I applaud if you somehow survived the injury apocalypse of NFL Week 2. What a mess it was last weekend. The injury bug was making its rounds throughout nearly every game. Nevertheless, these things happen in football because it’s a vicious sport. The only good news is that with all the injuries, it almost guarantees that many others setting NFL DFS lineups had players leave the game as well.
We didn’t get blow-up games for all my Week 2 picks, but we didn’t get any players that hurt our lineups. That’s a win. Depending on how you built your roster around them, you should’ve come out ahead in winning some cash. So, I’ll say I went five-for-five in our picks last week.
With that, let’s look at Week 3. Right now, the game totals are not projecting high-scoring affairs. Only five of the 12 games on the main slate are predicted to have a point total of 42 or more. Yuck.
(NFL DFS prices are courtesy of DraftKings)
Week 3 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
Quarterback
Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) | $5,800
Raise your hand if you had Derek Carr as the fantasy football QB2 overall through the first two weeks of the 2024 season. Now, the five of you from Louisiana, put your hands down. So far this season, the Saints’ offense looks legit. Carr has been tearing it up the last two weeks, averaging around 22 fantasy points per game. He’s my pick this week for NFL DFS lineups, and I can’t believe how cheap he is. He is outside the top 10 in pricing at $5,800. That price is giving you one hell of a value for the QB2 on the season.
This week, the Saints take on the Eagles in the game with the second-highest total on the main slate. The point total sits at 49.5, and the Saints are currently favored by 2.5. This game has the making of a shoot-out, and I want those pieces on my team. Carr faces a Philadelphia secondary that gave up 241 yards and two touchdowns to Kirk Cousins on “Monday Night Football.” Now they face a short week and a Saints’ wide receiver corps who loves to go deep.
This season, the Eagles are currently the fifth-easiest matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. They’re allowing quarterbacks to score 3.4 points over projections through two weeks. So, if my math is correct, Carr could end up with 25+ points this week.
Let’s dog the Eagles’ secondary some more. They’ve allowed the seventh-most yards through the air so far with 501. The “Bird Gang” has also allowed the third-most pass plays of 20 yards or more with seven. Better yet, they’ve allowed the second-most pass plays of 40 yards or more with two. Those numbers will probably rise more on Sunday. So why not throw a quarterback who is on fire and cheap into your NFL DFS lineup? Sign me up.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (Baltimore Ravens) | $6,500
Derrick Henry is now in Baltimore, but it’s been somewhat mediocre for “The King.” He is averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game, but after Sunday I expect that number to be much higher. The Ravens take on the Cowboys who just got gashed by Alvin Kamara. The Tennessee product ran for 115 yards and three touchdowns. He also tallied 60+ receiving yards and a touchdown. I know Henry isn’t well known for his pass-catching ability, but I see those three scores on the ground from Kamara and start foaming from the mouth.
It wasn’t just one tough game for the Cowboys’ defense. After two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed the most touchdowns on the ground with five. Don’t you think John Harbaugh will notice that and scheme to get Henry the ball more? Right now he’s getting about 16 carries a game, but I expect that number to hit 20 this Sunday.
Henry is also outside the top 10 as far as DraftKings pricing goes in a game, with a solid total of 48.5. The price is fair for his production so far. What I like about it most is that it’s high enough that I feel I am getting value for what he could do, but I’m also not breaking the bank. There is a genuine opportunity for Henry to break the slate this weekend, as the Cowboys are allowing running backs to score six points over their projection through two games. If that trend continues, you could see a 20+-point day for Henry.
Wide Receiver
Rashid Shaheed (New Orleans Saints) | $5,300
You know damn well I couldn’t leave this week’s NFL DFS lineup without the stack that has been attacking the first two weeks of the season. Rashid Shaheed has been on fire through two weeks, scoring an average of 18.6 points per game. As noted, he faces a Philadelphia secondary that has been a complete liability. Their defensive backs are allowing fantasy wide receivers to score a whopping 12 points over their projection. When I say they’re a liability, I truly mean that.
I know, Shaheed only has nine targets on the season, but it’s not that big of a deal when you’re turning them into huge gains and touchdowns. Those nine targets have turned into seven catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Looking at those numbers, Shaheed is averaging 24.1 Yards Per Reception (YPR). Delightful. Four of those seven catches have gone for 20+ yards. In addition, two of them have gone for 40+ yards. That is the perfect recipe for an Eagles secondary that loves to give up big plays.
At an incredibly affordable $5,300, this also allows you to add more expensive wide receivers or another running back that is a little more pricy.
I also don’t think the field is buying into Shaheed like I am, so it’ll give you a break from the field. Throw Shaheed in your lineup, and watch the fireworks.
RELATED: Week 3 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag: Rashid Shaheed Season
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (Miami Dolphins) | $3,400
This NFL DFS pick isn’t quite the layup that Brock Bowers was last week, but I have a slight inkling here. Hear me out. Last week Jonnu Smith tallied seven targets for six receptions and 53 yards. A lot of this came after Tua Tagovailoa left the game with a nasty concussion.
I suspect that the Dolphins’ game plan will drastically change with Skylar Thompson under center. He won’t toss the ball 50 yards downfield to Tyreek Hill. They will be drawing up short dinks and dumps. Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane are the only two players that I think will be the only beneficiaries of Tagovailoa’s unfortunate injury.
So why roster him right away? Why not wait a week to see if this game plan happens? I probably would’ve had I not seen who the Dolphins take on this week. This week they face the Seahawks. So far, the Seahawks are the fifth-easiest matchup for tight ends. They’re allowing those tight ends to score three points over projection. While this may not seem like much, Hunter Henry just went off on them last week for eight receptions and 109 yards. Those are excellent numbers for your fantasy tight end.
You’re also not paying a dime for Smith. He’s a measly $3,400 on DraftKings. I don’t see an issue starting a cheap tight end that I can build a team around. He’s also no slouch. This season, he has the ninth-most targets for tight ends (nine), the ninth-most catches (seven) and the 12th-most receiving yards (60). We all know how inconsistent the tight end position has been in fantasy football. Why not take a chance on a player who might have an uptick in production due to a quarterback change?
Defense/Special Teams
San Francisco 49ers D/ST | $3,500
I can’t help but feel bad for Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford. He has lost nearly all of his starting offensive line, and both of his stud wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are injured and will miss extended time. It’s a tough situation, but it’s great for NFL DFS D/STs!
You need to take advantage of bad situations for opposing offenses, so you should be putting the San Francisco 49ers D/ST in your DFS lineup this week. They are set up for success with a broken Los Angeles offense and a near-weaponless Stafford.
Look for Nick Bosa to get into the backfield early and often, and Fred Warner to continue to dominate at linebacker. All that could very possibly create turnover opportunities.
Check out all of our Week 3 fantasy football content:
- Fantasy Football Week 3 News & Notes (2024)
- NFL Week 3 PrizePicks Player Predictions (2024)
- Week 3 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Week 3 Fantasy Football Trade Targets (2024)
- Week 3 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag
- Week 3 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 3 In the Scope Targets (2024)
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*Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports*