In a fantasy landscape currently focused on rookie drafts and dynasty start-ups, I thought it would be interesting to see where things stand for redraft purposes. With that in mind, I recently hosted a 2024 redraft, superflex fantasy football mock draft with a group of fantastic analysts. It was a 12-round, Points Per Reception (PPR), tight end premium draft done on the Sleeper app.
These industry experts included:
- Marcas Grant – Fantasy Analyst, NFL Media
- Jay Felicio – Writer, The Athletic; Video Editor/Producer, FTN Fantasy
- Robbie – CEO, Rumboyz/Community, Underdog Fantasy
- Erika Brown – Contributor, Fantasy in Frames/The League Winners
- Joey Wright – Community Ambassador, Footballguys
- Jeremy Popielarz – Featured Analyst, FTN
- Michelle Magdziuk – Editorial Researcher, NFL Network
- Ashley – Host of “The Undroppables Playbook”
- Kate Magdziuk – Fantasy Analyst, PFF/”Locked On Dynasty”
- Pat Fitzmaurice – Managing Editor/Analyst, FantasyPros
- Seth Woolcock – Founder/Editor-in-Chief, In-Between Media (IBT)
- Rachel – Writer, IBT
Redraft is the most common format of fantasy football played, from the casual player to the seasoned vet. By seeing where players line up this time of year, including the yet-to-be-drafted rookie candidates, there are insights to be gleaned about current Average Draft Position (ADP) trends, positional rankings and the influence of recency bias.
2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft
The Early Rounds (No. 1-4)
In the early rounds of this draft, there are a few surprises to highlight. Currently ranked No. 1 by both the Footballguys‘ quarterback rankings and Sleeper ADP, Josh Allen fell to 1.06, where Jeremy drafted him. Is there concern that Allen’s fantasy value will decline following the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis? Believing in second-year success, Joey and Pat took C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson in the first round at 1.05 and 1.09, respectively. These sophomore players were picked ahead of quarterbacks Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott.
There wasn’t anything unexpected for the running backs and tight ends during the early rounds; Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall came off the board as the top three running backs drafted by Erika, Michelle and Joey, respectively. Since this was a draft with a tight end premium, I took Sam LaPorta at 2.01. He was the only tight end to haul in 11 touchdowns in 2023, and I anticipate another big year for him. Rounding out the early rounds, the other higher-tiered tight ends chosen were Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts.
The Stefon Diggs Mystery
When it came to wide receivers, Stefon Diggs was drafted at 3.08 by Ashley, and he was the ninth wide receiver off the board. His current ADP on the Sleeper app is 24.1, so this was a pick based on that value. Due to his recent trade to the Houston Texans, Diggs is a player with enormous uncertainty surrounding his fantasy relevance.
In his first three years with the Buffalo Bills, Diggs averaged 1,396 receiving yards. The 2023 season saw a dip in his production, although he still had a healthy 1,183 receiving yards. What will his production look like on the Texans’ offense, which also includes Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz? Diggs is currently ranked No. 29 on Footballguys and No. 19 on FantasyPros. This suggests concern with Diggs’ fantasy value on his new team. Interestingly, he was drafted eight WRs ahead of his teammate Nico Collins, who was taken by Joey with the 5.05 pick.
It is unknown what the 2024 season will hold for Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ offense. Similarly, no one knows how Diggs will fare on the Texans’ offense with C.J. Stroud at quarterback since there will be a lot of mouths to feed there. But talent is undeniable. Jeremy didn’t hesitate to snatch up Allen. Ashley went all-in on Diggs to pair him with her other receiver, Tyreek Hill.
Also taking advantage of value, Marcas got a steal with Chris Olave at the 4.12, which was much later than his Sleeper ADP of 31.6 and after receivers D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman and DeVonta Smith had all been taken.
The Middle Rounds (No. 5-8)
Four of these fantasy analysts waited until the middle rounds to shore up their second quarterback under these superflex settings. Two of these included Seth taking Matthew Stafford at 7.11 and my pick of Baker Mayfield at 7.12. NFL.com’s QB Index Rankings from the 2023 season have Stafford ranked as No. 5 and Mayfield at No. 11. So, with their elite stats last year and these rankings, why is their ADP so low? Stafford is currently sitting at 88.8 on Sleeper ADP and Mayfield at 98.1. In addition, both will have their main offensive weapons back this year; Stafford has Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and Mayfield has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Sometimes, in drafts, we fantasy managers get caught up on names that are getting a lot of hype. For Seth and myself, we weren’t going to ignore the fact we could get both of these fantasy-relevant quarterbacks where we did.
Getting the tight end steal of the draft, Michelle took George Kittle at 5.07 as the 10th tight end off the board. Footballguys has him ranked as the No. 7 tight end, and FantasyPros has him ranked at #6. Of course, being the 49ers fan that she is, Michelle stacked Kittle with her quarterback, Brock Purdy. When it came to running backs in the middle rounds, Robbie took Zamir White at 8.10 as the 25th running back off the board, though FantasyPros has him ranked No. 30 and FootballGuys has him ranked No. 33. But here is where rankings don’t tell a complete story. Zamir White will likely be the starting running back for the Las Vegas Raiders, regardless of the team signing Alexander Mattison, so keen fantasy managers can get value where others might be scared away.
Recency Bias
Another interesting development in this mock was Cooper Kupp falling to the 5.11, where he was drafted by Seth as the 19th wide receiver off the board. Kupp finished the 2021 season as the No. 1 wide receiver overall and capped that year off by being named the Super Bowl LVI MVP. However, during the 2022 season, Kupp suffered a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss the end of that season. He subsequently missed the beginning of the 2023 season with a hamstring injury. As a result, the injury affected his productivity considerably. Kupp finished the 2023 season as the PPR WR40 wedged between newcomer Dell at WR39 and the ever-inconsistent Gabe Davis at WR41. In addition, we saw the rise of Puka Nacua last year, who remarkably finished his rookie season as the WR4 . This later draft pick of Kupp was quite possibly influenced by recency bias, as his ADP is currently 39.1.
Another prime example of recency bias was Seth grabbing Rashee Rice as the 34th wide receiver off the board, despite the fact Rice is currently ranked No. 20 on FantasyPros and No. 14 on Footballguys. Even though he has a Sleeper ADP of 57.3, Seth got him at the 8.02 pick. Not surprisingly, there is reluctance to draft Rice due to his current legal trouble following his involvement in a car crash. It’s unclear what the NFL will do in terms of suspension, so fantasy managers may be hesitant to gamble on Rice.
Similarly tied up in that question, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is ranked No. 40 on FantasyPros and No. 44 on Footballguys, but he was the 29th wide receiver off our draft board at 6.11 by Jay. If Rice does sit for a period of time, it’s Brown who will feast on the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, and Jay wasn’t going to pass that opportunity up.
The Late Rounds (9-12)
In the late rounds, I took J.J. McCarthy at 11.12 as the 27th quarterback off the board. This was quite possibly a reach, as he’s currently ranked No. 36 by Footballguys and No. 31 by FantasyPros. However, this draft spot wasn’t too far off from his Sleeper ADP of 135. Whichever rookie quarterback gets drafted by the Minnesota Vikings will likely secure a starting role early on, and I leaned into a possible homer pick, taking McCarthy. Robbie took Drake Maye (North Carolina), another possible candidate for Minnesota, at 12.10, which was also a considerable value according to Maye’s Sleeper ADP of 100.
Drafting their second tight ends in these rounds, Ashley took Dallas Goedert, Erika acquired Luke Musgrave and Robbie picked up Cole Kmet. When it came to the running back position, rookies Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum and Jaylen Wright were drafted by Joey, Jeremy and Kate, respectively. Depending on their landing spots, any or all of these backs could have significant fantasy value in 2024.
Also, along the lines of running back uncertainly, the Cincinnati Bengals have a perplexing backfield coming into this next season. For this mock draft, Marcas drafted Chase Brown at the 11.01, and Michelle took Zack Moss at 11.07. Brown was the 35th running back off the board and is currently ranked No. 37 on FantasyPros and No. 45 on Footballguys. Moss was the 37th running back taken, which is in line with his rank of No. 36 on FantasyPros and No. 34 on Footballguys. These positional rankings suggest that there is not a clear consensus on who the RB1 for the Bengals will be for 2024. Will there be a competition at training camp? Will the Bengals employ a running back-by-committee style?
Plant Your Flag
Later rounds also provide opportunities for drafters to plant their flags on who they think has a chance to be fantasy-relevant. For his dart throws, Jay picked up second-year running back Kendre Miller at the 10.11 and third-year receiver Jahan Dotson at 11.02. Similar to the shots taken with the rookie running backs above, shots were taken at rookie wide receivers. Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted at the 11.06 by Jeremy and Xavier Worthy was taken by Michelle at 12.06. Ladd McConkey was Mr. Irrelevant of this draft with Marcas’ pick at 12.12. All of these players currently have ADPs that wouldn’t typically make a draft like this (229, 193 and 199, respectively), but as a group of fantasy football analysts with the NFL Draft nearing, there were flags planted firmly in the sand.
Different Builds & Strategies
The absolute joy of having a diverse group of analysts is seeing how each person builds out their team. Let’s take a closer look at a few from this mock.
Kate’s Team
Let’s first take a look at Kate’s team. She anchored her squad with star receiver Justin Jefferson at the 1.09. Because she took one of the top receivers, she waited to draft another one until Deebo Samuel at 6.04. Going the sneaky route at quarterback, Kate drafted Kyler Murray at 2.04 and rookie Jayden Daniels at 4.04. Due to an ACL injury, Murray didn’t play for the beginning of the 2023 season. The Arizona Cardinals have the fourth-overall pick in the NFL Draft and will have a promising season with Murray if they can draft a rookie receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr. Daniels is a rookie quarterback projected to go in one of the early picks. If he lands with a team like the Washington Commanders or the New England Patriots, Daniels will have a starting role this fall.
Locking in her running back room, Kate picked up Kyren Williams in the third round. She followed this pick with Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift and rookie Jaylen Wright in the later rounds. I especially loved her Josh Palmer pick at 12.04. With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone, Palmer figures to have a starting role right out the gate for the Los Angeles Chargers.
Pat’s Team
For Pat’s team, he capitalized on second-year starting quarterbacks, taking both Anthony Richardson and Jordan Love in the first two rounds. Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury at the beginning of the 2023 season, and we NFL fans were shortchanged in seeing his talent play out. Therefore, there’s a lot of buzz for Richardson coming into this next season. Knowing that the draft settings were tight end premium, Pat took the third tight end off the board with Trey McBride at 4.03. Finishing last season as the PPR TE7, McBride had an astounding 825 receiving yards on 106 targets.
Going all-in on rookie wide receivers, Pat drafted all three of Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze in rounds No. 5-7. These are strong prospects coming into the NFL Draft, and Pat monopolized the chance to get all three. Stacking Love with receiver Christian Watson, Pat also took advantage of the rising Green Bay Packers offense. No wonder that the Packers also happen to be his favorite team and are division rivals of my beloved Vikings. For his running backs, he grounded his team with RB De’Von Achane at the 3.10 and didn’t take another running back until Rhamondre Stevenson at 8.03 and Brian Robinson at 9.10.
My Team
I drafted from the 12th spot in this mock, which has its pros and cons. Because I couldn’t get one of the elite quarterbacks in the first round, I took CeeDee Lamb as the third wide receiver off the board at 1.12. I decided to implement a bully tight end strategy, which is one of my favorite styles. I took LaPorta at the 2.01 and then later rookie Brock Bowers at the 8.01. There’s a lot of excitement surrounding Bowers and the promise for his rookie year. Taking LaPorta in the second round was a considerable reach, with his Sleeper ADP being 25.6. Ignoring that fact, I snatched him for my team because I just really wanted him.
Consequently, though, I suffered a cost at the quarterback position. I was backed into a corner to take Trevor Lawrence at 3.12, who I am not high on for 2024. When the Jacksonville Jaguars signed Mac Jones to backup Lawrence, something about it made me uneasy about how the organization views Lawrence. I know this is Jones we’re talking about, yet I’m still apprehensive. Lawrence was the 16th quarterback off the board, coinciding with his FantasyPros rank of 14, yet I still was disappointed in my pick. Later on, I adjusted and stacked Mike Evans with Baker Mayfield at the 6.01 and 7.12. I anticipate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense will continue to build upon their success from 2023.
Other Notable Strategies
Zero RB: Prioritizing other positions first, Jeremy didn’t take a running back until rounds six and eight. The strategy worked in his favor as he got starters James Cook and James Conner.
Hero RB: With this strategy, a player anchors their team with an elite running back and doesn’t take another RB until filling their other starting positions. Erika employed this by taking the PPR RB1 from the 2023 season, Christian McCaffrey, at the 1.04. She waited until round No. 8 for her next running back.
Overall Balanced Approach: Marcas seamlessly balanced all positions throughout the draft rounds, taking full advantage of the 1.01 draft spot.
Takeaways
Doing a 2024 redraft, superflex fantasy football mock draft ahead of the NFL Draft goes against the grain in the current fantasy landscape consumed with rookie drafts and dynasty start-ups. However, this kind of mock is useful in showing us current ADP trends, how positional rankings correlate and the influence of recency bias. Things will continue to shift over the next couple of months as new information is gained.
We are just days away from finally finding out rookie landing spots in the NFL Draft. Incorporating those into our player projections, we will have a better understanding of the fantasy outlook for 2024.
Besides offering insights and lessons learned, a fantasy football mock draft with a great group of analysts and friends is just pure and simple: fun. This is what fantasy football is all about. There is a sense of community and camaraderie when we come together to draft. Being able to snipe players from your fantasy peers is highly satisfying. And getting sniped brings out the competitive spirit to come back and retaliate. Who wouldn’t love all of that?
Now, who’s ready to draft again?
See full draft results.
Thanks for reading. Hit me up on Twitter @tootsiepop6 for more fantasy football content!
*Photo Credit: Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports*