Another week, another race. McLaren remains hot (and an expensive lawnmower) and Max Verstappen finally has a win under his 2025 campaign belt. Simply, simply lovely. Rookie Kimi Antonelli continues to impress for Mercedes, while Williams is standing out amongst the middle teams. Ferrari is still there, sort of. The big question is if Max can continue his dominance and surpass the Papaya so far.
Formula 1 continues with a trip to West Asia and the first Middle Eastern race of the season. I’m back with my 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix picks, along with T6 finishes and a dark-horse winner.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Is Max Verstappen Back to His Dominant Self? | 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix Picks
McLaren continues to surge with another dominant pole performance from both Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. However, Verstappen picked up his first win of the 2025 season after successfully holding both McLaren drivers down. Of course, Norris driving off into the grass also helped points-wise and with the memes.
Verstappen sits right behind Norris in the Drivers’ standings with 61 points, while McLaren is dominating everyone in the Constructors’ Championship race. Mercedes is a team to watch, not just in the race but also on the betting books. George Russell continues to have a solid season so far, and rookie Antonelli is on a run. He became the youngest race leader, surpassing Verstappen’s record at the age of 18 years and 224 days. Max was the previous fastest lap setter at 19 years and 44 days.
While Verstappen has won the previous two Bahrain Grand Prix races, McLaren notably struggled in 2022 and 2023. However, Bahrain is a Power Unit-focused track and known to be easier to overtake, so the Papaya drivers are definitely ones to watch this weekend. The weather is expected to be warmer than last year’s Bahrain Grand Prix, so keep an eye on teams with heavier tires to give out quicker.
2025 Bahrain Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris (+160)
It may be early in the season, but it’s becoming pretty much a toss-up for betting which McLaren driver wins outright. Norris currently has 62 points compared to teammate Oscar Piastri’s 49 points. However, the British driver has performed well in Bahrain, finishing P6, P4 and P4 in his first years even with a middle-tier car.
Leading in the Drivers’ standings will certainly make you a favorite and +160 is a safe bet given the unique circumstances McLaren faces with its drivers. Norris may have been the stronger driver on paper but his teammate has been much quicker and was on his bumper in Japan.
The next handful of races could decide the Papaya’s racing strategy as they head to Europe after a stop in Miami. Overall, I prefer betting on Norris to win just because of his history at Bahrain, similar to Verstappen’s with Japan.
Oscar Piastri (+180)
As noted, Piastri at +180 is tricky, largely because of his team’s strategy. During the Japanese Grand Prix, Zak Brown and company decided to make the Aussie cover from George Russell while attacking for victory instead of leading with Norris. Ultimately, I think McLaren’s strategy will come back to haunt them later in the season. Norris’s mistakes are slowly doing so as well, which makes this a tricky situation to bet on.
In my opinion, you can’t really go wrong with betting either driver to win outright. Piastri may be in third place with 49 points, but he is showing he is the stronger and faster driver of the McLaren duo. However, his limited experience at Bahrain compared to Norris is what’s keeping me from betting on Piastri to win outright. As an alternative line, a Top 2 finish at -200 is a safer bet and could potentially be paired with another driver winning for more juice. Either way, McLaren is still the team to watch.
Max Verstappen (+300)
Personal Red Bull fandom aside, Max Verstappen is back. He made history as the first driver to win four Japanese Grand Prix and is eyeing his third win in Bahrain. Verstappen is Verstappen, but tire degradation could present an issue for Red Bull on a much warmer track compared to the previous three races.
Verstappen at +300 is not as valuable as +700 in Japan, but I think this is a value bet. McLaren will be strong again, but I’m confident the Dutch driver will get his swagger back. Betting-wise, I’m hammering this and leaning towards Top 2 or 4 bets surrounding the Papaya. Aside from the unique moment with Norris, where the two were side-by-side after a slower Red Bull pitstop, it was smooth sailing for Verstappen. McLaren will do well. However, I expect Verstappen to continue his dominance, land on pole and ultimately hear the Dutch National Anthem.
Bahrain Grand Prix Dark Horse
Kimi Antonelli (+6500)
This is a true long shot for a reason. However, the Italian teenager is having a storybook start to his rookie season. He finished P4 in Australia and P6 in both China and Japan while making tons of history. He became the youngest driver in Formula 1 history to secure a race’s fastest lap. I boldly think that Antonelli will join Verstappen as another 18-year-old race winner.
His early accolades show that he will be a championship driver one day. Do I think he wins in Bahrain? No, but +6500 is a nice chunk of change if you bet big, so it’s something to take a look at. Given that his teammate George Russell also excels in Bahrain on top of their PUs, I see Mercedes having a solid weekend either way.
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Max Verstappen
- Lando Norris
- Oscar Piastri
- George Russell
- Charles Leclerc
- Kimi Antonelli
Thank you for reading my 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Manami Yamada/Reuters – USA TODAY Sports*
