The most riveting stretch of any professional sports season is the postseason. The PGA Tour started the FedEx Cup Playoff structure back in 2012, with a points system set up to reward the top-125 golfers each year with a chance to win ungodly sums of money should they prevail.
Only 70 will be in Memphis for the first leg of the postseason at the FedEx St. Jude Championship this year. The top 50 will advance to next week’s BMW Championship, then only 30 will chase the pot of gold at East Lake Country Club in Atlanta for the Tour Championship. I’m already on pins and needles with excitement.
PGA DFS: FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023 Breakdown
TPC Southwind hosted the FedEx St. Jude Invitational until 2018, and then it was rebranded last year to replace the Northern Trust as the first event in the playoff bracket. The par-70 track measures 7,244 yards and is of average difficulty. Water hazards are in play on most holes, with Bermuda green complexes that can be described as small and fast.
The prototype golfer who excels here is both long and accurate off the tee but outstanding with their irons on approach. All 70 men in the field are enjoying successful seasons and are plenty capable of winning.
However, my weighted model will be heavily geared to favor the ones who are most known for their iron play prowess. Blues and barbecue take a back seat; we’re gambling on the riverboats this week.
Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:
- Proximity on Approach
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Accuracy
- Par-4 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Bogey Avoidance
Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.
You’ll hear me say the word “leverage” a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.
A popular player is deemed “chalky.” Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field.
Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
PGA DFS: FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023 Picks
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)
Good Chalk: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm
Bad Chalk: Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay
Leverage: Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa
Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)
Good Chalk: Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim
Bad Chalk: Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Tony Finau
Leverage: Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Sepp Straka
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)
Good Chalk: Byeong-Hun An, Andrew Putnam, Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo
Bad Chalk: Stephan Jaeger, JT Poston, Brendan Todd
Leverage: Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, Vincent Norrman, Kurt Kitayama, Brandon Wu, Hayden Buckley
Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for The FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTime, and check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.