After some very scary conditions with many surprises, the Australian Grand Prix is in the books. Kimi Antonelli had a stunning fifth-place finish while six cars did not finish (DNF), including some that didn’t start. Even Lance Stroll finished in the Top 6; shout out to The Backroad’s Elliot Hicks for hitting this +1200 prop bet!
Formula 1 continues and shifts to Asia with the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai. Just like last week, I’ll share my predictions and address the picks, while sharing my T5 finishes and a dark horse winner.
Let’s get into it.
(Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook)
Will Oscar Piastri Bounce Back? | 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Picks
As expected, Lando Norris held the reigns to earn his 25 points for McLaren to start the season, holding off Max Verstappen and George Russell. Alex Albon rounded out the Top 5 for a nice performance from Williams. And if you’re a Ferrari fan, well, you saw the memes. I did not see this coming.
Unlike the horrendous conditions down under, there is no rain in the forecast for Shanghai, which will be easier for the drivers. However, there are a couple of notes to highlight. Because of longer corners, especially in Turns 1, 7, 8, 12 and 13, there is more lateral load. This puts more stress on the tires. Second, the mini-DRS that were notably used in the Australian Grand Prix will no longer be allowed, so keep an eye on that.
2025 Chinese Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris (+100)
Like any other athlete coming off a big win, Lando Norris is understandably a favorite to win his second consecutive race of 2025. However, one thing to note is that the Chinese Grand Prix is the first race to have a sprint weekend. This means drivers get one practice to get everything right. Does this impact Lando and others directly? Yes and no, but also remember that China and Australia are different circuits, so relying on solely results from last weekend may not be the best approach.
That said, taking the British driver to win again at +100 makes the most sense. The mini-DRS did not seem to impact McLaren’s strategy or Norris’ win too much, but their preservation of tires is at its peak. Lando will certainly keep flying on this track.
He is hungry and hot after beating Max Verstappen off the gate. I predict Lando Norris winning back-to-back, but I do think you could get better values elsewhere and parlays are often the best ways to win in F1. If you want to play it safe, bet on Lando. Otherwise, you could go for his Aussie teammate, Oscan Piastri.
Oscar Piastri (+300)
Oscar Piastri was off to a strong start in the brutal rain conditions during his home race but made a costly error at Turn 12. This caused him to finish in ninth place and barely pick up a couple of points. Piastri is not a rookie, but he is still a young driver who was simply overly aggressive in the rain. Fans saw the frustration and disappointment on his face and tone throughout the race and after.
He heaps the benefits of Lando by being in a McLaren. The Australian driver picked up big wins last season in Hungary and Azerbaijan to help McLaren pick up their first Constructor’s Championship since 1998 (I was barely alive).
Lando is clearly the hotter driver, so why Piastri? Put simply, I like his value at +300. There’s enough juice to bet on it and win a little more cash, but not enough to take a big loss as compared to more dark horse picks like Ferrari’s duo or Kimi Antonelli.
Max Verstappen (+350)
Tu du du du, Max Verstappen…
Once again, just like Patrick Mahomes in the NFL, you cannot count out the four-time champion. He certainly made Lando sweat in Australia and his exceptional driving in dangerous rain made him stand out as a podium favorite again.
He is the defending Chinese Grand Prix winner and I expect him to dominate again. However, McLaren’s strategy so far has shown they are the team that could dethrone Red Bull for a while. I may be a Red Bull fan, but I’m not feeling them so far and Liam Lawson’s DNF result last week did not help.
It’s not a bad bet to take Max at +350, but I just have a bit more confidence in McLaren running it back again. That said, I do expect Max to return to the podium again.
Chinese Grand Prix Dark Horse
Lewis Hamilton (+2000)
Picking a Ferrari driver as a legitimate dark horse winner this early is something I did not have on my 2025 bingo card. Let’s add that to the words of wisdom.
There’s a reason why both Charles Leclerc and teammate Lewis Hamilton are true dark horses at +2000. With Ferrari’s “water is wet” radio conversation and their overall interesting strategy, it’s not overly promising for the team. Hamilton may have six career pole positions and six wins at the Chinese Grand Prix, but I just have too many questions right now. Leclerc is in a similar boat, and Ferrari’s poor performance down under could have been better despite poor conditions. However, I am not giving up on them yet.
Hamilton’s experience plays a big factor and he actually cursed during the last race. He’s hungry. Leclerc will also bounce back, but I’m also not sure how patient I would be when you already have a ridiculous radio conversation in the FIRST RACE. Either could come out as a dark horse but between the two, my money is on Hamilton.
Top 5 Finish Predictions
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- Oscar Piastri
- George Russell
- Charles Leclerc
Thank you for reading my 2025 Chinese Grand Prix picks and predictions! Follow me on Twitter/X @nrojo5 for more fantasy football & sports takes, including Formula 1. Simply, simply lovely.
*Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports*
