Formula 1 is back after a week off, following an eventful first two races. McLaren is hot, and Mercedes sits behind them in the Constructors’ Championship race. Ferrari is… well, ferrar-ing. Red Bull has a new teammate for Max Verstappen and maybe just in time?
We remain in Asia, traveling to the Suzuka Circuit for the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix, and I’m back with my predictions and picks while sharing T5 finishes and the usual dark-horse winner.
This is a tough course, and it is anyone’s race. However, the rain intensity could impact the contest similarly to the Australian Grand Prix if it picks up this weekend, so I have predictions for both scenarios.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Will Yuki Tsunoda Shine in His Red Bull Debut? | 2025 Japanese Grand Prix Picks
The biggest stories in Formula 1 right now are arguably McLaren’s dominant season and Ferrari’s struggles. Both are because of water. However, after the Chinese Grand Prix, Red Bull announced some big news.
Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda immediately swapped seats prematurely after two poor races. Lawson is back with Racing Bulls (VCARB), and Tsunoda has joined Max Verstappen in Red Bull. McLaren is carrying all the momentum after their 1-2 punch finish, but Red Bull is not giving up. Not that there’s much of a choice.
With Yuki’s Red Bull debut in his home country, one might say this is solid timing. However, it’s a very tough position in which he finds himself. The question is whether the new Red Bull racer can handle the pressure; being in your home country helps, but Suzuka is a tough course with those hard corners and layers of grass. One bad move and any driver can be sent to the lawn. All signs are pointing to more McLaren dominance, but Tsunoda is someone to keep an eye on for fun.
2025 Japanese Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris (+160)
Overall, I am not thrilled with a lot of these outright bets for the Japanese Grand Prix (“The Backroad” will have more specific prop bets on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. EST). However, Las Vegas and the books are understandably riding the McLaren train. As noted, the Japanese Grand Prix is typically a tougher course to drive on because of the brutal speed and hard corners. What makes it unique is that it’s surrounded by grass, which means one bad move and a driver could DNF more easily than other courses. Also, keep an eye on the weather; there is currently a 50% chance of rain on Sunday, but that could increase.
McLaren’s MCL39 is showing why the Papaya is living its best life right now. Lando Norris is easily the faster driver of the duo, but his mistakes did catch up to him in China. He made a few during qualifying in Australia but held on to win. That being said, the British driver at +160 makes sense.
This is a slightly better bet than the Chinese Grand Prix. Formula 1 is trickier with trends than other motorsport betting, but until McLaren proves otherwise, I see one of them winning again. Norris has been mentally stronger in rainy races lately, so I think he gets an edge here.
Oscar Piastri (+175)
Norris’s teammate, Oscar Piastri, is coming off a huge home win in China and looks to build his championship case this season. While still early, he will easily become a favorite for World Drivers’ Champion if he pulls off a difficult Japanese Grand Prix win, and even more so in the rain.
Norris has statistically been the fastest driver this season, winning the fastest lap in both races. However, Piastri has been more headstrong and made fewer mistakes outside of the costly one in Shanghai. Like any motorsports race, everything depends on the weather. Still, if the Aussie is less aggressive in the rain and that helps him finish those corners, he could certainly win. His speed and ability to turn past any corner make Piastri a solid bet to win outright.
You can’t go wrong with betting a McLaren on Suzuka’s track. Piastri winning back-to-back races is a bit lofty, but this has enough juice to make it worthy, especially if you put it in a parlay with T6 finishes and so forth.
Max Verstappen (+700)
The fact that there’s a big jump in the odds from +175 to +700 shows one of two things: Either the books are McLaren fans, or they have no faith in the Red Bulls. One can argue that it is both, but one thing is inarguable: Max Verstappen is not racing like his usual self.
The Red Bulls’ car also has evidence of some serious balance issues, but +700 is still a nice bet to peep at, especially if it rains, given Verstappen’s success in wet conditions. That said, this outright line represents more of a Red Bull issue than a driver’s one. Unity is important in Formula 1, and Red Bull’s decision-making after the Sergio Pérez era is hurting their own drivers and feet. But that’s for another day.
Even with the Red Bull nonsense, you still cannot count out Verstappen. He is second in the driver standings (36 points), with George Russell (35) and Piastri (34) sitting on his tail. If you are feeling frisky, Verstappen at +700 is something to keep an eye on with the weather. This could make or break your bankroll, but either way, I expect him back on the podium.
Japanese Grand Prix Dark Horse
Yuki Tsunoda (+5000)
Yes, this is a bit of out of pocket for me… and maybe delusional? You may be wondering why Tsunoda is a dark horse after just expressing my concerns with Red Bull’s car when discussing Verstappen’s odds.
For starters, I don’t really see how Lewis Hamilton at +1100 is a dark horse this week, given the circumstances surrounding Red Bull and how far the lines are for the other drivers. The same goes for George Russell. He’s been on the podium for both races, so I expect him to be back on it again.
Given Red Bull’s situation with Honda and the difficulty of maintaining a true No. 2 driver behind Verstappen (outside of Perez and Daniel Ricciardo), Tsunoda is under a ton of pressure. He is also in a position where he needs to prove to Red Bull, Racing Bulls and other teams that he truly belongs with the big guns. He looks to show he’s more suited for Red Bull than Lawson.
Would I throw down my 401k for this bet outright? No, but I wouldn’t do that for any bet. Tsunoda will most likely struggle with the car’s balance, but if he succeeds, especially in the rain, there’s value here at 50-1. He also has the advantage of racing in his own country.
There are other bets I would hammer, but why not still throw in a small flyer on Tsunoda to win big in his Red Bull debut?
Top 5 Finish Predictions
If It Rains:
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- George Russell
- Oscar Piastri
- Charles Leclerc
If It Doesn’t Rain:
- Lando Norris
- George Russell
- Oscar Piastri
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
Thank you for reading my 2025 Japanese Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – USA TODAY Sports*
