Last week’s Travelers Championship was a really successful event on the PGA DFS front for the In-Between Media (IBT) team. New England’s own Keegan Bradley took home the trophy and was an awesome centerpiece of one lineup that cashed five times my entry. Never satisfied, we’re certainly vying to snowball our bankroll out even more this week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
The best golfers in the world will once again have an easy time scoring birdies this week. With plenty of fantasy scoring lighting up the board, our focus will be keener on leverage when building our PGA DFS lineups. Detroit is home to my favorite genre of music and rolling out sweet new whips, but we’re getting down where the bentgrass grows, and the beers flow.
PGA DFS: Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 Breakdown
Detroit Golf Club is a sparkling gem in the state of Michigan. As Tour standards go, this track is very gettable. Scores are expected to approach 30-under par by Sunday, after four rounds on the 7,300-yard par-72 layout. Spacious fairways, wispy rough and flat terrain make for a bomber’s paradise. Longer hitters need not fret wayward tee shots. Wedge spin control is still manageable when the rough is hardly tough.
Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Proximity on Approach (100-150 yards in particular)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Par-5 Scoring
- Driving Distance
Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.
You’ll hear me say the word ‘leverage’ a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.
A popular player is deemed ‘chalky.’ Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field. Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
PGA DFS: Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 Picks
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)
Good Chalk: Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas
Bad Chalk: Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Keegan Bradley
Leverage: Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Cameron Davis
Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)
Good Chalk: Ludvig Aberg, Austin Eckroat, Byeong Hun An, Alex Smalley
Bad Chalk: Brian Harman, Stephan Jaeger, Sepp Straka, Aaron Rai
Leverage: Chris Kirk, Adam Hadwin, Taylor Moore, Nicolai Hojgaard, Joseph Bramlett
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)
Good Chalk: Brandon Wu, Thomas Detry, Kevin Yu, Carson Young
Bad Chalk: JJ Spaun, Doug Ghim, Adam Schenk, Lee Hodges
Leverage: Brendan Todd, CT Pan, Ben Griffin, Akshay Bhatia, Dylan Wu, Ben Martin
Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTime, and check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.