It takes a lot to win a NASCAR Cup Series championship. Skill, determination and fast cars will help you get most of the way. Still, it takes a little magic to reach the sport’s pinnacle.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway, “The Magic Mile,” plays host to the Round of 12 opener. This track used to kick off the “Chase for the Cup,” and arguably still does the same now that the bottom four of the playoff field are knocked out.
It’s time to make the magic happen and claim the signature lobster trophy in the process.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Christopher Bell Loves His Lobster | 2025 Mobil 1 301 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
New Hampshire’s 1.058-mile asphalt oval fits perfectly into the short-flat track niche that we’ve been focusing on a lot lately. Richmond and Gateway have been primary comps where the series has recently raced, with Phoenix as another main comparable.
Stats from Iowa can also factor in similarly, while the paperclip-esque shape, like Martinsville, can play as a secondary comparison. We use all but the latter in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- New Hampshire Next-Gen Average Finish
- New Hampshire Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2024 New Hampshire
- 2025 Gateway
- 2025 Richmond
- 2025 Iowa
- 2025 Phoenix I
- Short-Flat Track Average Finish since 2024
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ New Hampshire Bonus
The most recent pair of Cup Series winners, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, top the model this week. Each driver in the model’s top 10 was a playoff driver in 2025, and all but eighth-place Josh Berry are still alive for a championship. I expect the title contenders and typical top-notch drivers to perform well here again this weekend.
2025 Mobil 1 301 Picks & Predictions
Christopher Bell (+330)
Some drivers have tracks where they consistently dominate. Christopher Bell’s dominant track has certainly been New Hampshire. Bell tops this week’s model, one of only two “A” grades this week.
The No. 20 is strong on the track type, with the top total speed ranking both here in the Next-Gen era and on short-flat tracks since 2024. He’s won two of the three Next-Gen races at “The Magic Mile” to add to his four Xfinity wins and a Truck Series win as the cherry on top.
Bell’s strong P7 run at Gateway and win last week at Bristol have cemented him once again as a title contender. A great New Hampshire run will only build on that confidence.
Chase Briscoe (+700)
While it’s been Bell and Hamlin taking the two most recent checkered flags, Southern 500 winner Chase Briscoe has stayed every bit as strong in the last two races. The No. 19 led 451 laps in the round and finished P2 and P9 at Gateway and Bristol, respectively, keeping it close to his Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) teammates.
The Indiana native has a pair of runner-up finishes (Gateway and Iowa) on short-flat tracks in 2025. His best New Hampshire finish came last year, when he also finished as runner-up. Overall, Briscoe has the fourth-best Next-Gen average finish here in the series.
Josh Berry (+4000)
There’s rarely a time when it’s worth picking a driver with three consecutive last-place finishes to win. However, Josh Berry may just be sneaky enough to do it. The No. 21 had an awful playoff run, failing to even finish any of the opening three races (and obviously being eliminated). Still, teams have won races after being knocked out before.
New Hampshire, where Berry ran P3 last year, could be a good opportunity. The Tennessee native has the eighth-best short-flat track total speed ranking in the series and, technically, the top average finish as well, in his lone start.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Mobil 1 301 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
Also, follow me on Twitter/X @ehicks39 for more NASCAR takes and betting advice.
*Photo Credit: Stan Szeto – USA TODAY Sports*
