¡Dalé! Formula 1 is heading to the United States with its first stop in Miami. The 305 is hosting its fourth Miami Grand Prix and McLaren looks to continue their dominant year, particularly Oscar Piastri. Lando Norris is eyeing back-to-back Miami Grand Prix victories, while Max Verstappen is hungry for his third win in the 305 (and just in general).
Since we last hit the track, Piastri has since taken the lead in the Driver’s Championship with 99 points. Fellow Papaya Norris has 89 points and Verstappen is right on his tail at 87. George Russell looks to continue making a statement for Mercedes with Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc is picking it up with 47 points. McLaren is far away from everyone in the Constructor’s Championship with 188 points. Mercedes is second with 111.
While I’m not the biggest fan of the track, I enjoy this race as a fellow American who appreciates Miami culture. It’s a fun Sunday afternoon.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Is This Max Verstappen’s Race To Win After Jeddah? | 2025 Miami Grand Prix Picks
Red Bull is still a mess overall, but they are picking it up slowly. They are more “rear-limited” and are inching closer to McLaren. They still have a ways to go, but one thing to keep an eye on is an angry Max Verstappen.
Much like an angry Kobe Bryant or LeBron James, you do not want to count out an angry Verstappen. He lost his battle to Piastri in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and finished P2, so he is even hungrier (see last year’s Brazilian Grand Prix highlights).
Mercedes is still looking solid this season, and despite Ferrari’s massive errors early on strategy-wise, Leclerc is getting hotter after his P3 finish in Jeddah. Lando Norris is still Lando and an easy favorite to bet on as the reigning Miami Grand Prix champion. However, until I see that he does not make any crucial mistakes in qualifying, especially in a sprint weekend, I’m still eyeing Piastri.
Overtaking is much easier on this track, given the smoother asphalt. It is also similar to Jeddah. However, the super-tight corner on the first turn is famous for causing early DNFs and crashes, so look for an energetic start to the race. It’s another sprint weekend, so there will only be one practice before the sprint shootout, qualifying, then the actual race. Speed is something to watch, so McLaren will be another favorite, along with Red Bull and Mercedes. I also see Carlos Sainz finishing in a P7 position or higher as he is picking it up in the Williams car.
2025 Miami Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Oscar Piastri (+150)
The Australian racer is on a heater right now with three wins and can easily snag his fourth in South Beach (well, technically Miami Gardens). Because Miami’s track is somewhat similar to Jeddah’s, Piastri at +150 makes a lot of sense, similar to the outright for Norris.
Piastri is showing why he’s the main guy at McLaren and not Norris. The Brit is a faster driver, but as long as his mistakes in qualifying keep happening, his teammate will capitalize on that. He’s that good in only his third Formula 1 season.
The line of +150 is better than last week’s +110, but it’s a safe bet. You can never go wrong betting on Piastri, even for a little bit of cash. He’s on a mission to prove that he can win the Driver’s Championship over his teammate.
While I will fade him, it’s a solid pick to add with a potential parlay or another 1-2 McLaren finish bet. The Papaya has the summer break or sooner to discuss which driver to build their strategy around, although ideally sooner.
Lando Norris (+150)
Lando Norris has come up short since winning the Australian Grand Prix, finishing in P2 twice, P3 once and P4 in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, he is due for a win. He has proven he’s the faster driver, but as I mentioned earlier, his mistakes in qualifying are harming his chances. He puts himself in harder spots to start Sunday’s race and while he can easily overtake, Piastri’s hot success is not helping the Brit.
If you combine that and his battle with rival Verstappen (and a sprinkle of George Russell and even Kimi Antonelli), he’s under a lot of pressure. However, he is also the reigning Miami Grand Prix champion. It makes sense why he’s also a +150 favorite to win. While it is not suggested to bet solely on trends in previous years, this is something to watch for.
Because this is technically another street race like Jeddah and Albert Park, Norris will thrive again with an even better car than last year. It’s a tough choice to choose between the Papaya drivers, but Norris is worth keeping an eye on.
Max Verstappen (+500)
Norris would be my pick if he wasn’t facing an angry Verstappen. One thing about betting on the greats in any sport is that you don’t count them out when they’re angry and have something to prove. You don’t count out an early LeBron James in his prime. Same with an angry Kobe Bryant or Patrick Mahomes. You do not count out Verstappen.
His line of +500 is certainly the polar opposite of Jeddah’s +1100. This tells me that they expect a big battle between the Dutch driver and the McLarens. He remains angry at Red Bull but is solely focused on bouncing back and pushing Piastri and Norris aside. He does not really have anything to prove, given his career accolades and resume for nearly entering his late 20s.
However, he’s only won in Japan and has finished in P2 twice, P4 and P6. He’s hungry like the wolf, and +500 is good enough odds to make a decent bet on, so I like Verstappen this weekend. Red Bull is overdue.
Miami Grand Prix Dark Horse
Charles Leclerc (+1400)
Kimi Antonelli is one of my favorite dark horses I’ve been watching this season. He’s off to an amazing start and showing that he belongs with the greats and big boys as a rookie. However, at +6500, I’m fading him outright, although I do like him at +1600 for fastest lap.
Lewis Hamilton is arguably on Formula 1’s Mt. Rushmore, or at least on mine. Yet I’m anxious to bet on him at +2500. He is picking it up finally, but he has not finished higher than P5 all season. I am slowly regaining trust in Ferrari, but after a disastrous start, I’m not ready to hammer these bets.
I am more confident in Hamilton’s teammate Charles Leclerc. He had a P3 podium finish in Jeddah and with a better car and adjustments going into the 305, I can see Leclerc doing some major damage. He’s regaining that confidence and +1400 is a neat value to bet him on outright. Not a bad place to look at.
Top 6 Finish Predictions
- Max Verstappen
- Oscar Piastri
- Lando Norris
- Charles Leclerc
- George Russell
- Kimi Antonelli
Thank you for reading my 2025 Miami Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman – USA TODAY Sports*
