Every track in NASCAR has history behind it. I’ve waxed poetic about many so far this year. But there’s nothing out there quite like Talladega.
The Alabama town has become synonymous with NASCAR. Its pop culture references have certainly helped that along, thanks to Eric Church and Will Ferrell.
Off-track shenanigans aside (including the old burial ground legend), this superspeedway will chew you up and spit you out quicker than you can say its name. Home to “The Big One,” last fall’s Talladega race featured the largest crash in Cup Series history.
But to win at Talladega and survive the chaos is a feather in a driver’s cap that is well worth the wildness. Here’s to turning up and to the shake and bake.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michael McDowell Hopes to Hit Hail Mary | 2025 Jack Link’s 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Talladega is a 2.66-mile superspeedway wider and longer than any track on the NASCAR circuit, which makes it an oval without a true comparison. However, Daytona and Atlanta feature the same style of racing, so they are relevant enough to be a major part of this week’s model stats:
- Talladega Next-Gen Average Finish
- Talladega Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Talladega I and II Average Position
- 2024 Talladega I and II Driver Rating
- 2025 Daytona 500 Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2025 Atlanta I Average Position & Driver Rating
- 2024 Daytona & Atlanta Average Finish
The chaos of late-race crashes at superspeedways probably is what kept the overall driver averages down this week. But recent Daytona 500 winners Austin Cindric and William Byron have more than respectable numbers at the top of the board. Each driver from P5 through P10 in our model has won either at Daytona or Talladega, with five of those six doing so in the Next-Gen era.
For me, this week’s picks aren’t about an endorsement of the model; they’re all about the longshots. While there’s always a skill and a science to winning anywhere, Talladega is still a great equalizer. Those who may not have a shot on a weekly basis can get it done here.
2025 Jack Link’s 500 Picks & Predictions
Michael McDowell (+2200)
Spire Motorsports is in an interesting place at the moment. We’ve seen their cars have strong speed at times, but finishes haven’t always come with it. Pair that with Rodney Childers leaving the organization this week and it leaves more questions than answers.
What isn’t a question is that Michael McDowell has plenty of superspeedway prowess. The 2021 Daytona 500 champion may be one of the more boom-or-bust drivers at the end of these races, but consistently running up front near the end is just as much skill as it is luck.
The No. 71 finished in the top 13 at both Daytona and Atlanta earlier this year, nearly adding to McDowell’s 14 career T10 finishes on superspeedways.
Driving for Front Row Motorsports in 2024, McDowell won the pole for both Talladega races and led 78 laps in the process.
Ross Chastain (+2500)
Ross Chastain isn’t like my other two picks in that he can win at most tracks on the circuit on his day in his equipment. But he’s one of the drivers at long enough odds to take advantage of, especially being a past winner here.
The Florida native’s 2022 win at Talladega is one of two T5 finishes here, to pair with three Daytona T10 finishes. Chastain was runner-up at both 2022 Atlanta races and has four T10s and 117 laps led in the Peach State.
He’s been picking up steam in general as well, finishing top seven in each of the last three races in 2025.
Cole Custer (+6500)
There’s not really anything redeeming about Cole Custer that makes him a great pick to win this week. But Custer is one of several drivers who must be realizing that a race like Talladega is their only hope at a win and its subsequent playoff berth.
The No. 41 has started 2025 quite poorly, currently at 35th in the standings with no top-20 finishes. Haas Factory Team hasn’t been anywhere near even the most pedestrian standards that Stewart-Haas Racing set. The California native also has just two T10s on superspeedways in his Cup career.
But Custer can do what he did at this year’s Daytona 500; if he can keep out of trouble and be near the front at the end, he can give himself a chance to change the narrative.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Jack Link’s 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
