The Truist Championship, formerly the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, is our stop for the week, albeit with a new name and location. The Truist Championship is a no-cut event with 72 of the best players on tour in attendance.
The course itself is relatively unknown; it has undergone renovations and has not held a PGA event since. It looks to be a course that will favor accuracy above all else and will most likely be torn apart by this field over the next four days. Additionally, the week before a major is always a mixed bag of players, whether they’re tuning up or looking ahead and putting forth maximum effort for the bigger-than-average purse attached to a signature event.
We have identified a mix of players who either have great seasons going and may run away with it this week, or longshots with high upside. Either way, we are here to win you money and we are on a heck of a winning streak, so how about we dive right in?
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Is Russell Henley Truly a Favorite This Weekend? | The Truist Championship Bets 2025
Course Layout
The Truist Championship will be played at the Philadelphia Cricket Club, specifically the Wissahickon Course in Flourtown, Pennsylvania. The course is a par-70 with 7,119 yards of Bentgrass fairways and greens.
Course Strategy
The course itself plays on the shorter side. While distance never hurts, this course will emphasize accuracy more than anything else. Fairways are wider than the PGA Tour average but are riddled with strategically placed bunkers. In fact, there are about 120 bunkers on the course. The greens are above average size to Tour standard, but play very firm and fast. The biggest secret here is to keep the ball on lies that allow players to have their approach shots be easily controlled. Shot shaping and green hold are going to be very important this week.
Building Our Betting Model
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
- Shots Gained Approach 125-150 Yards
- Shots Gained Par-5
- Birdie-or-Better
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Sand Saves
Players To Target for the Truist Championship 2025:
Justin Thomas (+1800) | ($10,000)
Justin Thomas is having an amazing year. I know that’s not news to anyone who follows us. We love “J.T.” and are pulling for him every week. The monkey is now off his back since getting the win at the RBC Heritage and I expect that he really kicks it into high gear from here on out. This is starting to look like vintage Thomas. We all know he is an amazing iron player and will need the full complement of irons to navigate this accuracy-driven second-shot course.
The knock on Thomas continues to be the off-the-tee game. His accuracy is not quite back to the elite level of some of the other favorites in this field. I think the fairways here will offer a bit more forgiveness and allow him to throttle down off the tee. The more control he can deploy while deemphasizing power and length, the better he should perform. Thomas’ short iron and wedge play is elite, his putter has been elite and the form is there. Place a bet quickly, as this line has been moving all week.
Russell Henley (+3000) | ($9,400)
The top player in my model this week is Russell Henley and he has all the tools to win this tournament. First, he is having an excellent year, including winning at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Henley checks all the boxes and ranks in the top ten for every single stat I looked at this week. His approach game is elite and he’s even better at the shorter yardage buckets, which this course will throw at players. Henley’s accuracy is almost unparalleled in this field. His putting has been on fire all season.
On the rare occasion that Henley misses a green, his up-down game rates out fifth in the field. There really isn’t anything that should stand in Henley’s way at the Truist. The only question remaining is if his steady play can generate enough birdies to keep up.
Andrew Novak (+5500) | ($7,800)
What can I say? I love Andrew Novak. I like the cool, calm and deliberate way he navigates the course, his quick decision-making and his even quicker execution when on the course. His game is awesome as well and he is having one heck of a year, including his recent win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with his partner Ben Griffin.
Novak can get a little wayward here and there, but it tends to be from the longer approach distances. With the shorter approach buckets, like on this course, he rates in the top five and on an elite level. If he does miss these putting greens, much like Henley, he gets up and down. The other thing to like about Novak is that he is fifth in this field for sand save percentage and given the 120 bunkers on this course, it’s nice to have a safety net knowing he can play from the beach and not have to worry. He can make birdies in bunches and is very apt at not giving strokes back. Novak has the firepower to keep up with the big boys here.
Other Outrights to Consider:
- Rory McIlroy (+400): Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know Rory McIlroy is having one of the greatest seasons of his career. This is not a tough course and McIlroy already has three wins this season.
- Collin Morikawa (+1400): Collin Morikawa has an elite iron game and excellent accuracy. Let’s hope that he keeps his putter and around-the-green game in check. If he does, he can absolutely come away with the win.
- Sepp Straka (+4000): Sepp Straka surprised me with how highly he rated out, as he is rated third in the model. He is deadly accurate on approach and, somewhat surprisingly, equally accurate off the tee. He’s quietly having a great season with a win at The American Express and, most recently, a 13th-place finish at RBC Heritage. Straka makes a ton of sense on this track.
- Sam Burns (+5000): I featured Sam Burns last week and we were close. Or at least, as close as one could be in a field where Scottie Scheffler steamrolled the competition. Burns finished T-5, continuing his trend towards a win. It’s a good number this week and Burns is elite on the greens and with the short game.
- Michael Kim (+6000): We haven’t talked about Michael Kim as much lately but he started this season as one of the hottest players on PGA Tour. He has cooled off more recently but still rates out incredibly well for this course at eighth in the model. He is definitely worthy of a bet at 60-1. He can get crazy hot and if he does, it would be no surprise to see him competing late on Sunday.
Longshots to Consider:
- Tom Hoge (+11000): All you need is an accurate approach on a shorter course and Tom Hoge is in play. He can get hot quickly and his putter comes along for the ride. These are exactly the types of setups Hoge pops on.
- Brian Campbell (+25000): We saw Brian Campbell win in Mexico with a similar setup. As of late, he hasn’t had the best form but his wedge game is deadly when he gets it going and his wayward driver is less concerning with this course setup. Campbell is a long shot but it’s a true possibility and I have done infinitely dumber stuff with $5.
PGA DFS Plays for The Truist Championship 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Rory McIlroy ($12,000)
- Collin Morikawa ($10,500)
- Justin Thomas ($10,000)
- Russell Henley ($9,400)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Xander Schauffele ($10,200)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
- Viktor Hovland ($9,100)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Corey Conners ($8,800)
- Sepp Straka ($8,700)
- Keegan Bradley ($8,100)
- Sam Burns ($7,900)
- Andrew Novak ($7,800)
- Michael Kim ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Sungjae Im ($8,400)
- Min Woo Lee ($8,200)
- Tony Finau ($7,400)
- Keith Mitchell ($7,400)
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,100)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Harris English ($6,900)
- Sam Stevens ($6,700)
- Tom Hoge ($6,700)
- Ryan Gerard ($6,600)
- Alex Noren ($6,200)
- Garrick Higgo ($6,100)
- Brian Campbell ($6,000)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Sahith Theegala ($6,900)
- Matt Fitzpatrick ($6,800)
- Eric Cole ($6,700)
- Max Homa ($6,500)
- Nick Dunlap ($6,000)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The Truist Championship.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Peter Casey – USA Today Sports*
