Another week has passed with yet another Scottie Scheffler victory. Scottie may not be human.
We are headed to Toronto, Canada, for this week’s stop on the PGA Tour, the RBC Canadian Open. This tournament has become quite competitive over the years. I think the golf will be excellent, despite the field being a mixed bag and the course being less than exciting.
This is the first time that TPC Toronto will host the event. We don’t know much about how the course will play or who it favors. Rory McIlroy may very well notch his third win in Canada this week as he is clearly the best player in the field and this course also sets up in his favor, at least on paper. In the unlikely event that Rory doesn’t win this week, some other players could surprise.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
No Scottie, No Problems for Rory McIlroy & Others | RBC Canadian Open Bets 2025
Course Layout
The RBC Canadian Open will be played at TPC Toronto on the Osprey Valley’s North Course in Toronto, Canada. It is a par-70 course with 7,389 yards of Bentgrass fairways and greens.
Course Strategy
This is a parkland-style course, as is somewhat typical of the RBC Canadian Open, but it is the first time the event will be held at TPC Toronto. Not having seen this course in action, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly how it will play, but nothing stands out as being tremendously difficult to navigate. Obviously there will be trees lining the fairways, but those are larger than the Tour average. The greens are about slightly above Tour average and should remain somewhat receptive given the mild temperatures and conditions this week.
There are far fewer penal obstacles in play this week, as this course has the least water and sand the players have seen in about eight weeks. The course is long for a par 70 and, much like last week, will require some longer iron play. I don’t see a lot of penalties looking at this from a bomb and gauge perspective. All in all, this is heading towards a pretty uneventful four days on the course.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Off the Tee
- Shots Gained Approach
- Shots Gained Around the Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Bogey Avoidance
- Driving Distance
- Shots Gained Par-3
- Par-4 Scoring from 450-500 yards
Players to Target for RBC Canadian Open 2025:
Rory McIlroy (+450) | ($11,900)
Rory McIlroy is by far and away the best player in my model this week. He is obviously at short odds, but he’s playing ridiculous golf this year. It’s hard to argue that anyone is better off the tee than McIlroy. He has the distance to pick apart any course out there and, in doing so, is also generally very accurate.
McIlroy’s approach game has been on fire this season and he has made improvements to his wedge game, which only intensifies the lethality of his approach. The field here is also less than stellar, so McIlroy is very live to win this wire to wire. Even his “B” game is good enough to take TPC Toronto down.
Luke Clanton (+4000) | ($9,000)
Luke Clanton is someone you need to keep a close eye on week in and week out. He is one of the next big things in golf. Clanton rates out fourth for me this week. He leads the field in strokes gained off the tee over the last 36 rounds. His iron play has been elite and he rates out no lower than 12th in any of the approach ranges I measured this week. Clanton also rates third in the targeted par-4 scoring from 450-500 yards.
Clanton has one of the more well-rounded games of the young guns debuting on tour this season; he is unfazed by the big names and plays his game. I like the course setup. Everything he does well fits this course. This genuinely could be the Luke Clanton breakout we have been awaiting.
Lee Hodges (+12000) | ($7,000)
Lee Hodges was a big surprise in my modelling. He came in ninth this week, and that ranking is largely due to his elite iron game over the last 36 rounds. He is tenth in the field for approach and not just that; he is in the top ten for every approach bucket I considered for TPC Toronto. One critical metric this week will be strokes gained on par 4s at 450-500 yards, he also rated very well in that, coming in at sixth. I didn’t realize just how good Hodges has been with his irons. His off-the-tee game hasn’t been great, but he is still in the top 30 for strokes gained off the tee.
We will need Hodges to find the flat stick a bit this week. Putting doesn’t appear to be a critical stat here, but he certainly cannot have a repeat of his last two starts, where he lost an average of 2.1 strokes on the greens. Lee Hodges has a ton of upside this week, especially in this field.
Outrights to Consider:
- Corey Conners (+2000): Corey Conners is playing a home game this week. His off-the-tee game and approach have been great. We just need a flat week in the short game department.
- Sam Burns (+3000): Sam Burns has been playing great golf. All the stats are trending in the right direction, not the least of which is his putter, which has been on fire, gaining 7.1 strokes in his last start.
- Nick Taylor (+4500): After playing another solid week of golf, Nick Taylor looks to be trending up and has previously won this tournament. It’s also helpful knowledge that he is the top overall for strokes gained on par-4s of 450-500 yards.
- Cam Young (+6000): Cam Young is coming in fresh off qualifying for the US Open. He is another player who has the distance and the iron play to compete. It’s always a question of whether he can find his wedges and putter, but as of late, Young seems to have a firm grasp on both.
- Kevin Yu (+7500): Kevin Yu is one of the most well-rounded iron players in the field. Unlike some of the other players I mentioned, he is not elite on the par 4s, but he is on the par 3s, especially the longer ones. Yu has a unique advantage on this course and is a player to watch.
Longshots To Consider:
- Karl Vilips (+12000): Can Karl Vilips put it all together in Canada? He is so good. When he brings the complete game, he is always in contention for those tournaments come Sunday. Anytime I can get him at triple-digit odds, I’m taking it.
- Quade Cummins (+15000): Quade Cummins has been elite off the tee and in his short game. He has the distance and surprising accuracy off the tee to really overpower this course. It’s a long shot, but if he plays his game for all four rounds, Cummins is very live to win.
- David Ford (+25000): Another young gun with a complete game riding high on confidence, David Ford finished the year first in PGA University and will be making his first official start this week in Canada. This kid is the complete package and has had an amazing collegiate career. I think he gets off to a hot start here.
DFS Plays for RBC Canadian Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Rory McIlroy ($11,900)
- Corey Conners ($10,100)
- Shane Lowry ($9,900)
- Sam Burns ($9,300)
- Keith Mitchell ($9,100)
- Luke Clanton ($9,000)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,500)
- Taylor Pendrith ($9,700)
- Sungjae Im ($9,400)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Nick Taylor ($8,800)
- Kurt Kitayama ($8,400)
- Eric Cole ($8,100)
- Kevin Yu ($7,800)
- Alex Smalley ($7,600)
- Matt McCarty ($7,200)
- Lee Hodges ($7,000)
- Quade Cummins ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Wyndham Clark ($8,600)
- Max Homa ($8,200)
- Ryan Fox ($7,700)
- Taylor Moore ($7,600)
- Tom Kim ($7,300)
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,100)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Antoine Rozner ($6,900)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,800)
- David Ford ($6,600)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Adam Hadwin ($6,900)
- Charley Hoffman ($6,800)
- Nate Lashley ($6,600)
- Nick Dunlap ($6,600)
- Kevin Kisner ($6,300)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the RBC Canadian Open.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Raymond Carlin III – USA Today Sports*
