Monaco is in the books and we have reached our final stop in the European three-race schedule. Lando Norris finally bounced back in Monaco for his first career win over there and first season win since Australia.
Despite a hot start, Mercedes had a lackluster performance in Monaco, with Kimi Antonelli finishing P18 and George Russell at P11. Max Verstappen came up just short against his rival Lando Norris and his Papaya teammate Oscar Piastri after taking his second mandatory pitstop with 4 laps to go. Charles Leclerc nearly had another storybook ending in his home race, but second will do.
España, estamos aqui. Let’s get it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Is Lando Norris Back? I 2025 Spanish Grand Prix Picks
We are just about hitting mid-season with the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix, and there are multiple angles for drivers to pass their opponents. But stay tuned for those.
The FIA announced it would clamp down on flexi-wings, which brings in a new technical directive for the first time. This specifically affects the car’s front wings.
Will this make a difference? Given that it’s already the middle of the season, it could. Pulling an IndyCar (sort of, not really) may have an impact. However, I personally think it won’t make a huge difference.
Barcelona is a high-speed track with quick corners, so their tires will be pushed to the limit. Red Bull will be very strong. All the drivers know this track very well, since testing took place in Spain prior to this year. However, potential hot weather means tires will take a pounding, so this is something to keep an eye on. It’s tricky to overtake but the OG circuit change positively helps overtaking.
Meanwhile, Lando Norris looks to build off a solid win in Monaco and surpass teammate Oscar Piastri in points. Can he do it in Spain? Let’s dive into it.
2025 Spanish Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Barcelona is an iconic city with just as iconic of a track. Anything can happen in F1: there is no silver bullet here. However, there are a couple of key things to keep an eye on.
The McLaren drivers finished on the podium six times out of the eight races, so look for them to continue slightly adjusting their strategy and utilizing the speed once again on a high-speed track. However, this could hurt them too with just one bad move in qualifying.
Max Verstappen’s odds have dropped quite a bit, despite winning the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix two weeks ago. There is noticeably a steep drop in outright odds after the top seven drivers; Kimi Antonelli is at +3500, followed by Yuki Tsunoda at +15000. This tells me that the books do not have too much faith in a majority of the drivers in this race, which makes sense given weather, experience and the potential situation around tires.
Oscar Piastri (+175)
Despite finishing third in Monaco, Oscar Piastri still leads the Drivers’ Championship by three points, so it makes sense to have the tied-highest outright odds. His youth can sometimes throw his confidence off a bit after some errors, but Piastri has shown to bounce back after what he considers disappointing finishes.
His tires will certainly help, similarly to those of Lando Norris and Max Verstappen. I still believe in Piastri, but last week showed that one race makes a difference and his teammate can easily surpass him in España. Lando Norris is someone to keep an eye on, but Piastri’s speed and assertiveness will certainly give him an edge. This is a good, safe bet.
Lando Norris (+175)
If you’ve been following this season, you likely may be tired of seeing two McLaren drivers with identical outrights. However, the season has shown why books continue to put them evenly, this time at +175, and the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix is not any different.
Lando Norris is fresh off a big win in one of the hardest races and tracks in racing. It also tastes better knowing that this is his first Monaco win, too. His confidence and momentum are through the roof and the Brit can thoroughly do it again in Spain.
His teammate may be having a better year, but Norris has shown he can clean up his mistakes in qualifying. This is another safe-ish bet that I’m willing to make when he’s hungry for more.
Max Verstappen (+330)
Max Verstappen’s odds dipped slightly, but there’s enough juice here for a little solo bet or as an addition to your parlay. Despite leading for much of it, Verstappen missed out on the podium in Monaco after an interesting second pit stop before the race ended. However, he is known to dominate Barca like Real Madrid has done the past several seasons.
He won the Spanish Grand Prix in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Red Bull’s car is improving and exhibiting superior speed and aerodynamics, which has significantly helped Verstappen and even teammate Yuki Tsunoda here and there. Barca’s track favors the high downforce and fresh tires, so this could be a big weekend for Red Bull if they manage everything correctly. I still have my concerns, but Red Bull has shown to pick it up.
I’m confident in the Dutchman. I say that every other week, but his dominance in Spain helps make this a solid bet. Simply lovely.
2025 Spanish Grand Prix Dark Horse
Charles Leclerc (+1400)
I’ll admit, I was close to putting Carlos Sainz as a dark horse, given that he has excelled in his home race in the past. He is the Smooth Operator after all. But +15000 is too high for me. However, +1100 for a Top 4 finish will get you some safe money. Williams is slowly improving and rising in the ranks, which is a line I never thought I would say.
Despite the Smooth Operator’s success, the top dark horse I’m eyeing this week is Charles Leclerc. He may not have won his home race last weekend, but he did finish P2. Leclerc has not won this season yet, but he is heating up at the right time as we approach the mid-point. Charles Leclerc is overdue for a win and I think +1400 is a solid option with the odds significantly dipping after Kimi Antonelli.
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Oscar Piastri
- George Russell
- Carlos Sainz
Thank you for reading my 2025 Spanish Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Sam Navarro – USA TODAY Sports*
