70 men entered last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tenn. Now, only 50 of this season’s best PGA Tour golfers return to the Windy City and grueling Olympia Fields for the BMW Championship. The goal? To whittle down to the top 30 for next week’s Tour Championship in Atlanta.
Patrick Cantlay won the last two iterations of the BMW Championship on much easier courses than this one. As you can imagine, all 50 who made this field have the capability to win and contribute to a lucrative PGA DFS lineup build. With Georgia on their mind, the golfers will have a deep dish of treachery in front of them over the next four days.
PGA DFS: BMW Championship 2023 Breakdown
The North Course at Olympia Fields just outside Chicago is a bear. Not to be confused with the stellar Chicago-based television show, this bear gnashes its teeth and brandishes claws in the form of fairways narrower than a motorcycle parking space and Bentgrass rough deep enough for Al Capone to hide his secrets. The greens are small and fast, with tight runoffs contouring around nasty bunkers. The winning score here in 2020 was only four-under-par. Some of Jon Rahm’s par saves were so improbable en route to victory that you could argue the golf gods were on his side that week.
The best golfers to play at the BMW Championship in PGA DFS are the ones known for their ball-striking accuracy, combined with recovery skills when they inevitably find trouble. With a constricted field and no cut, fading chalk is a must.
Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Good Drives Gained
- Scrambling
- Proximity on Approach (150-200 yards)
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Par-4 Scoring
- Bogey Avoidance
Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.
You’ll hear me say the word “leverage” a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.
A popular player is deemed “chalky.” Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field.
Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for the BMW Championship.
PGA DFS: BMW Championship 2023 Picks
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)
Good Chalk: Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele
Bad Chalk: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa
Leverage: Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover
Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)
Good Chalk: Tom Kim, Russell Henley, JT Poston
Bad Chalk: Corey Conners, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Cameron Davis
Leverage: Jason Day, Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)
Good Chalk: Keegan Bradley, Eric Cole, Chris Kirk
Bad Chalk: Emiliano Grillo, Sahith Theegala, Lee Hodges, Byeong-Hun An
Leverage: Taylor Moore, Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, Kurt Kitayama
Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for The BMW Championship 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTime, and check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.