Yet again, the In-Between Media (IBT) golf duo of myself and Conor Coughlin had the outright winner and numerous competitors pegged for last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Rickie Fowler’s first PGA Tour victory in over four years was well-celebrated across the golf community.
His PGA DFS scoring was incredible at the Detroit Country Club, where we leveraged his good chalk with Collin Morikawa, Adam Hadwin and Dylan Wu.
Scoring conditions will be favorable for a third-consecutive event at this week’s John Deere Classic in rural Illinois. The JDC is a gem of a mainstay on the PGA Tour and is among the more community-driven stops of the season.
PGA DFS: John Deere Classic 2023 Breakdown
TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill., is a fun public course that shows some teeth when the wind blows at 7,200 yards. The par-71 track is of average length but is not known for offering much in the way of defense against the best golfers in the world. The winning score on Sunday is likely going to approach 20-under par.
One very sticky attribute of champions in this event is putting. The top of the leaderboard is flooded with golfers who are adept with the flat stick, making it my most heavily emphasized metric to consider when building out a PGA DFS player pool. Ball-striking is always important, as well as recent form and course history.
Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Proximity on Approach
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Bogey Avoidance
Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.
You’ll hear me say the word “leverage” a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.
A popular player is deemed “chalky.” Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field.
Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for the John Deere Classic.
PGA DFS: John Deere Classic 2023 Picks
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)
Good Chalk: Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Taylor Moore
Bad Chalk: Russell Henley, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk
Leverage: Eric Cole, Adam Schenk, Ludvig Aberg, JT Poston
Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)
Good Chalk: Stephan Jaeger, Nick Taylor, Alex Smalley
Bad Chalk: Byeong-Hun An, Doug Ghim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Leverage: Taylor Montgomery, Mark Hubbard, Brendan Todd
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)
Good Chalk: Dylan Wu, Adam Svensson, Callum Tarren
Bad Chalk: Sam Stevens, Peter Kuest, Kevin Yu, Lucas Glover
Leverage: Sam Ryder, Justin Lower, Seung-Yul Noh, Zecheng Dou, Akshay Bhatia
Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for the John Deere Classic 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTime, and check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.