Each and every new season has one constant: change. Although change among drivers at the NASCAR Cup Series level was slight heading into 2026, crew members, lower series and everything in-between change a great deal each year.
That includes our methodology of the IBT Betting Model, as well as how we’ll be presenting it.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
William Byron Goes for the Triple | 2026 Daytona 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
We’ve brought on Chris Collichio from Flag Hunting to assist Seth and Ryan of ifantasyrace.com in our betting model, which now includes more stats than ever. The model remains exclusive to our paid members of the IBT Racing Family, which you can join here, however we are providing the Daytona 500 model for free this week!
Free members of the In-Between Media Family will still be able to access memorabilia giveaways and the general chat, but full model access will require the premium upgrade in the future. Even though we won’t be previewing the model in an article each week, you can always hear us discuss it, and our best bets factoring in the model data, each week on The Backroad.
For the Daytona 500, we’ll run it back just like we did each week of the 2025 season, with a preview of model stats, its top ten drivers and a trio of outright bets to consider.
Statistics we have weighed in this year’s Daytona 500 model include:
- Daytona Driver Rating (last 3 years and career)
- Daytona Average Finish (last 3 years and career)
- 2024-25 Daytona Average Start & Finish
- Next Gen Daytona 500 Loop Data
- 2023-25 Daytona 500 Averages
- Average Comp Track Starting Position & Finishes (2024-25)
- Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings at Daytona and Talladega
- Talladega Driver Rating
- Next-Gen Daytona Driver Rating & Top 10 Finishes
With a great deal of statistics weighed, plus the variance you see at superspeedways, it brings the total percentage numbers down for the week, but the top driver is still quite respectable at a 75%:
They say C’s get degrees, and they may also get you the Harley J. Earl Trophy. The three drivers worth picking are all in that realm of scores.
2026 Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions
William Byron (+1000)
He’s won the last two Daytona 500s, so why not a third? 10-1 isn’t my favorite number for him, but the resume puts the odds where they are.
Kyle Busch (+1400)
Weirdly enough, it’s been road courses and superspeedways for Kyle “Rowdy” Busch over the last few years. With the presence of Shane van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch, he’s not worth touching on road courses, so superspeedways it is. This would be a heck of a debut for new crew chief Jim Pohlman to finally get Rowdy his Daytona 500 win.
Chris Buescher (+2500)
It’s tough to ignore the top of the model! RFK Racing has been strong for years on superspeedways. Regardless of whether they have three or four cars in the race, it’s safe to say a couple of them will be near the front at the race’s end.
Thanks for reading my 2026 Daytona 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Mike Dinovo – USA TODAY Sports*
