Welcome to Quail Hollow and the PGA Championship! I love this course and look forward to it during the regular season every year, as it is normally home to the Truist Championship. This is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour and is a fitting venue for a Major championship.
Quail Hollow is undeniably Rory McIlroy’s house. No one has had the success that he has had here, and there are some narratives with McIlroy now that he has sealed the deal on the Career Grand Slam. Can he complete the single-season Grand Slam? The venues all favor him more than any other player. Another golfer gathering momentum is Jordan Spieth, as he needs the PGA Championship to complete his Career Grand Slam. Of course, there are plenty of other players waiting in the wings to dash their hopes.
One thing is for sure: this PGA Championship is setting up to be one of the best we’ve seen in years. If the Masters is any indication, we are in for some seriously amazing golf this week.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Can A Red-Hot Rory McIlroy Win Back-To-Back Majors? | The PGA Championship Bets 2025
Course Layout
The PGA Championship will be played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This course has a par of 71 and features 7,626 yards of Bermuda & Poa Fairways and greens.
Course Strategy
A majority of the par-4s here are longer than the PGA Tour average, limiting some of the scoring potential. Quail Hollow is home to the “Green Mile,” the most difficult closing three-hole stretch on Tour. The 16th hole measures around 529 yards, followed by a long par-3 and concluding with another 500-yard par-4. and water is firmly in play on all three of these holes. The course demands accuracy and a well-rounded game. Most greens are heavily guarded by bunkers and sloped fronts. If you stick it, you’ll be met with tricky sloping greens playing quicker than the Tour average. Distance is a weapon here, but also requires accuracy given the fairway bunkering and dense tree cover. The fairways aren’t particularly narrow, but will penalize you if you’re out of position. Pars are good scores here, bogey avoidance is critical and making birdies whenever the opportunity presents itself is a must.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Approach
- Proximity (150-175 yards) (200+ yards)
- Shots Gained Putting
- 3 Putt Avoidance
- Shots Gained Par 4 (450+ yards)
- Shots Gained Par 5
- Bogey Avoidance
- Fairways Gained
- Driving Distance
Players to Target for The PGA Championship 2025:
Rory McIlroy (+500) | ($12,200)
Rory McIlroy owns Quail Hollow. He has four wins here, ten top 20s, nine top 10s, the course record at 61 and the overall record at 102 under par since 2010. I’m not sure how you can not bet McIlroy this week. He is absolutely on fire this season. He is arguably the best player in the world and he’s not showing any signs of slowing down. Distance and accuracy will matter here, and McIlroy is the best in the business off the tee, which likely explains his success here over the years.
His shaky wedge play of years past is no more, as McIlroy has found control and accuracy with the shorter irons. Over the last year, his putter has given him some fits, but that has also become a deadly weapon. He is gaining an average of 3.1 strokes over his last five starts. There are no holes in his game coming into the PGA Championship. I am locked in on Rory McIlroy this week.
Justin Thomas (+2200) | ($9,900)
Justin Thomas has been having an amazing year. He feels like he’s right on the verge of making an epic run. He is playing with one of his best weapons in confidence. We all know he has an elite approach game, but what has been overlooked is the improvement to his off-the-tee game. Thomas tends to have some accuracy issues, but over his last five starts, he has managed to level that out. He isn’t gaining a ton off the tee, but for the first stretch in a long time, he isn’t losing either.
Thomas was recently victorious at the RBC Heritage and followed it up with a second-place finish at the Truist Championship. He also won the PGA Championship when it was last hosted at Quail Hollow in 2017. “JT” knows this course well and his game is fine-tuned, setting him up almost perfectly to see another win here.
Sepp Straka (+6000) | ($8,000)
Sepp Straka was flying a little bit under the radar last week before winning the Truist Championship, although hopefully you read my article and tailed me. He is rating out incredibly well for Quail Hollow this week. Straka is fourth in my modeling this week, but what fuels his ranking? His excellent approach game rates out second in this field. Put simply, he is deadly with the irons.
Quail Hollow doesn’t freely give scoring opportunities, but par-5s are one area in which the field can take advantage. Straka is on top in this field in par-5 scoring over the last 36 rounds. I don’t normally love betting a player fresh off a win, especially when the following tournament is a Major, but Straka sets up too well to be ignored. I liked him last week and I think the recipe for success looks very similar this week.
Other Outrights to Consider:
- Scottie Scheffler (+450): What can I say? It’s Scottie Scheffler. He is always live to win and will likely be in the final pairings on Sunday.
- Brooks Koepka (+4500): Brooks Koepka is your guy when the driver and long irons are weapons. He has been quiet lately, but the “big game hunter” can never be overlooked. I like the value we are getting on Koepka, who has a proven Majors track record.
- Patrick Cantlay (+4500): I don’t want to have to watch Cantlay play the final round, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a strong player this week. He has the type of steadfast consistency that you need at a course like Quail Hollow. He is accurate in all aspects of his game. Finishing in fourth place at the Truist Championship, he gained almost six strokes on the field on approach, so he is trending at the right time. Don’t sleep on Cantlay.
- Jordan Spieth (+5000): I’m going along on this ride, wishfully thinking that Spieth might have a shot at completing the career Grand Slam. However, the bet isn’t purely wishful thinking! As of late, Spieth has been playing solid golf and the accuracy issues that previously plagued him seem to be under control.
Longshots To Consider:
- Daniel Berger (+10000): Berger has been playing great golf. Quail Hollow is stingy with its scoring opportunities, which plays into Berger’s strengths. He’s not going to win a birdie fest, but grinding out a score and not giving strokes back is right up his alley.
- Cam Smith (+13000): There is an argument to be made that no one is better at scrambling and getting up and down to save par. Cam Smith hasn’t done much since moving to the LIV Tour but I have a gut feeling that he surprises this week. If Cam Smith gets hot, he can make a run at winning here.
- Karl Vilips (+50000): I will keep banging the drum that Vilips is an elite future star. With him being at 500-1 odds, it’s truly a stellar value. He can absolutely compete on a wide range of course setups and he has a win under his belt this year. The stats will help back the bet, but the player he is will emerge and I will keep betting Vilips every week, especially when he’s at triple-digit odds.
DFS Plays for The PGA Championship 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,400)
- Rory McIlroy ($12,200)
- Justin Thomas ($9,900)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11,500)
- Jon Rahm ($10,200)
- Viktor Hovland ($9,800)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Cam Smith ($8,400)
- Patrick Reed ($8,100)
- Sepp Straka ($8,000)
- Daniel Berger ($7,900)
- Sam Burns ($7,700)
- Rickie Fowler ($7,100)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Min Woo Lee ($8,600)
- Wyndham Clark ($8,500)
- Sahith Theegala ($7,900)
- Dustin Johnson ($7,600)
- Tony Finau ($7,400)
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,300)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,700)
- Andrew Novak ($6,600)
- David Puig ($6,500)
- Matt McCarty ($6,300)
- Ryan Gerard ($6,000)
- Eugenio Chacarra ($5,800)
- Karl Vilips ($5,700)
- Tom McKibbin ($5,600)
- Sami Valimaki ($5,500)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Aaron Rai ($6,800)
- J.J. Spaun ($6,400)
- Jake Knapp ($6,300)
- Keith Mitchell ($6,200)
- Tom Hoge ($5,900)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($5,700)
- Ryo Hisatsune ($5,500)
- Phil Mickelson ($5,400)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The PGA Championship.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Bill Streicher – USA Today Sports*
