The dust is beginning to settle as the NASCAR Cup Series season heads to its first “normal” track. But it’s the dust of the Arizona desert that provides the site of the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
Not too far removed from November’s championship festivities, it’s not too hard to imagine who will be contending this weekend. There’s certainly a pattern that has emerged among the cacti out west.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryan Blaney Dominant in the Desert | 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Phoenix Raceway, host of the championship race since 2020, also features a yearly early-season event. The one-mile short-flat track has no shortage of comparisons. Each of Richmond, Gateway, New Hampshire and Iowa are logical comp tracks for Phoenix.
However, the added wrinkle of the softer, faster option tire is in play at this race. This will be the third race featuring the option tire following last season’s Richmond race and the North Wilkesboro All-Star Race. Teams will have two sets of option tires available for the race.
Here are the stats used in collaboration with ifantasyrace.com for the Phoenix model:
- Phoenix Next-Gen Average Finish
- Phoenix Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Phoenix I and II Average Position
- 2024 Phoenix I and II Driver Rating
- 2024 Shorter-Flat Tracks Average Finish
- 2024 Shorter-Flat Tracks Total Speed Ranking
We’ve also elected to keep the bonus points for recent starts in the Xfinity and Truck Series here.
It should be no shock that each of the top seven and nine of the top 10 have all been a part of the Championship 4 at Phoenix at least once. But it’s an interesting wrinkle that it’s the drivers in the lower half of the top 10 who’ve been the ones to win those fall races here.
The only potential wrinkle the model features outside of the norm is the potential of teams being in “early vacation mode” without much to race for in those season-ending events. It doesn’t seem to have affected the top of the board or the top picks for the weekend.
2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Picks & Predictions
Christopher Bell (+500)
Drivers don’t often win three races in a row, but Christopher Bell has a damn good chance to.
Dating back to last season, Bell is arguably the hottest driver in the garage. In the last 18 races, the Oklahoma native has finished P7 or better in 15 of those.
The No. 20 has won the last two races – on a superspeedway and a road course. His short track pedigree is even better than at those track types, showing why he blew our model away with a 96% IBT Grade.
At Phoenix, Bell won the spring race last year and has finished T10 in four of the last fivee races in the desert. His only blemish in that stretch was caused by an incident in the 2023 championship race.
Ryan Blaney (+600)
Though he’s a top driver and a champion, Ryan Blaney comes up second in a lot of ways here, including in my picks.
He’s the second favorite on the books for good reason, ranking second in our projections as well. Team Penske has been dominant at Phoenix, especially in the fall races when fighting for a title.
The No. 12 has done everything but win here, even when claiming the 2023 championship. Still, his stats are far better than your average winner of any given race. Blaney has four runner-up finishes in the last six Phoenix races and has finished T5 in the last seven races here, which includes every Next-Gen event. For his career, Blaney has finished T5 half the time (nine races) and has a 72.2% T10 rate.
Josh Berry (+3000)
Phoenix will show a lot about what we can expect from Josh Berry and Wood Brothers Racing into the meat of the season. Superspeedways have the unlucky tendencies and Berry is maybe the worst road course driver on the circuit. No one is happier to reach a normal, traditional oval than the No. 21 team, especially the shorter oval that Berry traditionally has success on.
When driving in good equipment, the Tennessee native has finished strongly here. Berry was 10th subbing for Chase Elliott in 2023 and earned three T8 finishes in his last 4 Xfinity Series starts at Phoenix Raceway.
He ranks 20th in the model largely because of unimpressive runs with the late Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) here last season. Still, with the short-track drive and Team Penske association, we will see if Berry has a good blend or keeps falling behind.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas– USA TODAY Sports*
