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PropKings: NFL Divisional Round (2024)

by Samwise

“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite NFL player prop bets for the 2024-25 Divisional Round playoffs.

After rolling into Wild Card Weekend on the strength of a 7-2 hot streak, we came out blazing with a pair of easy cashes thanks to C.J. Stroud and George Pickens. However, as the games got less predictable, so too did the picks. The Broncos and Packers each disappointed before Terry McLaurin picked up an easy dub on “Sunday Night Football.” All-in-all, we finished .500 for the round, bringing our record in the last three weeks to 10-5. Now, we set our sights on this weekend’s Divisional Round slate to build momentum going forward.

As always, I’ll post some extra picks (including spreads and totals) on my Twitter/X account @BuyAndSellYou before the games. Oddsmakers are playing their cards very close to the chest this week, so let’s see where we can catch them napping.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

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NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets of the Week (2024)

Joe Mixon (RB, Houston Texans) | Over 16.5 Receiving Yards  (-105)

Joe Mixon was a monster once again for Houston last week, tallying 119 yards from scrimmage and adding a trip to paydirt for good measure. If the Texans are to control the game flow on Saturday afternoon against the defending champion Chiefs, they’ll need to make their stud back a focal point.

The former Oklahoma Sooner had just one reception in his last two games, but he averages over 2.5 snags per contest on the season. The Chiefs boast one of the best rush defenses, so I expect the running back to supplement his opportunities with catches out of the backfield. Vegas has Mixon locked in for over three catches in this affair, and he averages 7.7 Yards Per Reception (YPR) on the season. The math checks out, making this a juicy prop bet for the NFL Divisional Round.

Kareem Hunt (RB, Kansas City Chiefs | Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)

On the other side of this matchup, Kansas City will likely lean on the run as much as possible to limit the big play chances from C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins. Since Isiah Pacheco returned to the Chiefs, the backfield has gone with the “hot hand” approach, but it’s worth noting that 29-year-old Kareem Hunt has toted the rock nine times or more in 11 of his 13 games with the team. He also had a stretch of 97 carries over just four games earlier in the season.

The Texans’ defense is fine against the run, but they are coming off a stretch of allowing an average of 128 rushing yards in their last three games. Pacheco will still be involved, but it will likely be Hunt handling the ball more in the backfield.

Terry McLaurin (WR, Washington Commanders) | Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

We’re running it back with “Scary” Terry McLaurin this week after he cashed in a solid performance in the Wild Card Round. This same prop was 60.5 yards last week; blink, and you missed it, but he quickly hauled in a 35-yard pass and put the icing on his line shortly thereafter, finishing with 89 yards.

Of course, that was against Tampa Bay. However, the Detroit Lions are suckers against wide receivers, too, checking in at second-to-last in catches allowed per game and in the basement in yards allowed to the position. With this game total set at a whopping 55 points, you can bet your bottom dollar on a shootout, and that’s a good thing for wideouts here.

Puka Nacua (WR, Los Angeles Rams) | Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-125)

This prop was available in last week’s books, too, and Puka Nacua carried the ball twice for seven yards during the dismantling of the Vikings. Nacua has gotten 12 carries on the season and has yet to average fewer than 2.5 Yards PEr Carry (YPC) when given the ball. This prop seems like a “will they/won’t they” affair that will come down to whether they pull an end-around out of their arsenal. I like the chances, though, as three of those carries came in the last two weeks, and Nacua always gets positive yardage on the play.

Dallas Goedert (TE. Philadelphia Eagles) | Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

The Rams had a dubious start to their 2024 season on defense, but they have been tightening the screws as of late. One need not look any further than the boom they lowered on Minnesota, in which they intercepted Sam Darnold once and tallied nine sacks. They only allowed the Vikings into the promised land in the third quarter, when T.J. Hockenson (six receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown) seemed to lay a road map for what Dallas Goedert can do in this matchup.

Hockenson led a team that included Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in receiving against a Rams secondary that was playing lights-out. The Rams were second-to-last this season against tight ends in yards per game (behind Kansas City) and tight end receptions per game (behind Cincinnati). The stars are aligned for Goedert in this one.

Mack Hollins (WR, Buffalo Bills) | Longest Reception Over 13.5 Yards (-115)

The last time Mack Hollins was on the field against the Baltimore Ravens, he hauled in one catch for five yards. To be fair, Hollins was not utilized as he has lately, but he has slowly worked his way into being a surprising weapon in the red zone and third-and-long situations. Since Nov. 3 versus Miami, Hollins has reeled in 25 catches for 316 yards, good for an average of 12.6 YPR.

The Ravens might bottle up James Cook and Ray Davis with their stout defense in this one, but the secondary is suspect. Baltimore has allowed the third-most passing yards per game this season, and that number balloons to add another 23.4 yards on the road. Everyone in the Bills’ passing game should eat as long as Josh Allen stays upright. That includes Hollins, who has beaten this 13.5-yard long reception prop in seven games this season.

Bonus Bet: Jameson Williams (WR, Detroit Lions) | Parlay (+305)

  • Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
  • Anytime TD (+130)
  • Over 3.5 Receptions (-155)
    • Parlay Odds (+305)

If you have a few bucks lying around, a +305 payout is not only plausible but likely in a game featuring a 55-point total. The numbers match up in such a way that Jameson Williams could conceivably hit all three in just a few plays. I’m not saying to go for broke, and all three bets do have standalone value, but instead of waiting for leg after leg to hit, you can put it all on one player’s performance. I like Williams to dance in the painted area during the NFL Divisional Round after not doing so in Week 18 but scoring in three straight games prior.

Best of luck with all your bets this weekend, and see you next week for the NFL Championship Round. Brick by brick, we build!

Check out all of our Divisional Round NFL betting content:

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Thanks for checking out my favorite Divisional Round player prop bets! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content. 

*Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty – USA TODAY Sports*

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