We made it through Week 15 and are onto Week 16, but it was a wild week! Did you survive the Kyle Pitts three-touchdown game on Thursday Night, or the other handful of players that went berserk on Sunday? What about the injury bug that has completely ravaged some of our teams? I’ve got good news. We’ve only got two (or three for you sickos) more weeks to hoist that fantasy championship or title belt, or to avoid the dreaded punishment. But I’m ready to face the challenge; we didn’t come this far to stop now. Let’s advance!
As always, I recap the previous week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” I came out as close to even as you could be. Shoutout to the wide receivers who absolutely killed it, with Jalen Coker having 6.1 points over projection and Ricky Pearsall overcoming injury in the first quarter to score 7.2 points over projection! It wasn’t just the wide receiver position; we got some help from quarterback Aaron Rodgers too, scoring 3.1 points over projection. The unfortunate part is that, like most of us who streamed him, Isaiah Likely likely did the impossible by not logging a single stat whilst playing the whole game against a team that has been historically bad against the tight end position. He and Kareem Hunt were the two whiffs, and I finished with only 0.9 points under projection overall.
I’m looking for some more big hitters, and wouldn’t you know? I think I’ve found some! Let’s get to it!
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Consideration: Week 16 Sleepers (2025)
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
The last time Trevor Lawrence was in this article, I joked that there was a new law in place as he had to throw the same number of touchdowns and interceptions. Now, that law doesn’t actually exist, but we do have a new prince ruling the fantasy football atmosphere. That prince is the long-haired Lawrence, who has gone three straight games with 229+ passing yards, 16+ rushing yards, at least two passing touchdowns, no interceptions and 19+ fantasy points.
The matchup sounds scary on paper, as it’s the Denver Broncos, but they actually haven’t been that scary in their last three games. More importantly, I want to look at two of the last three games. I’m going to exclude the Week 14 game against the Raiders, because it’s the Raiders and Geno Smith left the game early with an injury. However, in Week 13 against the Commanders and Week 15 against the Packers, the Broncos saw both quarterbacks have 276+ passing yards, 29+ rushing yards, a passing touchdown, an interception and 15.9+ fantasy points. Interestingly enough, the Broncos will face a quarterback who is averaging 267.6 passing yards, 30.6 rushing yards, three passing touchdowns and 27.8 fantasy points in the last three games.
Yes, this is probably Trevor Lawrence’s toughest matchup since that three-game span. But when a player is hot, you have to ride it out, despite the matchup, and that’s what I’m doing here.
Running Back
Michael Carter (Arizona Cardinals)
Another week, another Cardinals running back to write about. With James Conner, Trey Benson and Bam Knight all placed on injured reserve this season, the Cardinals have to rely on Michael Carter and Emari Demercado to hold down the backfield. But it’s not all bad, and in fact, where’s the uproar for Carter? Because quietly, in his last five games, he averaged 55 scrimmage yards (24 rushing and 31 receiving), with three of those games seeing 17+ rushing yards and at least three receptions for 30 yards and 8.8+ fantasy points! Yeah, he was doing that ALONGSIDE Knight. Now, move him up to the RB1 role and Carter should see even more opportunities!
Now onto the matchup, as the Cardinals take on the Atlanta Falcons. Similarly, the Falcons have allowed a running back to have 17+ rushing yards and 30+ receiving yards in five of their last nine games. On the rushing side, those five running backs averaged 98.2 yards and a touchdown. On the receiving side, they averaged 4.8 receptions for 48.8 yards. That equals out to 147 scrimmage yards and 25.5 fantasy points. Now, that’s a freakishly high total to project for someone, but it’s definitely in the realm of possibility when you have Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Yes, that was a real sentence typed in the year 2025. Fantasy football is weird. But Michael Carter should be in for a solid day as a sleeper starter!
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Washington Commanders)
Let’s switch it up. How about we go to a Saturday afternoon game? Now, Chris Rodriguez Jr. is still on the injury report as he missed last week’s game with a groin injury. I’d normally avoid a player who popped up on the injury report, but Rodriguez has practiced fully in all his sessions. Unless I hear reports to the contrary, I’d have to believe that he takes his RB1 role back and that’s one thing that is clicking with this offense. Last week, in his absence, Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 18 carries for 96 rushing yards and a touchdown. Looking back to Week 11, Rodriguez had 15 carries for 79 rushing yards and a reception for six yards.
If you’re not following along, that’s two Commanders running backs with 15+ carries with 79+ rushing yards and 9.5+ fantasy points. That’s not good news for a team that has struggled against the run lately, and one such team is the Eagles. The reigning Super Bowl Champions have seen four different running backs with 15+ carries in the last six weeks, and all of them racked up 74+ rushing yards and 12.1+ fantasy points. That’s just the minimum; I know you want the averages, and I’ll always be here to provide that for you! Those four running backs averaged 104 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns, along with two receptions for 15 yards for a total of 18.4 fantasy points. As long as Chris Rodriguez Jr. is starting, he should have no problem against the Eagles’ run defense.
Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills)
As I’ve said before, just like Shakira’s hips don’t lie, Khalil Shakir‘s stats don’t lie. Since the bye, Shakir has been balling out whenever, wherever, as long as it’s not in Buffalo. In those three home games, the receiver is averaging 3.3 receptions on 4.6 targets for 18.6 yards, 0.3 touchdowns and 7.2 fantasy points. Compare that to the five road games, where he’s averaging 5.4 receptions on seven targets for 65.2 yards, 0.2 touchdowns and 13.1 fantasy points. Is it a good time to mention that in four of those games, Shakir had 58+ receiving yards and 11.5+ fantasy points?
And what do you know, it’s another road game for the Bills! This week, they’re going to face the Browns in Cleveland. So, I dug up some stats on wide receivers with at least seven targets in every Browns’ home game this season. What I found was that they’ve allowed this in three of their last five home games, including last week. Those three wide receivers are averaging 5.6 receptions for 59 yards, 0.3 touchdowns and 13.5 fantasy points, with all of them scoring at least eight fantasy points. Khalil Shakir should dance all over the Browns on the road this week.
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)
A matchup so good that you’ve got to come back for seconds! I called Ricky Pearsall against the Titans last week, so why not run it back with Xavier Worthy against the Titans this week? Now, Worthy is currently in a bit more fluid situation, as Rashee Rice is in concussion protocol, and the vibes that I’m getting are that Rice will miss this game. To add on, the Chiefs will be forced to start backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. To be honest, it won’t matter if Rice plays or not; this is a good matchup for the speedster Worthy. I’ll even switch it up a bit to understand why I love this matchup with or without Rice. Of course, we can only use stats with Patrick Mahomes, but that’s fine.
In the three complete games where Worthy played when Rice was suspended this season, Worthy averaged 4.3 receptions on seven targets for 48.3 receiving yards, 17.6 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns. He averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game and didn’t score fewer than 10.6. The Titans have gone five consecutive games allowing the most-targeted wide receiver to get 76+ receiving yards and 15.6 fantasy points, and WRs scored a touchdown in four of those five games.
More recently, and alongside Rice, Worthy has gotten 35+ receiving yards in four straight games. His average in those games are 3.2 receptions on 5.5 targets for 52.5 yards, and 8.8 fantasy points. Conveniently enough, the Titans have allowed a wide receiver duo in two of their last five games to both have five targets, including last week! Both wide receiver duos were able to finish with 37+ receiving yards and 9.5+ fantasy points. With or without Rashee Rice, I think Xavier Worthy is going to feast.
Tight End
Brenton Strange (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Listen, I’m not a conspiracy theorist. But ever since the fifth season of Stranger Things was released, I think Brenton Strange has literally been in the Upside Down. Before the Netflix series was released, Strange had averaged 4.8 receptions on 5.6 targets for 55 yards and 10.3 fantasy points across his five complete games. Now, he’s in the Upside Down, because in the three games since it came out, he’s averaged 2.3 receptions on 4.3 targets for 32.6 yards, 0.3 touchdowns and 7.6 fantasy points. What’s even weirder is that he scored his first touchdown, snapping a 16-game streak, and has not surpassed 45 receiving yards in that span.
You can’t make that up! Do you know what else I’m not making up? That he’s facing the Broncos, the team that has allowed a tight end to have 46+ receiving yards and 9.2+ fantasy points in four straight games. Within those four games, a tight end has been averaging 6.7 receptions for 73.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 17.1 fantasy points. Shoot, I’d even be happy to see Strange hit the average of the last two games, which is four receptions for 49 yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 11.9 fantasy points. Quarterbacks have been having decent fantasy games against the Broncos lately, and they’ve been targeting the tight ends to make it happen, and Trevor Lawrence should do the same with Brenton Strange.
Thanks for reading this week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!
*Photo Credit: Travis Register – USA TODAY Sports*
