It’s the Super Bowl, the one football game that we all hang out with family and friends, circling the date on the calendar.
It’s also a fan favorite forprop betting, like the over/under on the National Anthem run time, what color the “Gatorade Bath” will b, and whether the coin flip will be heads or tails. However, I’m not focused on those prop bets; I’m focused on the NFL player prop picks!
For those that don’t know, I regularly post “Three Stats” on my socials (Twitter/X, BlueSky and Facebook), featuring three fantasy football stats for a player, one from each team. Nothing is changing from that point of view, although it is now in article form.
I will also be changing it to be more prop bet-focused than fantasy points-focused. We at In-Between Media (IBT) are excited to partner with PropDecks and run a free NFL Playoffs PropDeck tournament (info below), where you can win a $200 Fanatics gift card, among other prizes!
With that said, let’s get into my player prop picks, using the BettingPros Consensus lines as of Feb. 5.
Top Three NFL Player Prop Picks for Super Bowl LX
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
It’s been the Kenneth Walker III show in the playoffs. He’s averaging 19 carries for 89 yards and two rushing touchdowns, along with 3.5 receptions for 39 yards in the two playoff games this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots have been shutting down RB1s in the playoffs, as no running back has over 37 rushing yards or 22 receiving yards against them, averaging just 28.3 rushing yards and 20.3 receiving yards.
- OVER 2.5 Receptions: I’m not going to lie, the under on the rushing yards looked intriguing. Still, there’s one number that is speaking out more to me, and it’s his receptions that stick out. Walker III has hit this number in three consecutive games and four of his last five. The only concern that I have with this number is that he has not had over three receptions in his last three non-divisional games.Still, I walked away from those concerns when I discovered that RB1s against the Patriots in the playoffs have averaged 2.6 receptions. In the regular season, the Patriots aksi allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position with 84.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
While the Patriots have gone five straight games not allowing a wide receiver to have more than 65 receiving yards, they have gone back-to-back games allowing a WR1 to score a touchdown. The Patriots’ final WR1 to face this season? None other than Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), who is averaging 6.5 receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs, scoring in both games.
- UNDER 93.5 Receiving Yards: JSN is averaging 86 yards in his two playoff games this season, but he’s only gone over the 93.5 receiving yard mark once in the last four games. He’s also going up against a defense that hasn’t allowed any wide receiver to surpass 65 receiving yards in five straight games. I’m going to go ahead and take the under.
- Anytime Touchdown: Despite the Patriots holding a WR1 to 20 receiving yards or fewer in back-to-back playoff games, they’ve managed to score a touchdown. Smith-Njigba has not only scored a touchdown in both playoff games, but he also put up a similar stat line in the Divisional Round against the 49ers, when he had three receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown.
Drake Maye (QB, New England Patriots)
Drake Maye is averaging 14.3 completions on 25.6 pass attempts for 177.6 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns and 0.6 interceptions in the playoffs. He’s also averaged eight rushing attempts for 47 yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, quarterbacks against the Seahawks in the playoffs are averaging 18.5 completions on 31 pass attempts for 257 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions and 3.5 carries for 26.5 rushing yards.
- UNDER 19.5 Pass Completions: Not including the weather-impacted AFC Championship game, Maye hasn’t hit this number in four straight games. Also, only Matthew Stafford has hit over this number against the Seahawks in their last eight games.
- UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts: Unlike the previous metric, the Seahawks are allowing an average of 31 pass attempts in the playoffs, just barely over this number. However, when you have only two playoff games to average, the numbers can get inflated. That’s what’s happening here, and that’s why I like the under. Maye has not hit this number in five straight games, and only Matthew Stafford has hit over this number against the Seahawks in their last eight games.
Thanks for reading my article on “Three Player Prop Picks for Super Bowl LX.” If you’re looking for more content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!
*Photo Credit: Kevin Ng – USA TODAY Sports*
