The summer heat is firmly on the NASCAR Cup Series drivers at Richmond Raceway with just two races before the playoffs begin.
Those already locked into the 10-race championship battle will jockey for position and seeding. Teams on the bubble will race their heart out to remain above the dreaded cutline. And for those who are down and out, there are two more shots at nailing the Hail Mary and earning the victory they need.
The Virginia oval, once known as the “Action Track,” which featured race names with “excitement” and “rock and roll” front and center, becomes that red-hot spot with top-notch drama once again.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Briscoe Chasing the Victory | 2025 Cook Out 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Richmond’s 0.75-mile asphalt oval fits in perfectly with the short-flat track category. Some main comparisons include New Hampshire and World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway. Phoenix and Iowa, both having already hosted a 2025 Cup race, are our primary comparables in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Richmond Next-Gen Average Finish
- Richmond Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Richmond I and II Average Running Position
- 2025 Iowa Average Running Position
- 2025 Phoenix Average Running Position
- Short Flat Track Average Finish since 2024
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Ranking
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Richmond Bonus
Denny Hamlin has always been a top performer at his home track and runs away with the top of this week’s projections. This week’s top 10 has fairly clear team divides; Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) takes the top two, Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) rounds out the top five, and each of Team Penske and 23XI Racing features multiple cars, rounding out the top of the rankings. Starting right from the top is the way to go in this week’s picks.
2025 Cook Out 400 Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin (+400)
Hamlin and Richmond go together like peanut butter and jelly, or me and winning bets (in my dreams, at least). Hamlin’s 5.0 average finish here in the Next-Gen era is best in the Cup Series.
The No. 11 has a pair of wins, a pair of runner-ups and an additional T5 finish at Richmond since 2022. The Virginia native has five total wins and 20 T5 finishes in his career at his home track.
Hamlin has largely been on top of his game this summer. Prior to a pair of mid-20s finishes in the last two weeks, Hamlin had earned six T4 finishes in his last eight starts.
Ryan Blaney (+1100)
Ryan Blaney hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire at Richmond in the past, earning just two T10s here. But it’s his performance both lately and at the comp tracks that gives both me and the projections faith in the No. 12.
Blaney’s win and P4 at Iowa, as well as a pair of Martinsville wins in the Next-Gen, are solid performances on the comparable tracks to Richmond. The 2023 champion has finished T10 in each of the last four races, leading at least 14 laps in each.
Chase Briscoe (+1600)
Chase Briscoe is another driver without a great deal of Richmond success, but now that he’s coming into his own with Joe Gibbs Racing, he’s all but impossible to ignore.
Briscoe has four T5 finishes, three of those being runner-up, in the last five Cup races. The No. 19 has led multiple laps in nine of the last 11 events. The team also hasn’t started outside of the top three in five races or the top five in six races. He’s qualified top 10 for each of the last eight races and every oval race dating back to Kansas in May.
The Indiana native’s Richmond stats do hold him to a mediocre P20 in our model, earning two P11s and a P12 here as his best finishes. But judging by how well the previous No. 19 driver, Martin Truex Jr., ran at Richmond, Briscoe should be far better than his current odds to win all in all.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Cook Out 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Jamie Harms – USA TODAY Sports*
