We are back! Every motorsports fan’s favorite three words (well, minus the L word). It’s the first Formula 1 race week of the year, and the 2025 Australian Grand Prix is here!
Fresh off of “Drive to Survive” Season 7, we now get real-life Formula 1 action on top of NASCAR this weekend. It is simply lovely.
For those who are returning to the site for my picks, welcome back! To those who are new, welcome to the motorsports fandom, or maybe I should say the money-making club.
I’ll address the top 2025 Australian Grand Prix picks this week and provide my predictions ahead of each race week this season, starting down under, mate. I will also share my predicted T5 finishes and a dark horse winner.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Lando Norris Eyes Win Down Under | 2025 Australian Grand Prix Picks
“You’re a smoooooooth operator” (if you know, you know). To Formula 1 fans, unfortunately, last year’s Australian Grand Prix winner will not be on my list this week. Carlos Sainz was a smooth operator last season, but here’s an interesting trend. Since 2022, the previous winner of the race went on to Did Not Finish (DNF) the following season. Charles Leclerc won in 2022 and then DNF’d in 2023. Max Verstappen won in 2023 and DNF’d in 2024. Sainz took home the dub last year.
The traditional rule with betting is to be cautious about betting and/or fading trends, especially in American football. However, anything can happen in motorsports, especially Formula 1. I’ll fade the “Smooth Operator,” who’s making his Williams Racing debut this week.
2025 Australian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris (+185)
Lando Norris deserves to be the favorite down under. He had a strong 2024, battling Max Verstappen all season despite coming up short of the Driver’s Championship. The friends-to-foes rivalry was fun to watch.
McLaren impressed during preseason testing in Bahrain, with Norris and Oscar Piastri debuting their new MCL39. If it’s as fast as the motorsports world has said, Norris will certainly be someone to watch.
In addition, having a consistent duo with Norris and Piastri helps. Aston Martin is the only other team that returns the same drivers as last season (Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll). This matters to me.
The Brit is an easy, safe bet to make.
Charles Leclerc (+400)
Charles Leclerc is the unofficial prince of Monaco (figuratively, y’all). He notably broke the curse in his home race with a storybook ending to last year’s Monaco Grand Prix and is a big favorite to dethrone Verstappen in 2025.
Notably, Ferrari owns this track. Michael Schumacher and Lex Davison hold the joint record with four wins down under, and the team has 14 wins in total. Fonza Ferrari.
My favorite joke is that Ferrari fans are the Dallas Cowboys fans of Formula 1: delusional by consistently saying it’s their year when it isn’t. However, Scuderia Ferarri has had more relevant success within the past decade.
Leclerc has been consistently on podiums the past few seasons and has yet to reach his prime. He’s only getting better.
Oscar Piastri (+450)
Piastri is Norris’s teammate and has impressed since his rookie season in 2023. He picked up a duo of wins last season and, like Norris, benefits from driving the new MCL39. Because of McLaren’s success and being on home soil, Piastri having tied for the third-best odds makes sense.
Fun fact: An Australian has never won the Grand Prix on their home soil. The young Piastri has a solid chance to do so. However, battling his hungry teammate, a tough Ferrari duo of Leclarc-Lewis Hamilton and Verstappen, is no easy task.
This is not a bad bet to make, but I would lean toward betting him to finish on the podium (P3 or P2) instead.
Max Verstappen (+450)
“Tu du du du, Max Verstappen …” yes, this is an actual song by Carte Blanq & Maxx Power.
Some may be wondering why the four-time champion is not a favorite to win the Australian Grand Prix or even the 2025 Driver’s Championship. After Red Bull Racing won all but one race in 2023 (Sainz won in Singapore), their dominance slowed down in the second half of 2024. His strong first half is what solidified him his fourth title.
Red Bull was a disappointment during preseason testing and has various areas to work on. The rise of McLaren and Ferrari’s dynamic duo will undoubtedly put pressure on the team after several years of dominance. This is not on Verstappen, but Red Bull’s own failures and ongoing internal drama amongst team principal Christian Horner make him easier to fade this weekend and arguably the entire season.
This is not to say that backing the Dutchman is a poor bet. Just like with Hamilton, you can never count out Verstappen, who is essentially the Patrick Mahomes of Formula 1 right now. What also saves him is the weather. There is an 80% chance of rain on race day, and Verstappen is known to drive well despite potentially poor weather conditions. I would monitor the weather and then take it from there with Verstappen or any driver, really.
Australian Grand Prix Dark Horse
George Russell (+1400)
Lewis Hamilton at (+600) is an underrated bet, but not considered a dark horse for me, given Ferrari’s expectations. For this week, it’s George Russell.
Russell is slowly emerging after a tough start to 2024 and rough 2022 and 2023 seasons. Now, all eyes are on him, Mercedes and head honcho Toto Wolff with Hamilton’s departure to Ferrari.
The English driver won twice in 2024 at both the Austrian and Las Vegas Grand Prix. He finished first in the Belgian Grand Prix but became the first driver in 30 years to be disqualified from a race win. His car was found to be underweight. Per regulations, every car is weighed after the race and required to carry a minimum of 798 kilograms without fuel. Russell’s was 1.5 kilograms lighter after his car was tested. Therefore, Hamilton picked up the win instead since he was P2.
Russell also DNF’ed in last year’s Australian Grand Prix but finished second in this year’s preseason testing. He is certainly motivated and hungry to redeem himself and prove that he can bring Mercedes back to their 2010s dominant self. In addition, most of the drivers after Russell are either entering their second season or have questions about their new teams.
Top 5 Finishes Predictions
If It Rains:
- Charles Leclerc
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- Lewis Hamilton
- Oscar Piastri
If It Doesn’t Rain:
- Lando Norris
- Charles Leclerc
- Lewis Hamilton
- Oscar Piastri
- Max Verstappen
Thank you for reading my 2025 Australian Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports*
