“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite NFL player prop bets for the 2024-25 Conference Championships.
Last week was a disappointing result. Jameson Williams did not make a play on what would have been an easy touchdown in the endzone, which would have put us right on track to cash three bets and a nice parlay. Instead, Williams fell short, as did Joe Mixon and Kareem Hunt. Terry McLaurin continued his torrid pace, hitting his receiving yards prop, and Dallas Goedert came through. Unfortunately, we finished Sunday 2-4, dropping our record since Week 18 to 12-9.
This weekend promises to be an exciting pair of showdowns, and Vegas sharps are moving their wallets to the front pocket. If you take the time to look, there are still some good values, though!
As always, I’ll post some extra picks (including spreads and totals) on my Twitter/X account @BuyAndSellYou before the games. Oddsmakers are playing their cards very close to the chest this week, so let’s see where we can catch them napping.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFL Conference Championships Player Prop Bets of the Week (2024)
Austin Ekeler (RB, Washington Commanders) | Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Commanders and Jayden Daniels will not explode for 300 yards through the air and 45 points like they did against the Lions last week. In Washington, they put up 36 points on the Eagles once this season, but playing at Lincoln Financial Field in front of 68,000 rowdy Philadelphia fans will be much different. The Eagles have compiled a 10-1 record at home, and although the secondary was banged up at the close of the season, they are getting healthy now and one of the toughest teams to pass on.
This is exactly the game script where Austin Ekeler thrives. Dump-offs, screens and shallow crosses will be the key for the Commanders to keep the ball moving. Vegas is pegging the former Los Angeles Charger to net three catches in the game. For the season, Ekeler averages over 10 Yards Per Catch (YPC). He has gone over this 25.5-yard prop eight times (including playoffs) this year and should be able to go over by halftime.
Jayden Daniels (QB, Washington Commanders) | Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
For all the miraculous work rookie Jayden Daniels has done this season, he’s not infallible, and the playoffs require more and more from a player each game. With the Commanders unable to bottle up anyone from Saquon Barkley to Jalen Hurts, expect them to be playing from behind off the jump.
As noted, the Philadelphia defense can tighten the screws on anyone and are not afraid to pressure opposing quarterbacks (41 sacks). They also already forced two of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season. This prop feels like a gimme.
Dyami Brown (WR, Washington Commanders) | Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-120)
Dyami Brown really came along this season and was particularly adept at reeling in the long ball. In the playoffs so far, he’s already hauled in a 42-yarder against Detroit and a 30-yarder against the Buccaneers. But that’s not all: He also has longs of 51 yards, 20, 24, 23 and 41 yards this season. With Washington likely trailing in this game, Daniels will eventually be forced into throwing home run balls to Brown and McLaurin. Brown only needs to catch one to pay off.
Xavier Worthy (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) | Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
The Kansas City Chiefs wisely find a way to get the ball into playmaker Xavier Worthy‘s hands by any means possible. That includes eight carries totaling 50 yards in Weeks 15, 16 and 17. The Chiefs will be throwing the ball a lot more than we’ve seen from them this season because of their heated rivalry with Buffalo. The sportsbooks seem to know it, as some of the receiving totals are outlandish. Regardless, you can always count on head coach Andy Reid to use the whole playbook when necessary.
I expect Worthy will have a rush in each half of this game. His season-average rush checks in over the prop at 5.2 Yards Per Carry (YPC). I feel more comfortable about this prop than guessing at reception yards, even though I expect Mahomes to go over 300 yards passing for the game.
Curtis Samuel (WR. Buffalo Bills) | Over 1.5 Receptions (-140)
The Buffalo Bills will want to throw the ball thanks to the Chiefs’ stout rushing defense this season. Once again, the yardage totals are tough to predict. I suspect a surprise game out of Dalton Kincaid, given Kansas City’s weakness in defending the position. Still, even at four catches and 40 yards, he’s tough to trust.
Curtis Samuel began the season as a bit of a forgotten man, failing to even find his way onto the field in several games in October and at the start of November. Lately, however, he’s shown up with 24 catches in his last seven contests. Samuel is the veteran of this receiving squad, and Josh Allen knows he will be where he needs to be when push comes to shove. You can expect one wide receiver screen early before another short route puts him over the 1.5 receptions he needs to cash this prop.
Noah Gray (TE, Kansas City Chiefs) | Over 1.5 Receptions (-145)
Second verse, same as the first. No. 2 tight end Noah Gray has been essential to the Chiefs this season in clutch situations. You may think of him strictly as a backup to Travis Kelce, but Gray probably has the acumen to start on several other teams. He sees the field in some dual-tight end sets and when Kelce needs a breather. Gray is a first-read option in some situations when he is on the field solo in second-and-manageable downs.
Gray has just four games this season where he was limited to a single catch. He averages 2.5 catches per game, which doesn’t sound like much. However that number is not skewed by big performances, only consistency.
If you’re iffy about the (-140) payouts on the Gray and Samuel props, I encourage you to use them as a leg in a parlay!
Bonus Bets: Travis Kelce (+125) & Dallas Goedert (+290) | Anytime Touchdown
It’s a tight end kind of day, and I like these payouts just fine for scoring. The Oddsmakers have made sure the usual suspects (Allen, Daniels, Barkley and Hurts) are a reach for a minimal payout. Dallas Goedert has come on strong since his early season injury, and all signs are he’s good to go on Sunday. It’s playoff Kelce time, so wagering on him to find paydirt is almost an auto-bet.
Best of luck with all your bets this weekend. I’ll post more bets (including game lines) on my Twitter/X account on Saturday night. Brick by brick, we build!
Thanks for checking out my favorite NFL Conference Championships player prop bets! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content.
*Photo Credit: Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports*