Ladies and gentlemen, we survived Week 1 and the “Week 1 Wackiness!” The stats still look a little wacky as the season is just getting started, but at least we have one week of the current NFL season in the books to clear up the picture a little bit.
As always, I recap the previous week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers” and boy, oh boy, did it get hit with the wackiness. Chris Rodriguez Jr. was originally listed as a sleeper, but he was ruled inactive as a healthy scratch, and I promptly posted everywhere on my Facebook, Twitter/X and Bluesky that I am replacing him with Jacory Croskey-Merritt, as I didn’t think anyone anticipated Rodriguez being inactive. On the bright side, “Bill” or “JCM” joined Wan’Dale Robinson and Jordan Mason as three of the six players to score over their projection. The not-so-bright side is that I also included Cooper Kupp and he brought the whole squad down, scoring 8.8 points under projection. Altogether, the total was 6.2 points under projection.
But that was Week 1 and the wackiness is to be expected! Let’s look ahead to positivity, knowing we have more current statistics under our belt, and get to Week 2’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.”
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Consideration: Week 2 Sleepers (2025)
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
This isn’t my first rodeo with you, C.J. Stroud. Yes, that 9.7 fantasy point performance in Week 1 looks absolutely abysmal and now you’ve got a whole lot of doubters. Luckily, I think I have the right solution for Stroud! How about facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?!
Last week, the Buccaneers allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Despite the fact that passing yards are always statistically relatively low in Week 1, they allowed the Falcons to have 298 passing yards, which was the fourth-most of the week. It’s not anything new either, as the Buccaneers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. What’s even wilder is that they’ve gone five consecutive games (including playoffs) allowing a quarterback to have 200+ passing yards, throw a touchdown, not throw an interception and score at least 14.7 fantasy points.
Now, let’s take an even closer look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced and it makes me love Stroud even more. In order: Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. Other than Daniels, nobody really screams fantasy weapons to me. Oh, and in case you were wondering, the averages for those quarterbacks were 260.2 passing yards for 1.6 total touchdowns and 18.6 fantasy points. It should come full circle, because I think we all want Stroud to revert to that impressive 2023 rookie season, and his average fantasy points per game that season? 18.5.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker III (Seattle Seahawks)
Now, we take advantage of this “Week 1 Wackiness.” Everybody is freaking out about Kenneth Walker III since Zach Charbonnet did everything better than Walker in Week 1. Yes, I know Charbonnet played nine more snaps and had two more rushing attempts, converting it to 27 more rushing yards, a touchdown and 5.3 more fantasy points than Walker. But I really do think that was just part of the wackiness in Week 1. Just look at the Seahawks’ wide receivers, as Cooper Kupp played six more snaps than Jaxon Smith-Njigba and their receiving stat lines couldn’t be more drastically different.
Could it be a 50-50 split? Sure. However, I don’t think anything has changed, and Walker is still the RB1 in this offense. Even if the backfield is split, I think the Seahawks are licking their chops and looking at their opponent, the Steelers. Last week, the Steelers allowed the Jets’ running backs to have the fourth-most total yards for the position with 172. Most of that was with Breece Hall, who had 23 opportunities and gained 145 scrimmage yards and 16.5 fantasy points. Hall was also the only Jets running back to have a target, similarly to Walker, who was the only Seahawks running back with a target. And to cap off the similarities, many are saying Braelon Allen “stole” Hall’s touchdown, as the latter saw more snaps in the red zone and scored a touchdown, just like what happened with Charbonnet.
I’m sensing too many similarities here and that makes me think Kenneth Walker III will have a bounce-back game. Maybe it won’t be as big as the 16.5 fantasy points that Breece Hall had, but I’m sensing double-digits and that he should avoid the ugly eyesore of last week’s 5.4 fantasy points.
Woody Marks (Houston Texans)
Back to Houston, we go! The rookie, Woody Marks, might’ve only had three rushing yards in his debut, but that didn’t stop me from keeping my eye on him. I’m sensing the rookie might’ve already jumped up in the depth chart, or at least for this game. Why? Dare Ogunbowale had a costly fumble at the end of the game that sealed the Texans’ loss. Players often get benched for a drive or the rest of the game for fumbling, but the interesting part here is that it happened at the end of the game, signifying there might be more opportunities in this game for the rookie coming into Week 2.
Now, Marks might be buried in the depth chart, but he has receiving upside, especially if Ogunbowale gets “punished” for that costly fumble. Why not use his receiving prowess against one of the two teams that allowed 100+ receiving yards to running backs last week? It’s not a one-week thing either; the Buccaneers allowed 655 receiving yards to running backs last year, the fifth-most in the league. In fact, looking at last year’s stats, there were four running backs with five or fewer carries that got 25+ receiving yards and they averaged 11.4 fantasy points.
If Woody Marks gets the opportunity, take advantage and run away with it, rookie!
Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills)
Shakira’s hips don’t lie and Khalil Shakir‘s stats don’t lie, either! Last week, Shakir was tied for the second-most targets for the Bills with nine. Keon Coleman might’ve stolen the spotlight, but Shakir still put up solid numbers with six receptions for 64 yards. He’s done it consistently, too. Since the playoffs started last year, he saw six-plus targets and 46+ receiving yards per game, scoring at least 10.6 fantasy points per game with an average of 11.9 fantasy points, although no touchdowns in that span.
That’s great! Did you notice what the Jets allowed the Steelers to do last week? The Jets allowed two wide receivers with six-plus targets to have 70+ receiving yards and score 12.3+ fantasy points! The other targeted wide receiver, Ben Skowronek, had only one reception and scored a 22-yard touchdown on it. The Jets struggled against wide receivers last week, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Maybe that was part of the “Week 1 Wackiness,” but I don’t think so. Not to mention, Josh Allen and his wide receivers are no joke, as they are the second-highest wide receiver core in fantasy football right now, albeit with only one week of data.
Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)
I think Daniel Jones might’ve found his favorite wide receiver on the Colts and it’s definitely Michael Pittman Jr. Last week, Pittman blew all of the other Colts’ wide receivers’ numbers out of the water. The former USC Trojan put up a stat line of six receptions on eight targets for 80 yards and a touchdown, good for 20 fantasy points! The other Colts receivers combined for five receptions on eight targets for 69 yards and 13.4 fantasy points. I actually theorize that he’s getting used to not being with Anthony Richardson, because in his last three games without Richardson, he averaged seven receptions for 87 yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 19.7 fantasy points. In all those games, Pittman went over 72 receiving yards and 13.2 fantasy points.
Now, I know the first thing that’s going to happen when I mention his opponent, the Broncos. Everybody’s mind went immediately to the matchup against 2024’s Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II. Then, I took a closer look at the two games where both Pittman and Surtain played, and shockingly, it hasn’t been that bad for Pittman, especially compared to other wide receivers. The Colts vet has averaged 5.5 receptions on 8.5 targets for 58.5 yards and 11.3 fantasy points in games played against Surtain. Like I said, somewhat shocking.
Sometimes the numbers can lie, but with the Colts on an all-time high and Michael Pittman Jr. putting up strong numbers against his matchup, combined with the little hot streak he is currently on, I think he’ll find success again this week.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers)
I’m keeping a close eye on the Steelers’ tight end room. Pat Freiermuth played only 50% of the snaps in Week 1, which was nine fewer snaps than Jonnu Smith. But guess who had the most receiving yards of the group? That’s right, Freiermuth had 28 receiving yards compared to Smith’s 15. By the end of the day, Freiermuth scored 5.8 fantasy points.
Even though Smith looks to be the TE1 of the group, we saw that Freiermuth can still provide fantasy points. Why can’t he do it again this week facing the Seahawks, the only team to allow two touchdowns to the tight end position in Week 1? Interestingly, the Steelers’ tight end group combined for eight receptions, 43 yards, a touchdown and 18.3 fantasy points, which was very similar to what the Seahawks allowed in Week 1 to tight ends (eight receptions, 44 yards, two touchdowns, and 24.4 fantasy points).
It might be a mixed number and a headache thanks to Arthur Smith’s “TEBC” (Tight End by Committee), but the opportunity is there against the team that allowed the most fantasy points to the position and Pat Freiermuth is still pretty solid.
Thanks for reading this week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions,” Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ or on BlueSky!
*Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher – USA TODAY Sports*
