First off, happy holidays and merry belated Christmas! Mariah Carey says it best: “I don’t want a lot for Christmas, there is just one thing I need, I don’t care about the presents underneath the Christmas tree. I just want you for my own.” Clearly, we all know that she meant that fantasy football championship. Let’s celebrate Christmas and champions, alongside family and friends, and yes, even our opponents.
As always, I recap the previous week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” I know that chestnuts are roasting on an open fire, but I was also burning hot last week! I had my misses in Khalil Shakir (-2.2), Michael Carter (-4.5), and Xavier Worthy (-6.4). That’s fine, though, because as I said last week, I wanted big hitters, and they hit big! Chris Rodriguez Jr. had six points over projection, and that was the worst of the three hits. That’s right, I called the Jaguars stack of Brenton Strange (+6.7) and Trevor Lawrence (+14.5). Thanks to those big hitters, I had a pretty decent week with 14.1 points over projection!
Enough of last week: I have a list of sleepers, had Santa double-check if they were naughty or nice and he approved of them! So let’s give out these presents!
Oh, and if you’re new here, I always like to make the article more festive when it’s around that holiday! So, don’t be a Grinch and enjoy the Christmas carols.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Consideration: Week 17 Sleepers (2025)
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
This is not the same Baker Mayfield we’re used to seeing. In his last four games, he averaged 214.2 scrimmage yards (184.5 passing and 29.7 rushing), 1.2 passing touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions and 14.6 fantasy points. That included three games in which he was held to under 200 passing yards, threw a passing touchdown and scored 14.5 fantasy points or fewer. He got his weapons back in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving. Where’s that 19-point-average QB that we saw earlier this season?
I don’t need to see the ghost of Christmas past; I think we’re going to be seeing a glimpse of Baker Mayfield past. This matchup jingle bell rocks and that’s got me singing, “it’s a bright time, it’s the right time, to rock that rust away.” He’s facing the Dolphins, who’ve allowed a quarterback to have 224+ passing yards, multiple passing touchdowns and 17+ fantasy points in back-to-back games. And that’s just looking at the very recent past, because in six of the last seven games, a quarterback has put up 16.4+ fantasy points against these Dolphins. The only one who hasn’t was in Week 14, when Brady Cook had to come into the game for Tyrod Taylor. Those quarterbacks are averaging 249 passing yards, 19.6 rushing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns, 0.5 interceptions and 20.7 fantasy points. Expect a belated Christmas present from Baker Mayfield.
Running Back
Woody Marks (Houston Texans)
Welcome back, Woody Marks! Sucks that you missed a prime matchup last week, but you’re healthy now and that’s all that matters. So, just like we’re all “rockin’ around the Christmas tree,” how about you put that rock in the endzone as you have in your previous two games? Yeah, you read that correctly, he’s currently on a two-game streak of having 38+ scrimmage yards and scoring a touchdown, and it would’ve been higher if he hadn’t left the game in Week 15.
However, that actually brings up a good point. The Chargers have been ridiculously stingy against running backs in the past two games, so why do I like the rookie running back this week? Looking closer at the stats, no RB has more than 11 carries against the Chargers in the past two games, and the Texans like to have a running back run the ball at least 15 times per game, as they’ve done so in six consecutive games. In Weeks 12-14, Marks saw 16+ carries and had 64+ rushing yards in each game; he just couldn’t run it in for a touchdown. And what do you know, from Weeks 11-14, when four different running backs carried the ball 15+ times against the Chargers, three of them had 73+ rushing yards, a rushing touchdown and 13.4+ fantasy points.
I’ll be looking for some more of that from Woody Marks, and later we’ll celebrate with some pumpkin pie and some [premature] celebrating, since this game is on a Saturday afternoon.
Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons)
Nothing says “Wham!” like the running back position, because “this week, to save you from tears. I’m gifting you someone special.” That special player is Tyler Allgeier. He’s always on the unpredictable side, usually angering Bijan Robinson managers when he vultures a touchdown. I want to focus on these last four non-divisional games because his fantasy points are being scored in multiple ways. Despite not having more than 73 scrimmage yards in any of those games, Allgeier averaged 47.5 rushing yards, 15.5 receiving yards, 0.7 touchdowns and 12 fantasy points, scoring 8.3+ fantasy points in each of those four games!
Luckily, this is another non-divisional game, as the Falcons are playing the Rams on Monday Night Football. It’s one of those times where the matchup looks scary on paper, but you know me, I look closer at the stats! Did you know that the Rams have gone back-to-back games allowing a running back duo to have 32+ rushing yards and 9.2+ fantasy points in back-to-back games? Or that the Rams have also allowed a 9.2+-point running back duo in three of their last four games? Wait, there’s more! Silly me, how could I forget?! Allgeier loves to vulture touchdowns, and the Rams have allowed three different running backs to score a touchdown in their last two games.
All that to say, “this Championship, I gave you my heart… so don’t give it away,” Tyler Allgeier.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers)
“Santa, tell me, is Allen really here?” Yes, I really put Keenan Allen on here in a tough matchup. I’m taking a different approach to this one, so you’re going to have to follow me; it’ll all make sense, though! Since the bye, Allen has scored the most fantasy points out of anyone in the Chargers’ WR core in two of those four games. In the two where he didn’t, it was a matchup where both Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston scored a touchdown, and the team they faced was in the top ten for most fantasy points allowed to the position. Is it starting to click yet? Because in the other two matchups, Allen led the receivers room in fantasy points, and those two teams are in the top 13 for fewest fantasy points allowed to the position.
To me, that sounds like if it’s a tough matchup, Justin Herbert looks for his security blanket in the veteran receiver, and it pays off. The Texans have allowed a WR with five or more targets to have 43+ yards and 9.4+ fantasy points in back-to-back games. So, yes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Keenan Allen, who has five receptions and 8.6+ fantasy points in back-to-back games, is the Chargers WR that does the best against the Texans.
Rashid Shaheed (Seattle Seahawks)
“And so I’m offering this simple phrase: he keeps averaging over 9.2. Although it’s come three straight times, in many ways.” (Sing it like “The Christmas Song” from Nat King Cole and it’ll sound good.) I’m talking about Rashid Shaheed, who has scored 9.1+ fantasy points in three straight games, and it has come in many ways! In two of those games, he even had a special teams touchdown! Then, in a different set of two games, he had at least five targets, with 67+ receiving yards and 10.7+ fantasy points.
I thought for a second that Cooper Kupp might have retaken the WR2 role after last week’s game, but the more that I think about it, the more I believe that was a one-off type of game. Excluding last week, Shaheed was starting to show that he is the WR2 for the Seahawks, the one they traded for. And we can’t forget the matchup! The Panthers have allowed a WR2 to have 30+ receiving yards and eight fantasy points in their last three games, and in those games, they are averaging 4.6 receptions for 52.3 yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 13.9 fantasy points. Just remember, you can’t forget the many other ways! Like the bonus points on special teams, or even that, as a former New Orleans Saints player, Rashid Shaheed has familiarity against the Panthers.
Tight End
Darren Waller (Miami Dolphins)
“Oh, at first he sounded frightful, but he’s been quite delightful, and since we’ve got no place to go, Let Me Show, Let Me Show, Let Me Show,” why I think Darren Waller is a sleeper this week! Although it was Quinn Ewers at quarterback instead of Tua Tagovailoa last week, the results pretty much stayed the same. Since returning, Waller has finished three of his last four games with 40+ receiving yards and 6.7+ fantasy points. But that’s not what we know him for; we know Waller for his touchdowns!
So, when Waller went had receptions for 40 yards against the Bengals, who are historically bad against the position, he did alright! But you might want to look underneath the tree, because there’s another present; it’s facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have also been bad against the tight end position! In fact, they’ve been even worse than the Bengals in the last five weeks. It’s so bad that they’ve allowed three tight ends in that span to have 41+ receiving yards and a touchdown.
Remember when I said Darren Waller is known for being that red-zone threat and scoring touchdowns? The Buccaneers are one of four teams this season to allow double-digit touchdowns to the position, and they’ve allowed six of them in the last five weeks, the most in that span.
Heck, it’s the holidays, let’s add a bonus! For those deeper leagues, look at his teammate Greg Dulcich, who has gone for 40+ receiving yards in three straight games, playing alongside Waller.
Thanks for reading this week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!
*Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA TODAY Sports*
