“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This week’s bets features our favorite wagers for The 2023 Open Championship odds.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Open Championship 2023: Best Bets (Outrights):
- Jon Rahm (+1200)
- Dustin Johnson (+3000)
- Sam Burns (+6000)
Jon Rahm (+1200)
Jon who? The now world No. 3 hasn’t made much noise since April when he won The Masters and a runner-up at the Mexico Open two weeks later. His most recent outing at The Travelers Championship resulted in a missed cut, and his performance at the US Open before that was also somewhat uninspiring, though he did finish 10th. I will say that Jon Rahm is still one of the best golfers in the world and is quite possibly the most driven and fiery contender on Tour. He possesses the all-around game that it takes to be crowned Champion Golfer of the Year.
Everything about Rahm’s game is solid, with the exception of his around-the-green performance, which, once you dig into it, is actually not that bad. He tends to be flat as far as the shots gained metric is concerned. Rahm bombs the ball and has one of the most accurate and deadly approach games on Tour. His putter was somewhat cold starting out the year. Yet, since April, he has proven he can still putt with the best of them. The added edge on all of his elite skills is that he tends to play exceedingly better on firm and fast conditions, which Royal Liverpool will be. This is a player that we rarely, if ever, see double-digit odds on. I think Rahm ignites his fire this week and makes a run at The Open Championship title!
Dustin Johnson (+3000)
Are we still getting the LIV bump on our odds? I think so! Dustin Johnson at 30/1 seems like a misprice when you look at some of the golfers’ odds that are shorter than his. He has three top-10 finishes in his last three starts on the LIV Tour. He also had a win back in May in Tulsa. Johnson is elite and has a ball flight that is lower and more penetrating than most, which may come in handy at Royal Liverpool.
He has an excellent Open Championship history as well, finishing T6 and T8 in 2022 and 2021. “DJ” is another golfer who showed up in the US Open with a strong performance finishing T10. The last time The Open Championship was played at Royal Liverpool, DJ posted a -9 T12 finish. He has proven that he excels at links style golf and when DJ is on point he is still amongst golf’s elite. He is definitely worth a look this week.
Sam Burns (+6000)
I liked Sam Burns last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, and I continue to like where he is trending coming into this week. The weather conditions, though windier this week, are somewhat similar to last week. There will be some moisture, which will keep Royal Liverpool more receptive than typical. That is not to say that this is going to be anywhere near as receptive as last week, but it will aid some of the golfers that I view as being fringe plays. Burns did prove that he continues to play better in tougher conditions on tougher courses. He warmed himself up last week, and I think he continues to return to his 2022 season form and may surprise some people this week.
One of the biggest selling points to Burns is his recovery stats. He is excellent at scrambling, and his putter continues to pace in the top five in the world. These golfers are going to miss fairways and greens this week, and Burns has the game to get up and down. It doesn’t hurt that the big stick will have him taking aim from shorter distances. Much like last week, I may be playing more with my gut here, but he does have the game to rise to the top here if he puts it all together.
Other Open Championship 2023 Bets to Consider:
- Brooks Koepka (+1800)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
- Shane Lowry (+3500)
- Min Woo Lee (+7000)
- Alexander Bjork (+30000)
Bets Already on the Card:
- Rory McIlroy (+750)*
- Cam Smith (+1800)*
- Rickie Fowler +(2500)*
- Joaquin Niemann +(13000)*
*Check out my Open Championship early odds article for a better breakdown on these four players. Keep in mind Niemann has moved from +8000 in the preview all the way to +13000. This seems like an obscene value to me!
I love Rory McIlroy here! This means I will be betting on him and rostering him heavily in DFS. I believe he will be in one of the final groups on Sunday. A defending champion on this course, fresh off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open last week and in excellent form, I’m ready to see McIlroy hoist the Claret Jug again! The odds are short but it won’t stop me from going back to the well!
Thanks for reading my outright picks for The Open Championship. Be sure to tune into “The 19th Hole” live every Tuesday at 8:30 PM EST on our YouTube Channel!