We are just a week away from the 2024 NFL season officially kicking off! On Thursday, Sept. 5, the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, will battle the Baltimore Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium. Then, on Friday, Sept. 6, a young Green Bay Packers team will face the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil, marking the first international game of the season.
Let’s take a look at a couple of NFL Week 1 Underdog Pick ‘Em predictions for these two highly-anticipated games.
NFL Week 1 Underdog Pick’Em Player Predictions
Jalen Hurts (QB Philadelphia Eagles) LOWER Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Though quarterback Jalen Hurts was the QB2 on the 2023 season with 366.8 total fantasy points, this was mostly through his rushing abilities. His total passing touchdowns in the season equaled just 23, which ranked him 13th based on this statistic. Breaking down to an average of 1.4 passing touchdowns a game last year, Hurts is unlikely to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns in Week 1. Facing a tough Green Bay Packers defense in Brazil offers additional challenges. This defense only allowed 1.4 passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks per game in 2023.
Notwithstanding these factors, the team just added receiver depth in Jahan Dotson from the Washington Commanders, who needs to acclimate to his new team. In addition, tight end veteran Dallas Goedert is currently injured. I anticipate Hurts relying on his rushing abilities in this game and dumping off to elite running back Saquon Barkley. I’m taking the lower on this Underdog Pick’Em prop.
Derrick Henry (RB, Baltimore Ravens) HIGHER Than 67.5 Rushing Yards
After playing eight seasons with the Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry signed with the Baltimore Ravens this past offseason. Over his last six years as the Titans’ starting running back from 2018-2023, Henry averaged 94 rushing yards per game played.
Even though the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense was the eighth-toughest against the run in 2023, Henry is a monster on the ground. Head coach John Harbaugh loves to run the ball. In this first game, he will want to prove exactly why the Ravens sought to acquire traditional bell-cow back Henry for their offense. Always finding a way to pummel through, Henry will dominate the ground in this game. Smash the higher on this Underdog pick’em prop of 67.5 rushing yards.
Jayden Reed (WR, Green Bay Packers) HIGHER Than 46.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Wide receiver Jayden Reed impressed with his first NFL season, seeing 912 combined rushing and receiving yards in 2023. This averaged to 57 total yards per game. Coming into this season as the purported WR1 for the Green Bay Packers offense, Reed looks to shine once again.
Going against the Philadelphia Eagles defense, who were the second-worst in allowing opposing receiving yards, Reed will have no problem exceeding this Underdog Pick’Em prediction of 46.5 rushing + receiving yards.
Injuries have also plagued the Green Bay running back room. Both AJ Dillon and rookie MarShawn Lloyd are currently sidelined, and it’s unknown when either back will be cleared to return. Because of this, the Packers may look to Reed to aid with some carries as the season begins. Hit the higher on this line, and don’t look back.
Patrick Mahomes (QB Kansas City Chiefs) LOWER Than 263.5 Passing Yards
On the heels of the Super Bowl LVIII win, the Kansas City Chiefs are looking to have another successful season. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face the staunch Baltimore Ravens on their home turf in the opener. The Ravens were the sixth-toughest defense against opposing quarterbacks in 2023, only allowing an average of 214.1 passing yards per game.
Though Mahomes is no stranger to popping off deep passes, he averaged 261.4 passing yards per game last season. The 2023 AFC Conference Championship was the last time these two teams faced. In this contested foray, Mahomes saw 241 passing yards, so I anticipate Mahomes to fall short of 263.5 passing yards. Take the lower on this Underdog Pick’Em.
Let’s get pumped. The NFL is back, baby!
There you go with my Underdog Pick’Em predictions for the first two games of NFL Week 1! Remember, with any Underdog Pick “Em play, follow your gut on the lines you agree with. Always play responsibly. And always, always make sure you’re having fun with it!
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*Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports*