NFL Player Prop Bets Week 18 (2024)

“PropKings” is an article series revealing our staff’s best prop bets across the NFL, College Football, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This write-up features my favorite NFL player prop bets for Week 18.

We went 4-0 last week and crushed the books with relative ease on each of our player props. Let’s see if we can repeat that performance for the final week of the regular season! In Week 17, we were hyper-focused on teams with nothing to lose. With so many games this week having playoff implications, we’re getting into the nitty-gritty for some of those bringing their A-game. The prop options are very thin right now, with so many teams expected to rest, tank or hurry to the back nine with their clubs. Regardless, I believe we’ve found some diamonds in the rough.

Note: This entry only includes Sunday NFL Week 18 player prop bets. On Saturday, I’ll post a few props for the AFC North tilts on my Twitter/X account @BuyAndSellYou before the games. Let’s see what Vegas has in store for us to take advantage of.

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bets of the Week (2024)

Aaron Jones (RB, Minnesota Vikings) | Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I can only assume this total is low simply because Vegas thinks the Lions will put their foot on the gas to turn this game into a shootout. Given their secondary, I don’t know if that’s wise, but that’s a story for another day. The way to upstage Detroit is with sound defense and controlling the clock. Enter Aaron Jones, who has rushed for under 60 yards just five times this season. When he last saw the Lions (a 31-29 defeat at home), Jones rushed for 93 yards on 14 carries – a stout 6.6 Yards Per Carry (YPC). He also tacked on a touchdown and three receptions.

Jones has a sore quad stemming from Week 17 but will be on the field Sunday. Expect him to continue his usual workload, including clock-eating mode anytime the Vikings take the lead.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, New York Jets) | Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+140)

The last time I picked Aaron Rodgers was on this exact prop, and he failed miserably. So why run it back? There are simply too many variables to consider.

Rodgers recently acknowledged that Sunday could be his final NFL game. Although he stands just one touchdown away from the 500th of his career, there’s no reason to think he won’t be trying to go out in a blaze of glory. In addition, it could be his last game with his buddy Davante Adams, and they’ll want to re-live the glory days.

Rodgers has passed for two touchdowns in half of his games this season and three twice. Perhaps the most convincing reason to expect him to put up big numbers is in the spoiler role. The Jets host the division-rival Miami Dolphins, who need a win to make the playoffs should the Broncos (also playing in the afternoon slate) lose. The Jets fell to the Dolphins 32-26 in overtime on Dec. 8, and this time, the Dolphins are likely to be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Cal product passed for 339 yards and a touchdown in the game.

The revenge factor, division rivalry and a somewhat narcissistic need to show off one last time puts Rodgers in the catbird seat for a two- or three-touchdown performance.

Devaughn Vele (WR, Denver Broncos) | Over 11.5 Longest Reception (-120)

27-year-old rookie Devaughn Vele hasn’t put up flashy numbers through 12 games. Still, he’s asserted himself as a key cog in Denver’s dash toward the postseason. The former Utah Ute has accounted for 37 receptions totaling 425 yards this season from his position in the slot and is often a go-to on second or third-and-long.

His Yards Per Reception (YPR) total sits right on this prop at 11.5. In addition, Vele has had a long reception of at least 15 yards since Nov. 17 (six games), including longs of 24 and 33. Before that, he chipped in longs of 13, 16, 20 and 37 yards. The Broncos will have to throw the ball, even against a Chiefs defense that is resting many starters. This is a multi-unit bet for me, as I think Vegas has it wrong. It’s playable up to 12.

Brock Bowers (TE, Las Vegas Raiders) | Over 7.5 Receptions (-115)

If you’re feeling frisky, a good bet is plopping some dinero on a potential record-breaking performance. The Los Angeles Chargers still have a shot at the AFC’s No. 5 seed, and Jim Harbaugh has said he expects the team to play to win. His stance on playing starters may change well before the game if Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati on Saturday.

On the other side of the field, the Raiders are facing a divisional rival, and Antonio Pierce is likely coaching for his life. Expect them to go all out. That starts with tight end Brock Bowers, who, as a rookie, has been the team’s star player all season. This game should be more of the same, with the added incentive that Bowers can set the all-time record for tight end receptions in a season with nine more catches. With nothing else of note to play for, the Raiders want to get that for their rookie stud.

As for the prop, it’s a safe bet regardless of their record; Bowers is averaging 6.9 receptions per game and had six catches against Los Angeles in his first game as a pro.

Bonus Bet: Tyler Allgeier (RB, Atlanta Falons) | Anytime Touchdown (+225)

Best of luck with all of your bets this weekend. Brick by brick, we build!

Check out all of our Week 18 fantasy football content:

Thanks for checking out my favorite NFL Week 18 player prop bets! Track me down on Twitter/X @BuyAndSellYou for more fantasy football and NFL betting content.

*Photo Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA TODAY Sports*

Samwise

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PropKings: NFL Week 18 (2024)