“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite game and NFL player prop bets for the 2024-25 Super Bowl LIX.
Last week we went .500 while all four Conference Championship teams stuck to their big playmakers. Austin Ekeler and Curtis Samuel each had easy props to hit with a disappointing result. I expect a similar affair for “The Big Game” this weekend, so you’ll see the heavy hitters of the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs as the focal point. Vegas wants to drive as many wagers as possible, so some friendly odds are ripe for the picking. We’re still ahead 16-12 since Week 18. Now, let’s go out with a bang!
Super Bowl LIX promises to be a blast between two squads who just faced off for the title almost exactly two years ago to the day in Super Bowl LVII. The Chiefs won that matchup 38-35. The two teams come in sporting a top-10 unit on defense in total yards allowed, while the Chiefs are eighth in the league in yards against the run. Conversely, Philadelphia ranks first overall in yards surrendered through the air.
As always, I’ll post some extra picks (including non-gameplay props) on my Twitter/X account @BuyAndSellYou before the games. It’s your last chance to bet on the NFL until the fall, so I’m playing multiple units on every bet.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NFL Super Bowl LIX Game & Player Prop Bets of the Week
Game Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 (-115)
As noted, each team has a strong defense, particularly in the trenches. With that said, Saquon Barkley is him, and every time we expect him to falter against a capable line, he seems to break off a 60-yard run early to set the tone. He’s been out of this world this season, and I think, barring a flawless defensive performance, he’s going to make Kansas City miserable.
More noteworthy are the passing defenses of the teams. The Chiefs allow just shy of 220 yards per game through the air, and the Eagles have a pair of wideouts in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, who will be able to exploit some mismatches. On the reverse side, Philadelphia has the stingiest pass defense in the league, allowing just 174-plus yards per game. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have come in as advertised and are instrumental in shutting down an aerial attack. The Chiefs will have to play “dink-and-dunk” football, utilizing quick hits to the running backs, tight ends and wideout crosses. They are arguably the best in the league at that gameplan, though, so this will certainly not be a blowout.
Game Total | Over 48.5 Points Scored (-110)
This promises to be a back-and-forth game, and I’m expecting another entry into a run of close games. The last three Super Bowls have been decided by nine total points (three each). This one could go down to the wire, as well. As capable as each of these teams may be with the ball in their hands, the oddsmakers probably hit this one right on the head. I am taking the over with confidence because I don’t see a situation where these teams don’t account for at least three touchdowns each. Toss in a pair of field goals and we’re staring down a tie game with one more kick to win. My prediction for the final is Eagles 27, Chiefs 24. Don’t rule out a Jake Elliott missed extra point to keep things interesting.
Xavier Worthy (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) | 2+ Rushing Attempts (+102)
We played a similar prop line for over 4.5 yards last week when the Chiefs took on the Buffalo Bills, and I reasoned that Xavier Worthy would have a rush in each half. He did, and the resulting total of 16 yards smashed the prop. I’m banking on two attempts again this Sunday, considering the Eagles’ stout defensive line in the middle.
If you’re wondering, the yardage prop is 6.5 rushing yards (-104), and you could easily take both or lump them together by building a single-game parlay (+134). If you dont do it this way, it wont let you combine two O/Us. Worthy averaged over 5.5 rushing yards per attempt this season, and between Weeks 15, 16, 17 and last week, he totaled 10 carries for 66 yards. Run it back again.
Jalen Hurts (QB, Philadelphia Eagles) | Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has eclipsed 200 yards passing in just nine games this season. That’s largely due to the effectiveness of his stud running back, but Hurts has looked like a man on a mission in these playoffs. He had two games with a QB rating surpassing 110.0 and over 70% completions in his last two. In the 55-23 blowout against Washington, he tossed for 246 yards and a touchdown as the Eagles kept their foot on the gas.
Barkley will surely find running room, but Philadelphia will have to throw the ball in their biggest game of the year. Hurts has the weaponry to take advantage of Kansas City’s 18th-ranked passing defense, and I expect he’ll use it.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) | Exactly 2 Passing Touchdowns (+225)
You can find this prop under “Passing Props” and then “Exact Passing Props.” I expect the Chiefs to find at least one creative way to get to paydirt, be it a wide receiver option, running back carry or Patrick Mahomes crossing inside the pylon. My guess is on the latter!
Banking on three-plus touchdowns passing is not a solid enough bet, although the (+212) payoff might be tempting. Likewise, simply doing two-plus scores gives you an ugly -180. Two touchdowns are the realistic expectation, so the way to go around Vegas on this is to play the exact number.
Noah Gray (TE, Kansas City Chiefs) | Over 1.5 Receptions (+109)
This is another plausible parlay if you’re into that sort of thing. Tight End Noah Gray is also ticketed for a line of just 11.5 yards (-115), so if you bet that he’ll catch at least two passes, getting over the yards is also a pretty safe bet. The two can be played separately, but when used as a parlay for Super Bowl prop bets, the odds for these sneak up to (+128).
Gray has 40 catches in 17 games this season, including the playoffs, for an average of 2.4 per game. He’s also nabbed three or more on nine occasions. The Chiefs will rely heavily on their short game to move the ball. With the likelihood that the Eagles will probably put a defensive back spy on Travis Kelce, be prepared for dual-tight end sets where Gray is the first option.
Saquon Barkley (RB, Philadelphia Eagles) | Over 112.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
There is a lot of talk this week about the Chiefs not allowing a 100-yard rusher in the playoffs under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They also haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season since Lamar Jackson in Week 1. So, what could possibly go wrong?
As noted, Barkley isn’t just anyone, and he has racked up one of the most impressive seasons in history. He went over 100 yards in 14 of 19 games (including the playoffs), over 150 yards six times and over 200 twice en route to over 2,000 yards on the season. Barkley is especially adept at breakaways; he’s galloped for over 50 yards on a single carry an eye-popping seven times. Just one of those puts Philadelphia in the driver’s seat and the running back is a shoo-in for this Super Bowl prop.
Not Just Bonus Bets | Touchdown Props
Normally, I’d throw an anytime touchdown here that has a good payout or could be a shot in the dark. Not this time. I feel so strongly about these two teams’ heavy hitters that I’ll climb out this limb and tell you that I’m playing all three of these touchdown props.
- Jalen Hurts | To Score the Super Bowl’s First Touchdown (+650)
- Saquon Barkley | Anytime Touchdown (-195)
- Travis Kelce | Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Best of luck with all your bets this weekend. It’s been a great season, let’s polish it off on a good note and stack a few more dollars. Brick by brick, we build!
RELATED: Betting Super Bowl Defensive Props: How Sacks, INTs & Tackles Offer Value
Thanks for checking out my favorite Super Bowl LIX player prop bets! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content.
*Photo Credit: Denny Medley- USA TODAY Sports*
