The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs kick off this weekend, with a date with The Lady in Black.
Darlington Raceway’s iconic Southern 500 on Labor Day weekend has been nothing but spectacular since its return to its rightful place in the schedule. From throwback paint schemes to upset winners, the South Carolina track is quite the memorable spot.
With 16 drivers starting their chase for a championship, it’s those who can avoid the dreaded Darlington stripe and earn strong finishes that will set themselves up for that title challenge.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyler Reddick Can Rip That Fence | 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Darlington’s 1.366-mile oval has quite the unique shape and is quite the unique track. The fastest way around is as close to the wall as possible, making Homestead the closest comparable course. Some also consider Dover as a comparison, but we’ve elected to only include the former in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Darlington Next-Gen Average Finish
- Darlington Next-Gen Total Speed Ranking
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Darlington I
- 2025 Homestead
- 2024 Darlington I and II
- 2025 & 2024 Homestead Finish
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Ranking
- Xfinity & Truck Series Bonus @ Darlington
Denny Hamlin scoring at the top of the Darlington model makes a ton of sense. He’s won here more than anyone in the field and has the second-best average finish of all time at this track. And while I will stick to the favorites this week, I’m looking in other directions than the No. 11.
2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Picks & Predictions
William Byron (+500)
William Byron should probably be heading into the Southern 500 weekend looking for the Darlington sweep, but things didn’t work out in the spring. The No. 24 led the first 243 laps before losing the top spot on pit strategy, finishing the race as the runner-up. He’s also runner-up in our model this week, putting up stats that are worthy of the top spot, but just not quite as strong as Hamlin’s otherworldly stats here.
The Hendrick Motorsports driver has finished T6 in four of the last five Darlington races, including a 2023 win. Byron’s average finish and Total Speed Ranking are tops in the Next-Gen at The Lady in Black. This team will be hungry to get the checkered flag they feel they deserve and will hope to start William Byron’s playoffs off on a high note.
Ryan Blaney (+650)
Similar to Byron, Ryan Blaney can claim that he should have won this year’s spring race as well. The No. 12 was charging through the field and caught an unlucky yellow flag just before making the pass for the lead. Blaney still earned a P5 in that race, but while it’s his only Darlington T5, it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been fast on this track type. At Homestead, Blaney was also far and away the fastest car before blowing an engine. But even without the deserved finishes, the Team Penske driver has been top two in Total Speed Ranking during the last three races at that pair of tracks, as well as tops in the series over the last two seasons.
No one is running hotter than the No. 12 team right now, with a win and a 4.8 average finish in the last six Cup Series races. Ryan Blaney just needs to back it up with results at Darlington.
Tyler Reddick (+800)
There’s no one better known for their ability to rip the fence than Tyler Reddick. Darlington has long been one of Reddick’s best tracks and sets up the No. 45 well for a strong start to the playoffs.
Reddick is the only driver to earn a T10 finish in each of the three Next-Gen Southern 500 races and has the fourth-best Next-Gen average finish here. That even includes a pair of asterisk-mark-worthy incidents, like last spring’s collision with Chris Buescher battling for the lead late. Those blemishes are part of what holds Reddick back to third place in our model.
The California native ranks in the top three in Total Speed Ranking both at Darlington and on the high-wear intermediate track type. Though it’s been an up-and-down year for Tyler Reddick, he is capable of magic moments on these tracks, like the one that sent the No. 45 to last year’s Championship 4 at Homestead.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA TODAY Sports*
