We’ve talked so often about all kinds of different race tracks this year. From historical venues revived to reconfigured tracks bringing new excitement, traditions continuing to new ones being born, and everything in between, the NASCAR Cup Series schedule has everything you could ask for.
These last three years, that’s even included racing on the streets of one of America’s most important cities.
The Grant Park area of Chicago, not far from Lake Michigan, serves as the race track where we celebrate all that America has to offer on Independence Day weekend. The fireworks will be taking place on the track. So far, we’ve seen a first-start winner and a perfectly-timed strategy play to claim checkered flags in the Windy City. We’re all on the edge of our seats to see what happens this year.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shane van Gisbergen Smooth on the Street | 2025 Grant Park 165 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
The 2.1-mile Chicago street course is obviously unlike any other course, even the other road courses on the schedule. Generally, as we typically say at each road course, being strong at one often means you’ll be strong at the others. We’re factoring in the past two races here, both affected by rain, but also focusing on stats from the full scope of road courses in this week’s IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Chicago Street Course Next-Gen Average Finish
- Chicago Street Course Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 & 2023 Chicago Street Course Average Running Position
- 2025 Mexico City Average Position
- 2025 Circuit of the Americas (COTA) Average Position
- Road Course Total Speed Rankings since 2024
- Road Course Finishes since 2024
- Xfinity Series Bonus @ Chicago Street Course
Both of the past Chicago winners, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) and Alex Bowman, are near the top of our model. But others with top road-course prowess are featured as well. Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher are all drivers with road-racing skill, and young Ty Gibbs has shown he’s got some, too. Fellow road course ace AJ Allmendinger slots in at P11, in case you were wondering.
With Mexico City’s debut Cup race taking place just a couple of weeks ago, the recency bias from that race will heavily affect my picks for this week as well.
2025 Grant Park 165 Picks & Predictions
Shane van Gisbergen (+185)
You’ll never see me bet an outright this short again, but it’s impossible to ignore Shane van Gisbergen at the track that put him on the map in the US. His first career Cup Series start ended in victory here in 2023 and 2024 was on track to be the same until he was out in a melee of rainy conditions before the race was red-flagged. That P40 is a big part of what knocks him to P3 in our model.
Even before his dominating victory at Mexico City, SVG already had a top-tier road course resume, with the series’ third-best average finish on the track type. Outside of last year’s Chicago crash, the New Zealand native has finished T10 in six of his other seven Cup road-course starts, including four straight T7 finishes.
That’s not even counting van Gisbergen’s trio of Xfinity road course victories in 2024, including right here at Chicago. He’s entered in both races this weekend, meaning a parlay with his Xfinity outright odds could be a more attractive bet as well.
Ty Gibbs (+1200)
The only driver who may have been able to fight off SVG at Mexico City was Ty Gibbs. If the No. 54 is going to win this season, it seems most likely that it will happen on a road course.
His P11 at Mexico City and three finishes outside the top 30 at road courses over the last year hold him down to P4 in the model, but strong Total Speed Rankings keep Gibbs near the top. Only SVG has been better than him at Chicago and Gibbs is sixth in the series on road courses dating back through 2024.
Chicago has been the best track for finishes as well for Gibbs, with a P3 last year and a P9 in 2023. Other road course highlights for the North Carolina native include top-5 finishes at each of COTA, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte ROVAL in 2023-24.
Chase Elliott (+1400)
Though he’s not the road-course king anymore, Chase Elliott has been hard to ignore when making lefts and rights. Last week’s winner is P8 in our model this week, ranking second-best in road course average finish in the Next-Gen era. The No. 9 has led nine percent of the laps and earned ten T5 and twelve T10 finishes in 18 road-course starts since 2022 began.
The Georgia native rounded out the podium celebration in Mexico City and has ranked on the theoretical podiums in three other Next-Gen road course races. Elliott was P4 at COTA and P5 at the Charlotte ROVAL and earned a P3 in 2023’s Chicago race.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Grant Park 165 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA Today Sports*
