Simply lovely; Max Verstappen made a brilliant move in the first lap of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix and never looked back. Imola is in the books and Formula 1 now travels to the most iconic race of them all: the Monaco Grand Prix.
Although driving is a different story, it is my favorite race as a spectator and analyst because of my personal connection to Monaco. When I studied abroad for the winter term during my junior year of college, my group made a stop to Monaco on the way to Italy via bus. We drove on the same track and nearly took the exact routes as the actual race.
There are two and a half headlines in the Monaco Grand Prix this year: the thin Driver’s Championship race, Ferrari’s hopes and Williams continuing to creep up. Oscar Piastri is still in the lead for the Driver’s Championship with 146 points and McLaren teammate Lando Norris is next behind at 133 points. Max Verstappen sits at third, with his win boosting him to 124 points. Any member of this trio can certainly take the lead here with a dominant Monaco finish. Meanwhile, Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz are inching closer to the podium and helping Williams have their best year (so far) in a hot minute. Ferrari is also showing some flashes.
Monaco is a big one, so let’s get into it!
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Will Max Verstappen Surpass McLaren? | 2025 Monaco Grand Prix Picks
Motorsports betting is a beast on its own, but the Monaco Grand Prix is arguably one of the hardest tracks to predict and pick from. It’s a very hard track with thin roads, so overtaking is nearly impossible. One slight move will land you in the walls. Because of this, the race tends to be slower and can be hard to follow.
One thing to note is that the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) has installed a mandate of two stops throughout the race, so strategy will certainly play a bigger role in Monaco. This is the one race where you have to be locked in for qualifying. Whoever finishes on podium will likely win the Monaco Grand Prix.
McLaren is still leading the way despite Red Bull picking up a W in Imola, but their two-pit strategies have cost them in the past in Bahrain and arguably also in Japan. Their car makes up for it and Red Bull’s car is showing improvements each week, but they are still known to struggle on slow corners, which are prominent on Monaco’s track. Ferrari is showing promise and coming off a storybook ending with Charles Leclerc breaking the curse in his home race last year. However, they still face struggles with the car and both drivers’ lack of confidence going into Monaco.
Verstappen is still a bit away from Piastri, but a win would solidify that he is back in full force. Can he continue the momentum in a tough car on a difficult track? Red Bull struggles on slow corners, but counting out Verstappen? That’s another story.
2025 Monaco Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Due to the difficulty of this iconic race, there is no clear dark horse here. Truly anything can happen in Monaco. History favors drivers like Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, but compare their situations. There are some single props to highlight in a parlay or individually if you’re not feeling as bullish. I would also keep an eye on one of the Aston Martin drivers finishing in the top ten (or both, yes Lance Stroll too). Fernando Alonso at +100 is a safe bet and Stroll at +400 is intriguing, but consider a low-risk reward for a two-pick Aston Martin parlay. As much as I want to see back-to-back Monaco wins for the hometown hero, it’s going to be very tough with Ferrari’s lackluster season so far.
Oscar Piastri (+180)
Despite finishing third in Imola, Oscar Piastri remains the favorite as the current leader in the Driver’s Championship. He has four wins thus far, so it makes sense that he is tied with his Papaya teammate in the odds. Verstappen pulled a solid, veteran turn on the Aussie at Tamburello and never looked back. However, Piastri still has the confidence and fire in him to bounce back on a very difficult course. McLaren usually benefits from this kind of circuit, but strategy is something to keep an eye on. Can Zak Brown make the right calls to help both of his drivers? Winning the Monaco Grand Prix will take even more thorough strategies with the mandatory two-stop rule. This concern also goes for Lando Norris, but Piastri has generally been the more consistent and faster driver all year. He has also shown his strong mental game by bouncing back from a disappointing weekend. I would not count Oscar Piastri out just yet.
Lando Norris (+180)
Lando Norris finally surpassed his teammate in Imola and his qualifying showed it. He was the stronger driver last weekend and his experience does play a factor in Monaco. Either way, the Papaya have the biggest advantage of all the teams, so a 1-2 McLaren finish is highly likely. Norris at +180 is certainly a safe bet given his P2 finish in Imola and being just outside his teammate in the Driver’s Championship race. It would be foolish to completely count out the British driver despite his teammate’s consistent dominance. While I still have some minor questions, Lando Norris is not a bad bet to make outright because you still cannot go wrong with either McLaren. The bigger question is whether they can keep Max Verstappen off or not.
Max Verstappen (+400)
Tu du du du. The Formula 1 world finally heard the Dutch National Anthem for the second time this season after a classic Imola win. Max Verstappen at +400 has a tiny bit of juice this week simply due to racing in Monaco. Red Bull’s car improvements are slowly paying off, but it is still concerning driving on a track with slow corners. If the car works well, unlike last season’s disastrous outing, Verstappen can win his third Monaco Grand Prix.
While this podium prediction is fairly difficult, it’s fair to bet on Verstappen given his track record and momentum carrying from Imola. I expect a big battle between him and the McLarens with a sprinkle of Mercedes to keep an eye on. Of course, Charles Leclerc too. I’m going with the momentum Max Verstappen carries here as I have some reservations on the Papaya’s decision-making amongst complicated circumstances (if I’m proved wrong, oops).
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Max Verstappen
- Oscar Piastri
- Lando Norris
- Charles Leclerc
- George Russell
- Alex Albon
Thank you for reading my 2025 Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Sam Navarro – USA TODAY Sports*
