Since NASCAR moved the Cup Series regular season finale to Daytona, the drama has been kicked into overdrive.
Hosting the final opportunity to earn a chance at a championship in the “world center of racing,” a venue where anyone and everyone has a chance to win, is the perfect ending to the chapter.
Everyone’s got something to race for. But for about half the field, it’s the do-or-die moment of their season.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Bowman on the Brink | 2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Daytona’s superspeedway style is comparable in its own ways with both Talladega and Atlanta, now formally known as EchoPark Speedway. Atlanta’s narrower racing lines run more like old-school Daytona, but the long track distance and gridlock-like pack racing is otherwise only seen at ‘Dega. The trio’s uniqueness lends itself to a fairly simple IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Daytona Next-Gen Average Finish
- Daytona Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- 2025 Average Running Position at:
- Atlanta I and II
- Talladega I
- Daytona 500
- Atlanta & Talladega Average Finish Since 2024
As one would expect with the variance of superspeedway racing, the model’s top score is lower than average this week. Only Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace were able to break the 80 percent threshold, with P10 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. down at 63 percent.
Even though superspeedways are the great equalizer, it doesn’t mean those with impressive stats can be ignored.
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RFK Racing (Odds Vary)
I can’t help but include all three of the RFK Racing cars at the top of my picks this week. Each of the trio have shown their own flashes of brilliance at Daytona, and the team will hope to control the race as all three need to win to earn a playoff berth. This style was mastered a few years ago at the Xfinity level with Kaulig Racing, when they won three consecutive summer races in Daytona from 2019-2021. The only spot where it could get hairy is that all three will want to be the lead car earning the playoff berth.
Nevertheless, all three are worth a bet on merit alone. Chris Buescher won this race in 2023 and has earned at least three Next-Gen top ten finishes at each of the superspeedway trio of tracks. Brad Keselowski still has some of that superspeedway ace inside the cockpit; the No. 6 has a total of five superspeedway runner-up finishes in the Next-Gen era, including in June’s Atlanta race. And if Ryan Preece can keep all four wheels on the ground, he has a great shot at repeating his original P2 run from the spring Talladega race (although he ended up being disqualified).
Alex Bowman (+2500)
No one thinks of Alex Bowman as a strong superspeedway racer, but this year has been his strongest yet at this track type. The No. 48 driver finished T7 in three of four superspeedway races in 2025, including 32 laps led in June’s Atlanta race, resulting in a P3 effort.
Overall, the Arizona native has the series’ best superspeedway average finish in the Next-Gen at 11.6. Bowman’s 10.4 average finish at Daytona is tops in the series, as well in the Next-Gen among drivers with at least four starts. Four of his last five Daytona races have been top-six finishes, most notably, a runner-up in the 2024 Daytona 500. With a new winner almost certainly locking Alex Bowman out of the playoffs, he also has to approach this weekend as a must-win race.
Carson Hocevar (+3500)
Of any and all drivers in the Cup Series garage, there’s one that we know for certain will do whatever it takes to get to victory lane if given the opportunity. The theme of Carson Hocevar’s season has been to move forward at all costs.
One of his marquee moments of 2025 was a runner-up finish in the spring Atlanta race, followed by a P10 in June’s event. The No. 77 also finished P6 at Talladega this year. The Michigan native ran into issues in each of the last two Daytona 500s, but still earned a P11 last summer.
He may not have a lot of willing helpers, but Carson Hocevar won’t let that stop him from making moves on the track Saturday night.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Coke Zero Sugar 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports*
