Another week down in the NFL and another week of some slightly disappointing fantasy football play. These first three weeks, getting points from your players has seemed to be a chore. Nonetheless, we need to find those missing points. This week seems to be more of the same, with Vegas point totals on the low end. Although this is true, I feel as though many of these lower-point total games will come out ahead. I anticipate that several of these games will surprise us with higher outputs. So, let’s dive into our best Week 4 NFL DFS picks!
(NFL DFS prices are courtesy of DraftKings)
Week 4 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) | $6,500
The rookie Jayden Daniels has arrived, folks! After an impressive first three weeks of his career, it’s time to throw Daniels into your NFL DFS lineup. In the last three weeks, Daniels has averaged 23.2 DraftKings points per game, a loveable amount. What works well for Daniels is what he brings to you on the ground. I love a rushing quarterback because they have that other variable to the point total: rushing yards and touchdowns.
Through the first three weeks of the season, Daniels has given you an average of 57 yards per game on the ground. That’s a massive advantage to your point baseline. In addition, he’s had three rushing touchdowns. So, if you add the rushing touchdowns and yardage per game, technically, you’re already sitting at 11 extra points.
What I also love about Daniels this week is the point total for the game against the Arizona Cardinals is 50.5. That’s the highest of the week, and the Cardinals are also favored. Why is that important? If the Cardinals are favored, odds are the Commanders will be playing from behind. Which, in Daniels’ case, most likely means he’s throwing deep and/or scrambling for rushing yards often.
Running Back
Jerome Ford (Cleveland Browns) | $5,700
You’ve been somewhat disappointed if you’ve bought into the Jerome Ford rental this season. But to be honest, a lot of the Browns have been. However, I like the matchup this week against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that got destroyed last week by Chuba Hubbard both on the ground and through the air. Hubbard tallied 114 yards rushing, along with five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown.
I admit Ford has been boring and a letdown. So far, he’s only averaged 12.1 Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points per game. It isn’t god-awful, but you expected him to be far more productive. I think that changes this week. The Browns need a win, and I think that runs through the success of Ford. The Raiders allow the second-most NFL DFS points per game to fantasy running backs (27.8). This presents a big opportunity for Ford to blow up if they do what I think they will.
Another positive for Ford is that he got involved in the passing game last week, catching three balls. If they can continue to incorporate Ford in the passing game and run him like Carolina did Hubbard, it’ll be huge.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins (Houston Texans) | $7,200
This is where I’m paying up in Week 4 for NFL DFS lineups. The Texans should have a solid bounce-back game against Jacksonville. The Jaguars just got completely euthanized by the Bills, largely in part due to the passing game. There’s a massive opportunity for C.J. Stroud and the passing game to light up the Jaguars this week. There will probably be great receiving games for multiple Texans pass-catchers, but Collins is the alpha there.
Collins is averaging 21.3 points per game despite putting up 12.6 last week in Minnesota. I’d be so bold to throw out an anytime touchdown bet for Collins in this game. Jacksonville is allowing a staggering amount of points per game to wide receivers. Right now, that average sits at 31 points per game. That should rise yet again after this week.
One more factor here is the injury to Tank Dell. There is no structural damage on his wrist, but it is to be noted that he could miss this game. Watching practice reports on this would be beneficial, but you should be starting Collins either way. If Dell misses the game against the Jaguars, you have a better opportunity for a huge game from the Michigan standout.
Tight End
Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears) | $4,400
Man, has the tight end field been awful so far this season? No matter who you throw into the lineup, it’s nearly a gamble. So I’m going to ask you to chase the targets this week. This time around, it lands on the Bears’ Cole Kmet. Last week, Kmet saw 11 total targets in the game, a number that has risen each game. He also had his best game last week against the Colts, scoring 25.7 NFL DFS points.
This week, Kmet takes on the Los Angeles Rams, who, through three weeks, have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (12.1). So we are not only chasing targets this week but also targeting a defense that has been exposed by tight ends so far. Sounds like a great recipe, honestly.
So what is happening here is that you’re banking on the success of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. That’s true because you need him to keep exposing the Rams’ defense’s weak spot, which right now is the passing game. Kmet is also a lot cheaper than the bigger-name tight ends, so even if he doesn’t explode, you’re not spending up for a bad game.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST | $3,300
There’s an argument right now that the Steelers have one of, if not the best defenses in the NFL. They love to wear you down, slow the game and hit hard constantly. Coming into Week 4, the Steelers have allowed the second-least amount of rushing yards in the league. They also have yet to give up a rushing touchdown. On the passing side, they’ve allowed the sixth-least yards through the air. They’re a tough-as-nails defense.
This week, they take on Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts. This matchup is a lot of fun for T.J. Watt‘s crew, as Richardson is still incredibly inaccurate and leads the league in interceptions thrown with six. There’s a solid chance that number increases even more, and the Steelers’ defense will be in most of my NFL DFS lineups.
Check out all of our Week 4 fantasy football content:
- Week 4 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- Week 4 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 4 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag
- Week 4 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice
- Fantasy Football Week 4 News & Notes (2024)
- NFL Week 4 PrizePicks Player Predictions (2024)
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 4 News & Notes (2024)
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*Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA TODAY Sports*