Home Columns Open-Ended DFS: Smoke

Open-Ended DFS: Smoke

by IBT Media Staff

A burning building, a public relations emergency and the shortfall of a fantasy football team all have one thing in common – they produce a cloud of smoke.

But the real question is:  What rises out of the ashes once it clears? Greatness? Glory? Something better than what was there before? That’s up for you to decide.

Week 16 Water Tower DFS Picks

RB: David Montgomery (Chicago at Jacksonville) — $7,000

I was down on David Montgomery the first part of the season, and justifiably so. Through Week 9 he had been inconsistent at best, only scoring 15+ Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy points twice. That all changed in Week 12 when Montgomery went wild for 25.3 PPR points, and he hasn’t dipped since, scoring over 24 PPR points in his last four contests.

With a Week 16 matchup against lowly Jacksonville looming, Montgomery should again be a solid lineup anchor. They are currently allowing an average of 117.1 rushing yards and nearly a touchdown per game to the running back position. Get him in your lineup with confidence, and build around him for the cash. – Nate Polvogt

RB: Nick Chubb (Cleveland at New York Jets) — $7,800

Good running backs can be hard to find in both season-long and Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), which is what warrants my comfortability with paying up for Nick Chubb here in Week 16.

Since coming back from injury in Week 10, Chubb has averaged 18.9 PPR points and has finished as an RB1 four times in six games. With Cleveland looking to clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2002, I think they play it safe, letting Chubb work against the New York Jets who allow a generous 4.13 yards per carry to running backs – justifying his high price tag. – Seth Woolcock

QB: Josh Allen (Buffalo at New England) — $7,300

Josh Allen has officially entered the realm of elite quarterbacks in today’s NFL. The Buffalo Bills are on top of the AFC East, set to get the conference’s No. 2 seed. This Monday night matchup will be an official passing of the torch from New England to the Bills Mafia. The Patriots have nothing to play for at this point and their top cornerback Stephon Gilmore is out for the season. Trust that it’s going to be a big night for Allen come Monday. – Elliot Hicks

WR: Brandon Aiyuk (San Francisco at Arizona) — $6,700 

Brandon Aiyuk was in our DFS column last week, as well, and he delivered. He returns this week for $500 more but is worth every penny. The San Francisco 49ers are playing a divisional matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. 

With Raheem Mostert’s status in question, this game should be played through the air and Aiyuk will continue to feast. He’s scored more than 20 points each of his last three matchups, has shown that he is a key part of this offense and will help you win your DFS matchups this week. – Thomas Cuda

WR: Keenan Allen (Denver at Los Angeles Chargers) — $7,500

“Don’t sit me” was the advice from Allen to fantasy players last week. We should have sat him. That being said I think a lot of people may stay away after being burnt by Allen last week. 

I’m going right back to him. He only needs a few receptions to get to 1000 yards on the season and last time these teams met he went nine for 12 with a touchdown, scoring 21.7 PPR points. In the last five weeks, he has had fewer than 10 targets only once and that was last week while injured. I like the stack with Justin Herbert this week, as well. – Conor Coughlin

Week 16 Typewriter DFS Picks

TE: Austin Hooper (Cleveland at New York Jets) — $3,500

Last week, Austin Hooper had his best performance as a Cleveland Brown, posting five receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown.

This week, he squares off with the now 1-13 Jets, who have allowed touchdowns to tight ends in five straight games. Darren Waller went 13 for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his Week 13 matchup against the Jets. While I don’t expect that type of performance, Hooper is well worth the $3,500 on DraftKings in Week 16. – Woolcock

RB: Le’Veon Bell (Atlanta at Kansas City) — $5,800

I think Le’Veon Bell is one of the more intriguing players to watch this week. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire injured, Bell will have his first chance to be the Chiefs’ lead back. It’s also his first chance to have the lion’s share of carries for a team that isn’t dysfunctional since leaving Pittsburgh. All of that, coupled with Bell being relatively fresh this late in the year, makes him a solid pickup against Atlanta. – Hicks

WR: Antonio Brown (Tampa Bay at Detroit) — $5,300 

Antonio Brown hasn’t been a household name since leaving Pittsburgh. After facing suspensions and being cut by New England and Las Vegas, Brown now finds himself in Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers catching passes from Tom Brady

The Buccaneers have been giving Brown short-area work and he’s starting to build trust with Brady. That trust turned into five catches for 93 yards and a touchdown providing 20.3 PPR to DFS teams that played him. This week brings a matchup with Detroit and an opportunity for the Buccaneers to lock up a playoff appearance and get firing on all cylinders. That means that Brown should continue to be worked into a solid floor with great upside. – Cuda

WR: A.J. Green (Cincinnati at Houston) — $3,400

Yes, you read that right. A.J. Green. The same guy who has been essentially irrelevant all season. That was then and this is now. Cincinnati is banged up at receiver. John Ross hasn’t seen the field since Week 6 against Indianapolis and Tyler Boyd is looking doubtful for their matchup against Houston in Week 16. 

Green seems to be healthier than he’s been all season, and the timing couldn’t be better. Cincinnati can, and will, use Green to stretch the field this week against a lackluster Houston pass defense that is giving up an average of 40.8 PPR points to wide receivers this season. While Green hasn’t been flashy, for $3,400, this is a perfect matchup for him to blow the lid off and get you in the “Green.” – Polvogt

Thanks for reading. And for more feel-good life and fantasy football advice, follow the site on Twitter @IBT_Media.

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