Holding the prestigious title of the oldest golf tournament in the world, The Open Championship is the final Major of the season, and the anticipation to see who is named the Champion Golfer of the Year is at an all-time high!
All eyes will be on Rory McIlroy, the hometown hero with something to prove. He already won The Open once back in 2014, but after finishing in second place each of the last two years and missing the cut the last time it was held at the Royal Portrush Golf Club, McIlroy should be back with a vengeance, but the competition is fierce.
It will take the whole bag to win The 2025 Open Championship, but who will be hoisting the Claret Jug at the end of the weekend?
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Will Hometown Hero Rory McIlroy Win? | The Open Championship 2025 Bets
Course Layout
Heading to County Antrim in Northern Ireland, Royal Portrush Golf Club last hosted the Open Championship in 2019, during which Irishman Shane Lowry claimed victory. The course is 7,381 yards with a par of 71 played across red fescue greens and fairways. It’s built in a classic links style, with tricky sight lines and nary a flat lie on the property.
Course Strategy
Featuring three par-5s and four par-3s, the par-5s are especially difficult on approach with greenside pot bunkers. They’re scoreable, but require precision, as they’re smaller than the PGA Tour average. The par-3s are also fairly manageable, except for the 16th hole, which has a strangely-shaped green surrounded by tight corners and clocks in at over 230 yards, earning the nickname of “Calamity Corner.”
The other big variable at Royal Portrush is the weather. The best day appears to be Friday, with mostly dry conditions and winds in check. However, the weekend will likely be wet, cool and windy. The severity of those conditions is anyone’s guess, as the weather can change on a dime near the coasts of Northern Ireland.
These particular conditions will favor golfers with experience on links courses, and a precise approach is critical. Good ball striking ability and distance can be a huge advantage, as is a creative short game, but make no mistake, The Open Championship will test golfers’ ability to play through the whole bag.
Building Our Betting Model
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Off The Tee
- Approaches from 150-200 Yards
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- Around the Green
Players to Target for The Open Championship 2025:
Rory McIlroy (+750)
Hailing from the next county over, Rory McIlroy should be the favorite to win this week, despite the odds favoring Scottie Scheffler, and it’s not close. Hot off a T2 finish at last week’s Scottish Open, McIlroy is having one of his best seasons in a decade, with a well-rounded and finely-tuned game. It should serve him well at a demanding course like Royal Portrush, and he has a little something extra to prove after missing the cut the last time The Open was here in 2019. He’s claimed this Major before, so there’s not much else to say beyond bet on Rory McIlroy.
Shane Lowry (+3500)
Shane Lowry won by an impressive six shots here in 2019, gaining so many shots on approach that no one could catch him. He’s also had enough top-ten finishes this season to instill confidence in his recent form. While Lowry continues to struggle a bit on putting, as he always has, he can easily make up for it in other categories and repeat his win.
Viktor Hovland (+3000)
Viktor Hovland is starting to get on a heater, finishing third at the US Open and T11 at last week’s Scottish Open, and the latter bodes particularly well with another links course on tap. The Norseman also excels across various categories and distances in his approach game, which will be critical this week. Don’t sleep on Hovland.
Other Outrights To Consider:
- Robert MacIntyre (+4000): With a runner-up performance just a couple of weeks ago at the US Open, Robert MacIntyre is having a great season. His ball-striking has been on fire, and he played well on the links last week as expected. MacIntyre was in the top ten when The Open was last held here, and he has good upside again this year.
- Patrick Reed (+8000): As a fellow top-ten finisher during The Open’s last visit to Royal Portrush, Patrick Reed is also riding high from a win last week at the LIV event in Andalucía and could be poised to make some noise here again. Reed is not great off the tee, but he’s otherwise good all around, with solid short game and scrambling stats, especially around the green, and that versatility will help here.
Longshots To Consider:
- Ben Griffin (+9000): Ben Griffin may be a little less experienced than others in the field, but he’s been in great form this season and these odds have him wildly underpriced. Griffin is excellent on par-3s, good at bogey avoidance and his already-solid skills off the tee and on approach have been steadily improving.
- Harry Hall (+11000): Harry Hall stayed true to his status as a birdie-making machine last week and he’ll be able to do it again at The Open. He consistently scores on par-3s and par-5s, and as noted last week, any inclement weather only helps clear the way for Hall, which could easily be the case in this harsh environment.
- Tom Kim (+15000): Although he hasn’t been playing his best golf as of late, Tom Kim is still a force to be reckoned with on the links, ranking ninth in strokes gained on links courses. Kim has lacked weekly consistency, but his experience on the links makes this intriguing, albeit risky.
- Haotong Li (+35000): A true longshot, Haotong Li is volatile, with massive peaks and valleys from week to week. But if he can line it up and stick it close, and he’s shown he can, then these odds are too juicy to pass up.
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The Open Championship 2025.
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*Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire – USA Today Sports*
