It’s only been a matter of days since this year’s Super Bowl was put in the history books.
Good thing we’ve got the Super Bowl of stock car racing on deck.
The NASCAR Cup Series starts with the 2025 Daytona 500, as “The Great American Race” goes green Sunday, Feb. 16, at 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX. The series’ most prestigious race has been won by many of the sport’s best over the years. It’s also been home to drivers’ first wins and unbelievable upset victories.
Both categories are represented well in our betting model, powered by ifantasyrace.com.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chase Briscoe Wows With Stellar Speed | 2025 Daytona 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Daytona International Speedway is known for good reason as the “World Center of Racing.” The track opened in 1959 to promote the Cup Series and move racing away from directly on the beach. The 2.5-mile superspeedway features 31-degree banking in the corners and a back straightaway so long that drivers have said it feels like an airport runway. Its 18-degree tri-oval has been home to some of the sport’s most iconic finishes at its start-finish line.
Daytona compares most closely to Talladega Superspeedway, though the Alabama track is wider. Current racing packages also feature superspeedway-style racing at the narrower Atlanta Motor Speedway since its redevelopment prior to 2022.
Our 2025 Daytona 500 betting model relies heavily on last year’s Daytona races as well as other Next-Gen superspeedway stats. Here’s a full breakdown of the statistics we weighed in, followed by its top 10 drivers:
- Daytona Next-Gen Average Finish
- Daytona Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- 2024 Daytona 500 Average Position
- 2024 Daytona 500 Driver Rating
- 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Average Position
- 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Driver Rating
- 2024 Atlanta + Talladega Average Finish
Kyle Busch, who didn’t win a race in 2024, tops our model with its only “A” grade. A pair of Team Penske Fords, Joey Logano and Austin Cindric, have two of the three B grades.
Superspeedway races also have a high rate of attrition due to the chaos and crashes that come with them. Drivers outside the top 20 include past Daytona 500 champions Denny Hamlin, Michael McDowell and Austin Dillon, as well as 2025 pole winner Chase Briscoe.
The top of the model is hard to ignore, but it’s worth searching all around for the best value.
2025 Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions
Joey Logano (+1000)
The first place I’m looking on the model is to Joey Logano, the 2024 Cup Series champion. The 34-year-old grades out near the top of our model at runner-up, narrowly missing out on an “A” grade. The No. 22 won the 2015 Daytona 500 and finished T5 in both 2023 races here.
Atlanta’s new configuration has been good to the Connecticut native as well, claiming a pair of victories there. Add on a trio of Talladega wins, and Logano may have the best superspeedway resumé in the field.
Brad Keselowski (+1100)
All the attention this year seems to be about Kyle Busch trying to win his first Daytona 500, but Brad Keselowski also has never claimed the Harley J. Earl trophy by winning the season-opening event.
Keselowski has finished T10 in two of the last three Daytona 500s and was runner-up in the fall 2023 race. The No. 6 was runner-up in both of 2024’s Talladega races, which also helped his fifth-place model standing. Six Talladega victories and a pair of new Atlanta top-six finishes add on to a summer 2017 victory at Daytona.
Chase Briscoe (+2200)
Chase Briscoe wasn’t extremely high on our radar heading into Daytona Speedweeks. However, the No. 19 wowed on pole qualifying night, claiming the race’s top starting spot by running quickest in both rounds.
Briscoe ranks fairly miserably in our model, coming in at P27. Still, the Indiana native has run fairly well in recent years at superspeedways. He’s led the third-most laps in the Next-Gen era at Daytona.
With just four career T10s on superspeedways, Briscoe will hope that his debut with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) will finish as well as it started.
Check out all of our 2025 Daytona Speedweeks NASCAR betting content:
- 2025 Daytona 500 | NASCAR Betting Model (Members Only)
- Chase Briscoe Wows With Stellar Speed | 2025 Daytona 500 Picks
- Video: 2025 Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions | NASCAR Betting Odds
- Video: 2025 Daytona NASCAR Picks | Duels Reaction + Xfinity & Truck Series
Thanks for reading my 2025 Daytona 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports*
