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PGA DFS Picks & Predictions: Genesis Scottish Open 2023 | Matthew Fitzpatrick

PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open 2023

by Bo McBrayer

Bagpipes wail the brogue of my ancestors, with wafting peat moss smoke rising over the farmlands. A golf purist’s favorite two weeks of the season have arrived. The game was born here. My soul bleats for a zephyr under kilt and a dram neatly poured into a Glencairn.

The shafts are no longer hickory, and the balls haven’t been stuffed with feathers for a good while. The age-old Robin Williams bit is still just as funny. “If it’s not Scottish, it’s crrraphhh!” I wonder what the first golf bet entailed. I bet there was alcohol involved.

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PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open 2023 Breakdown

The Genesis Scottish Open is an event hosted at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, and shared by both the DP World Tour and PGA Tour. The last chance to qualify for next week’s Major at The Open, many top names have their sights set on excelling here to be ready for Royal Liverpool. The par-70 track is not a true links course, though some of the holes will offer views of the North Sea and have many of the traits of a links design.

Renaissance Club is well-manicured and has only an average distance of 7,200 yards. Scoring conditions depend entirely on the presence (or absence) of summer squalls, with gusting sea winds and soaking rain. It appears we are in for tempestuous conditions this year, but Scottish weather is often a trickster.

Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Three-Putt Avoidance
  • Proximity on Approach
  • Par-4 Scoring
  • Driving Distance

Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.

You’ll hear me say the word “leverage” a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.

A popular player is deemed “chalky.” Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field.

Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for the Genesis Scottish Open.

PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open 2023 Picks

(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)

High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)

Good Chalk: Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton

Bad Chalk: Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay

Leverage: Wyndham Clark, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)

Good Chalk: Min Woo Lee, Ludvig Aberg, Adam Scott

Bad Chalk: Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Sahith Theegala

Leverage: Alex Smalley, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns

Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)

Good Chalk: Alexander Björk, Kurt Kitayama

Bad Chalk: Adrian Meronk, Alex Noren

Leverage: Kevin Yu, Maximilian Kieffer, Dylan Wu, Robert Macintyre

Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for the Genesis Scottish Open 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTimeand check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.

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