America’s heartland is the hottest ticket in the NASCAR Cup Series. The playoffs’ Round of 12 continues at Kansas Speedway, home to some of the most exciting racing in the sport over the last few years.
We could see a dominating performance like in the springtime, an upset winner like last fall or anything and everything else in-between.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tyler Reddick Hot in the Heartland | 2025 Hollywood Casino 400 Picks
Building Our Betting Model
Kansas is one of our traditional 1.5-mile intermediate ovals. Las Vegas is its closest comparable, while Michigan also races quite similarly. The other 1.5-mile ovals of Charlotte, Homestead and Texas are also included in this week’s IBT Betting Model powered by ifantasyrace.com.
- Kansas Next-Gen Average Finish
- Kansas Next-Gen Total Speed Rankings
- Average Running Position at:
- 2025 Kansas I
- 2025 Michigan
- 2025 Charlotte
- 2025 Texas
- 2025 Las Vegas I
- 2025 Homestead
- 2024 Comp Track Average Finish
- 2025 Conventional Tracks Total Speed Rankings
- Xfinity & Truck Series @ Kansas Bonus
It’s no shock that Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin rank at the top of the model, as some of the series’ top drivers at Kansas, especially early in the Next-Gen era. Last week’s winner, Ryan Blaney, and last year’s winner, Ross Chastain, each cracked the top 10 as well. We have to start our predictions at the top, however.
2025 Hollywood Casino 400 Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson (+370)
We’ve all seen that Larson has been on a summer slump, at least based on his standards. Still, Kansas is the opportunity he needs to get back on track. The No. 5 led 221 laps in his spring win here, the most led by any driver in a 400-miler at a 1.5-mile track in the history of the Cup Series.
That performance only added to his exceptional recent form in the Sunflower State, which places him at the top of our projections. Larson has led 26.6% of the laps at Kansas in the Next-Gen era and nearly four times more laps than any other driver here since 2021.
The California native’s slump came after the springtime run of 1.5-mile tracks, in which he had the top total speed ranking at Kansas, Texas and Las Vegas. Larson is also tied with Ryan Preece for the most top-10 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks this season with four.
Tyler Reddick (+1100)
While Tyler Reddick and 23XI Racing had quite a run at Kansas a few years ago, recent stats aren’t in their favor. Since winning the 2023 Kansas playoff race, the No. 45 has put up finishes of P20, P25 and P17 here. Reddick’s stats at 1.5-mile tracks most similar to Kansas have been poor, too, adding a P26 and P21 to those numbers.
However, we’ve seen before that the two-time Xfinity champion can perform with his back against the wall. Near the bottom of the playoff leaderboard last month at Darlington, Reddick finished P2 at “The Lady in Black.” His Homestead win to advance to the Championship 4 in 2024 was also iconic.
It’s important to also note that Reddick has overcome a points deficit after the first Round-of-12 race to advance in each of the last two seasons. Granted, they were smaller than the 23 points he’s back now. Still, don’t count him out just yet.
Alex Bowman (+3000)
Kansas is not only a Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) favorite but an Alex Bowman favorite as well. “The Showman,” just cracking the top 10 of our model, has never finished outside the top 10 in the Next-Gen era at Kansas.
The No. 48 is only behind Larson in series-best average finish here, and the Arizona native has more career T10 finishes here (11) than at any other track on the circuit. Bowman also led 107 laps in the fall 2022 playoff race at Kansas and has earned stage points each of the last five stages.
Thanks for reading my 2025 Hollywood Casino 400 picks & predictions. Be sure to catch us live every Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on The Backroad!
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*Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports*
