Since 1972, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, held annually on the Fourth of July, has been an event unlike any other. Contestants compete by eating as many hot dogs as they can in 10 minutes.
Coming into this year, there was major news made when Nathan’s announced they banned perennial favorite Joey Chestnut from participating this year. Chestnut signed an endorsement deal with Impossible Foods, a rival, plant-based hot dog brand. Chestnut has won Nathan’s title every year from 2007 to 2023, with the exception of 2015, when Matt Stonie won. With 62 hot dogs eaten in 2023, Chestnut planned to defend the title yet again in 2024, but that isn’t to be the case this year with the ban by Nathan’s.
Both Underdog Fantasy’s and PrizePicks’ daily fantasy sites have prop bet lines for this year’s competitors. Let’s first dive into some of my favorite plays on both platforms for this event, starting with Underdog.
Note: every site will have lines that differ, and these lines can change leading up to the event.
Tootsie’s Picks: Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2024 PrizePicks & Underdog Fantasy Predictions
Underdog Fantasy Plays
Paige Spiranac’s Surprise Entry
Paige Spiranac, a former golf pro who now analyzes the game on social media, announced she could fill in for Joey Chestnut after he was banned. In a viral video released on June 12, Spiranac attempted the hot dog challenge but could only eat six dogs, not the 6.5 she claimed she could do. Underdog is giving us an easy line of seven hot dogs for Spiranac. I’m taking the under here. If she participates, it will be fun entertainment for viewers, but I don’t reckon she will be able to finish over five hot dogs.
James Webb: Possible Dark Horse?
James Webb, an Australian competitive eater, came in third with 47 hot dogs at the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. He also achieved third in 2022 with 41 hot dogs. Without Chestnut this year, the race is wide open in the men’s division, and Webb has a strong chance of claiming the title. However, this line is set at 47.5. Despite the lofty goal of 50 Webb set for himself, he hasn’t exceeded 47 in the past, so I’m taking the lower than.
Miki Sudo’s Dominance
Miki Sudo, the current women’s champion, winning with 39.5 hot dogs in 2023, is back to defend her title. She won with 40 hot dogs in 2022, and in 2020, she downed an impressive 48.5. Sudo holds the Guinness World Record for eating six hot dogs in one minute, which she achieved on Oct. 22, 2022. Without Chestnut to redeem his title at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, it’s up to Sudo to reign supreme as a defending champion. I’m taking the over on this line of 39.5 hot dogs.
Let’s now flip over and look at some of my favorites plays on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks Favorites
2023 Runner-Up Geoffrey Esper
Another strong contender in the men’s division is Geoffrey Esper. Last year, Esper finished second behind Chestnut with an impressive 49 hot dogs eaten. His regular line on PrizePicks is set at a tight 49.5 hot dogs. With $10,000 and the Mustard Belt on the line, I anticipate it’s Esper’s turn to step into the winner’s circle and claim the title. That said, PrizePicks has a smash play with a discounted line of 0.5 hot dogs for Esper. He only has to eat one for this to hit. Take the over and easy win with this one.
2021 Champion Michelle Lesco
Michelle Lesco broke up Miki Sudo’s seven-year streak of wins when she won the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Content women’s title in 2021 with 30.75 hot dogs. However, she’s consumed fewer hot dogs than that in the last two years. Lesco took second place in 2022 with 25 hot dogs and claimed third place in 2023 with 24. This PrizePicks line is set at 26.5, and I predict Lesco once again won’t exceed this on July 4. I’m rooting for Lesco to contend, but I am taking the under on this line.
Sudo SZN
Even though the PrizePicks line of 40.5 for Miki Sudo is higher than her Underdog line, I’m still smashing the over here. This is “Sudo SZN.” Not only do I predict her as the women’s title winner, I predict she will clock in a hot dog total in the 40s. Joey Chestnut will always have the hearts of Americans for his accomplishments in this contest. This year, though, let’s celebrate Sudo and her anticipated domination in this competition.
July 4: A national holiday to celebrate America’s independence and a holiday to celebrate people stuffing their faces with hot dogs. Let’s go!
Remember, with any PrizePicks or Underdog Fantasy play, follow your gut on the lines you agree with. Always play responsibly. And always, always make sure you’re having fun with it!
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