Another week of the 2024 NFL Season is here! Through the first six weeks, we’ve seen the Good, the Bad and the Ugly! Hopefully, you’ve seen more good than the bad or the ugly.
As always, I’ll recap the previous week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers.” Week 6 was similar to the phrase, “the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly!” This time, I’ll rephrase it to “the great, the decent, and the ugly,” as I had two from each.
Let’s start with “the Ugly.” I thought Justice Hill could bounce back from his 3.5-point performance in Week 5, but he did worse, with 1.4 Points Per Reception (PPR) points. Then, I called that a Patriots wide receiver could put up a sneaky game against the Texans, and it happened! Last week was the first time two Patriots wide receivers scored 14+ fantasy points in the same game since Week 17 of the 2022 season. The issue was I didn’t put Demario Douglas or Kayshon Boutte on this list; I put Ja’Lynn Polk, who also scored 1.4 fantasy points.
Now for “the Decent.” I called a Ravens tight end going off against the Commanders, but I chose Isaiah Likely instead of Mark Andrews. Likely was only 1.4 points under projection, so I’ll take it. Michael Wilson only scored 0.1 points under projection and is only decent because it’s not positive, despite being as close to equal projection as he could get.
It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for, “the Great!” All those games were in the early slate; the later games came in clutch for me. Jared Goff torched the Cowboys’ defense on Jerry Jones‘s 82nd birthday to score 10.7 points over projections. Then, albeit a slow start, Tyrone Tracy Jr. scored 10.4 points over his projection on Sunday night! Those double-digit over-projections helped leap this to a total of 6.1 points over projection!
Alright, enough reminiscing; let’s get right into Week 7’s “Shore Thing Sleepers” to consider in your start/sit decisions!
Fantasy Football Start/Sit Consideration: Week 7 Sleepers
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)
The injury bug bit the Los Angeles Rams hard, especially in the wide receiver room. In the last three games, Matthew Stafford has gone out there and been forced to throw to Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are resting from their injuries. Luckily, it is trending toward Stafford getting one of his weapons back this week in Kupp!
Although, getting Kupp back is only one of the reasons why I love Stafford this week. In both home games this season, he’s scored at least 12.8 fantasy points, and both without Kupp or Nacua. He is currently on a streak of five straight home games where he’s scored 12+ fantasy points, averaging 269.2 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions for 17.6 fantasy points in that span!
But wait, there’s more! The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the last five weeks. Four of the five quarterbacks have scored 17.4 fantasy points, and three of the last four have seen 23 or more fantasy points!
So, you have a team fresh off the bye week, regaining a healthy star wide receiver and facing a team that has allowed a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks in recent games. It’s almost a perfect scenario!
Running Back
Braelon Allen (New York Jets)
What a crazy few weeks it’s been for the New York Jets. The RB duo of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen struggled from Weeks 4-5. Hall re-emerged and was back to his superstar form on “Monday Night Football” with 21.9 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Allen scored only 0.8 fantasy points.
I don’t think we’ll see Allen score that low again this week. In the past three games, the Steelers have allowed a running back to score at least 17.5 fantasy points. Overall, in the span, Pittsburgh has allowed the 14th-most points to the running back position! While most of that was due to the RB1, something stood out to me last week. Ameer Abdullah scored 6.8 fantasy points against the Steelers last week on just seven touches and nine opportunities.
While Allen only saw five touches last week, I don’t think the rookie has been phased out of this offense. I think it had to do with Breece Hall having a hot hand and Allen’s inability to do much with his touches. Besides, if Abdullah did it last week, I can see the former Wisconsin Badger, at minimum, repeating that performance.
Trey Benson (Arizona Cardinals)
Last week, something weird happened against the Packers. Trey Benson got valuable snaps and, with that, had more rushing yards than James Conner. Since this is a Monday night game, it’s unclear if Conner sustained any injury that caused Benson to see non-garbage time carries. All I know is that Conner did come back into the game and did not have an injury designation announced during the game.
Are the tides turning, and will the rookie see more action? If so, this might be the right team to do it against. The matchup looks tough on paper, as the Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. But I’m guessing you didn’t know that the Chargers have allowed a team’s RB1 and RB2 to score 7.4+ fantasy points in two of their last three games.
I’m willing to take a stab at this! The rookie outrushing the RB1 in Conner last week and the Chargers allowing a duo to score a decent amount of fantasy points sounds like the perfect storm to see Benson’s breakout game.
Wide Receiver
Michael Wilson (Arizona Cardinals)
Let’s do it again, shall we? He might’ve only gone for two receptions for 21 yards, but Wilson scored a touchdown last week. That touchdown put his fantasy score to 10.1, 0.1 under his projection. Another big reason was Marvin Harrison Jr. suffered a concussion in the second quarter and did not return. Due to that, I’m also expecting Harrison Jr. to miss this week’s game. This would leave this “non-castaway” to step into the assumed X receiver role for the Cardinals.
I get it. Only having four targets and putting up a stat line where a touchdown saved his performance is grounds for concern. What isn’t concerning is the Chargers against the wide receiver position. The Chargers have allowed a WR1 and WR2 to score double-digit fantasy points in two of the last three games. I also believe it would have been three straight had Rashee Rice not suffered his season-ending injury in the first quarter against the Chargers in Week 4.
Six different wide receivers in this span have hit this double-digit threshold. Also, targets shouldn’t be an issue, as five of those six receivers saw at least four targets. It also helps that those five wide receivers averaged four receptions for 71.2 yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 14.7 fantasy points.
Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders)
Just leave it to me to call the sleeper receiver against the Rams this season. I have successfully called two of the three wide receivers to score 24+ fantasy points against the Rams, with Jameson Williams in Week 1 and Jauan Jennings in Week 3. The only other wide receiver to do so was Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 2, but he does not fit the “Shore Thing Sleepers” quota.
So, what’s got my spidey senses tingling about Tre Tucker this week? I understand; he only has 59 receiving yards in his last three games, with Davante Adams inactive. Also, it doesn’t help that he put up a goose egg last week with Adams and Jakobi Meyers both inactive. The opportunity will likely be there with Adams now a Jet and Meyers not practicing on Wednesday.
Do you know what Williams, Jennings and Harrison Jr. had in common against the Rams, not including the fantasy points? They are the only three wide receivers this season against the Rams to have over 32 Yards After Catch (YAC), and their air yards per target were 13.2 or more. Tucker leads all of the qualified receivers for the Raiders this season with 10.5 air yards per target! He also leads all Raiders WRs in YAC this season with 93, averaging 15.5 per game.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens)
There have been trust issues with Mark Andrews this season, and for good reason. Last week, he broke an eight-game streak dating back to last season of not scoring double-digit fantasy points. It’s time to forgive and move forward, though, because Mark Andrews has gone back-to-back games with four or more targets, 55+ receiving yards, and 9.5+ fantasy points!
Oh, and that’s not all; his matchup couldn’t be any sweeter! Tampa Bay has allowed four tight ends to score 7.4+ fantasy points in their last three games. In these last three weeks, the Buccaneers allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position! They also allowed the most receiving yards to the position in that span, with 282, an average of 94 yards per game! That’s 74 more yards than second place! The cherry on top is that all of this is happening despite being one of nine teams this season not to allow a tight end to score a receiving touchdown.
Check out all of our Week 7 fantasy football content:
- PropKings: NFL Week 7 (2024)
- Week 7 In the Scope Targets (2024)
- Week 7 Shore Thing Sleepers (2024)
- Week 7 NFL DFS Picks & Lineup Advice (2024)
- Fantasy Football Trade Targets | Week 7 (2024)
- Week 7 Fantasy Football Advice Mailbag (2024)
- Fantasy Football Whiplash! | Week 7 News & Notes (2024)
Thanks for reading this week’s “Shore Thing Sleepers”! If you’re looking for more fantasy content like this or need help with the last-minute fantasy football start/sit decisions for your roster, you can find me on Facebook at “Fantasy Sports Start or Sit’Em Questions” or on Twitter/X @FSSOSEQ.
*Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher – USA TODAY Sports*