The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs roll on at World Wide Technology Raceway this weekend. The Madison, Ill., track is also referred to as “Gateway” and St. Louis, but its most important title this week is as the second race of the Round of 16.
It’s the first appearance of the track in the playoffs, previously taking place during the summer. We’ll see if that shakeup can help to shake up the playoff leaderboard.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Austin Cindric Ace at the Arch | 2025 Enjoy Illinois 300 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Gateway’s 1.25-mile oval is one of the series’ short-flat tracks, important in the playoff context due to its similarity to Phoenix. Each of Iowa and Richmond also serves as a comparable in this week’s IBT Betting Model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Gateway Next-Gen Average Finish
- Gateway Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2024 Gateway
- 2025 Richmond
- 2025 Iowa
- 2025 Phoenix I
- Short-Flat Track Average Finish since 2024
- 2025 Conventional Track Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Gateway Bonus
Team Penske’s short-flat track dominance shows in our model, with all three of their drivers in the top seven and Penske-affiliated Josh Berry just missing out in P11. Austin Dillon’s success on this track type, including his Richmond victories, pushes the No. 3 into the top 10.
This track’s composition, combined with the playoff-race vibe, takes me right to the top for this week’s picks.
2025 Enjoy Illinois 300 Picks & Predictions
Ryan Blaney (+500)
I can’t step off the Ryan Blaney train this week, even at a relatively unattractive outright price. When you’re at the top of the model and leading the track’s total speed rankings, it tells most of the story then and there.
The No. 12 would have won this race last year if not for running out of gas on the final lap. Even with that P24 finish, Blaney’s 11.3 average finish at Gateway is still fifth-best in the series. The 2023 champion also has the top total speed ranking on short-flat tracks in 2025, helped by top-five finishes at Richmond and Iowa.
Austin Cindric (+1600)
Austin Cindric pulled off the performance of a lifetime at Gateway last summer, earning the top total speed ranking and taking the checkered flag. It was the culmination of overall success for the No. 2 here, with the second-best average finish (8.3) and fifth-best total speed ranking at Gateway in the Next-Gen era. It leads to a strong third place in this week’s model.
The playoff driver is third-best in total speed ranking on short-flat tracks in 2025, earning a P5 at Richmond and P12 at Iowa.
Kyle Busch (+2000)
There hasn’t been much up to Kyle Busch’s standard the last few years, but Gateway brings back good memories for “Rowdy.” The No. 8’s most recent win came here in 2023. Busch topped the total speed ranking chart in that race, as well as in 2022, where the Nevada native finished P2.
Last year’s P35 here lowers Busch to P18 in the model, as did other issues on short-flat tracks, but a P8 at Phoenix at least shows some glimmer of hope from this year.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Enjoy Illinois 300 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports*
