The Open Championship, known to some Americans as “The British Open,” is the final Major of the golf season and the one with the deepest, richest history. Golf purists just call it “The Open.”
The 151st Open will be held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, one of nine courses in the “rota.” Links golf is truly foreign compared to most of the courses in North America. 18 holes are woven seamlessly into the sand dunes and shrubbery along the British coastline and exposed to every seaside element. Come sunshine or squall, the wind is going to play a factor.
PGA DFS: The Open Championship 2023 Breakdown
Royal Liverpool is a par-71 that lays out to be nearly 7,400 yards. The town of Hoylake, England, sits on a peninsula west of the city of Liverpool along the west coast of the country along the Irish Sea. Wind and rain are commonplace in this part of the world. Top-70 and ties after 36 holes will qualify for the weekend cut. Links golf is unique in that any style of golfer can win, depending on the conditions.
I prefer to assume the weather will turn nasty and build rosters around golfers who can adjust their ball flight and trajectory should it be required. Those who are good at getting out of trouble and saving par are also preferred this week. Royal Liverpool is the second-longest course in The Open Championship rota behind Carnoustie. It also sports the narrowest fairways, so good driving will be something to keep an eye on.
Interior out of bounds occurs on various holes around the perimeter of a 150-year-old horse racetrack and pinches a few landing areas toward some of the nastiest pot bunkers in the world. Players who find the sand this week will be scrambling to avoid double bogey or worse. Consistent ball striking and a confident short game will be rewarded with a good amount of birdie opportunities, in turn.
Metrics My Weighted Statistical Model Focused on This Week:
- Scrambling
- Three-Putt Avoidance
- Proximity on Approach
- Good Drives Gained
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Winning at PGA DFS carries plenty of caveats. Naturally, you want all six golfers on your roster to make the 36-hole cut (top 60 and ties after round two). After that, scoring is about making birdies and avoiding bogeys (or worse). Bonus points are awarded for higher standings and birdie streaks of three consecutive holes.
You’ll hear me say the word “leverage” a lot when speaking about PGA DFS. Leverage is about positioning. It isn’t so much who you play but rather who you don’t. It’s risky to roster a golfer who is also rostered heavily by opposing lineups. There’s almost no reward when that player succeeds, par at best, to use a golf analogy. To make money playing DFS, it requires taking chances and making birdies when others are settling for par.
A popular player is deemed “chalky.” Good chalk is a popular player who is nearly certain to succeed. Bad chalk is a risky player that too many people have hitched their wagons to. A profitable DFS lineup will have a nice blend of good chalk and successful leverage. A leverage play is a good play that isn’t rostered by many… “lifting” it above the field.
Here’s how I’m attacking PGA DFS for The Open Championship.
PGA DFS: The Open Championship 2023 Picks
(Prices courtesy of DraftKings)
High-Priced ($9,000 & Higher)
Good Chalk: Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm
Bad Chalk: Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood
Leverage: Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson
Mid-Priced ($7,600 – $8,900)
Good Chalk: Wyndham Clark, Justin Rose, Min Woo Lee
Bad Chalk: Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Patrick Reed
Leverage: Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama
Value-Priced ($7,500 & Lower)
Good Chalk: Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Denny McCarthy
Bad Chalk: Robert Macintyre, Padraig Harrington, Louis Oosthuizen
Leverage: Nicolai Hojgaard, Brendan Todd, Alexander Bjork, Yannik Paul
Thanks for checking out my PGA DFS picks for The Open Championship 2023! Find all my work on Twitter, @Bo_McBigTime, and check out my huge collection of decadence at BigTime FlavorCo.