As the NASCAR Cup Series schedule has shifted throughout the years, traditions of the past have come and gone. The Southern 500 didn’t take place on Labor Day weekend for quite some time until recently. Daytona no longer holds its traditional “Firecracker 400” on Fourth of July weekend either. But on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend, you’d better believe the Coca-Cola 600 is taking place at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
The nightcap of auto racing’s greatest day, NASCAR’s longest race is arguably its most underrated crown jewel. In the modern era of races getting shorter and ways to win the big ones changing, this 600-mile thrill ride is a test of skill and endurance.
No bottle of Coke will ever taste better than the one in victory lane after claiming the jewel, but who will be drinking it this year at the Coca-Cola 600?
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Berry Looks to Claim a Crown Jewel | 2025 Coca-Cola 600 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Charlotte is a traditional 1.5-mile D-shaped oval, drawing close comparisons to other recently-raced tracks. Both Texas and Kansas, the sites of the Cup Series’ most recent two points races, are direct comparables.
Las Vegas is another direct comp, while Homestead and Michigan data also factor into calculations in our ifantasyrace.com IBT Betting Model.
- Charlotte Next-Gen Average Finish
- Charlotte Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Charlotte Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Kansas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Texas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Las Vegas I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 High-Speed 1.5-Mile Average Finish
- 2024-Present High-Speed 1.5-Mile Total Speed Rankings*
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Charlotte Bonus
*Excluding Homestead and Michigan
1st: William Byron (A-, 90%)
2nd: Tyler Reddick (B, 82%)
3rd: Christopher Bell (B-, 81%)
4th: Alex Bowman (B-, 81%)
5th: Kyle Larson (B-, 80%)**
6th: Josh Berry (C, 73%)
7th: Chase Elliott (C, 72%)
8th: Ross Chastain (C, 71%)
9th: Chris Buescher (C, 70%)
10th: Joey Logano (C, 70%)
**Kyle Larson did not start the 2024 Coca-Cola 600. The No. 5 was driven by Justin Allgaier. Allgaier’s data from this race has been included in Larson’s rating.
The model shows us the expected who’s who of skilled intermediate drivers in 2025. Josh Berry, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano have already won races this year at courses that are directly comparable to Charlotte.
Each of them could add an extra win to their resumes, but there’s a better place to start.
2025 Coca-Cola 600 Picks & Predictions
Christopher Bell (+700)
The best place to start this week is with the Coca-Cola 600’s defending champion, Christopher Bell. None of Bell’s wins this season have come on intermediate tracks, but the No. 20 can easily go back-to-back at Charlotte.
Bell led 90 laps in last year’s race and 48 in the 2023 race here, but finished P24 in the latter. 2022’s Next-Gen Charlotte debut saw the Oklahoma native finish P5. Looking at his recent record on similar tracks, he finished runner-up at Kansas and P3 at Darlington, placing him on the podium in our model.
Lest we forget, no one will feel better heading to Charlotte than the guy who just won a million bucks and the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race!
William Byron (+750)
All of the drivers at Hendrick Motorsports have been lightning fast on intermediates in 2025, but I’m riding with William Byron’s model-topping prediction.
Heading to his home track, the Charlotte native has led in each of the three Next-Gen races here, finishing P2 and P3 the last two seasons. All in all, Byron has three T5 and four T10 finishes on this course, leading for 202 laps in eight career starts at Charlotte.
In terms of recent results, Byron looked to be a contender at Kansas, but had an early issue and finished 24th. However, the No. 24 dominated at Darlington, finishing runner-up, and earned a P4 at Las Vegas in the spring, which bodes well for this weekend.
Josh Berry (+2500)
It’s safe to say that Josh Berry is a legitimate weapon on intermediate tracks in 2025. The numbers show it, putting Berry near the top of our model.
Though issues have popped up with the No. 21 team, it hasn’t stopped them from earning strong results on this track type all season. Obviously Berry’s Las Vegas win is the highlight, but he also led 41 laps at Texas before crashing and he earned a P6 finish at Kansas.
Berry’s only Cup start at Charlotte was a P10 in the Coca-Cola 600 last year, leading seven laps in the process, but he could easily pull out a win this year.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Coca-Cola 600 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Randy Sartin – USA TODAY Sports*
