The story of automobile racing is told at no better place than “the Brickyard.” Indianapolis Motor Speedway plays host to the NASCAR Cup Series this week, as stock car racing’s best take on the world’s most famous oval.
Though the sport ran the road course layout here for a number of years, that event just didn’t have the same prestige. While the traditionally known “Brickyard 400” isn’t as famous as the Indianapolis 500, it still features as one of the crown jewels of NASCAR racing.
At the end of the day, everyone on the track is hoping to kiss the bricks that make up the start and finish line.
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Brad Keselowski Quick on the Bricks | 2025 Brickyard 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Indianapolis is the world’s most famous racetrack, partly because there’s nothing quite like it. The Brickyard is a 2.5-mile flat oval, with banking just over 9 degrees in the corners. Pocono draws comparison because of its unique shape and large size, while Michigan’s big horsepower also leaves it as a comparable. We use the former in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- 2024 Indianapolis Finish
- 2024 Indianapolis Total Speed Ranking
- 2024 Indianapolis Average Position
- 2025 and 2024 Pocono Average Position
- Pocono Next-Gen Average Finish
- 2025 Total Speed Ranking at Conventional Tracks
- Xfinity Series @ Indianapolis Bonus
This week, the model is fairly easy to make out in my opinion. The names that appear in the top six are all among the consensus best drivers in the sport, with the top two, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin, winning the last two oval races.
The model takes a sharp decline after that crew, giving perhaps its most clear-cut picks yet. However, that doesn’t mean I’m sticking just to the cream of this week’s crop in my picks.
2025 Brickyard 400 Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+500)
We normally don’t see Kyle Larson spend this much time away from victory lane. The No. 5 hasn’t won since the Kansas Speedway in May, and the team probably considers that to be a heck of a winless drought. Indianapolis could be the place to turn around their luck this week.
Larson is part of this week’s “Superior Six” in the model, placing at P4. Last year’s win at the Brickyard places him high, while previous Pocono finishes outside the top ten keep him off the top. I’ll definitely take his Indy stats more seriously, which include a trio of T10 finishes in the previous car.
The California native even has some of that mojo back already after some rough summer runs, with Dover being Larson’s first T5 finish in six races.
Christopher Bell (+1200)
Christopher Bell may have figuratively taken his foot off the gas after a white-hot start. The No. 20 is solidly in the playoffs with a trio of early-season wins, but maybe that’s hampered some finishes as of late. Bell’s last T10 finish on an oval was at Nashville and his last T5 was the aforementioned Kansas race in May.
But I see the speed moving over to Indianapolis as well, especially after seeing Bell run up front often last week at Dover. The Oklahoma native was P4 here last year and P12 in his only other start on the oval. Bell’s 9.8 Pocono average finish in the Next Gen car and high standing in the model gives me additional confidence in the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.
Brad Keselowski (+2200)
I’m sure Brad Keselowski is still wondering what could have been after last year at the Brickyard. The No. 6 led 35 laps late, but couldn’t make the fuel gamble stick and finished P21. We’re slapping the asterisk mark on that finish, and everything else is looking good.
Keselowski won here in 2018 and has three T5 and six T10 finishes on the oval configuration at Indianapolis. The Michigan native has led 20+ laps in each of the last two Pocono races, finishing T10 in both of those races. And to make things look even better, Keselowski has quietly been strong in the summer stretch across the board. The owner-driver has four T11 finishes in the last five races overall and has finished T10 in five of the last six oval races.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Brickyard 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Randy Sartin – USA TODAY Sports*
