Another Major has come and gone, and we saw yet another Scottie Scheffler victory. We had high hopes for Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth but none of those golfers made any noise. Scheffler started in terrible form but rallied and brought home the win over the rest of the week.
At this point, if Scheff is teeing it up, is he just an auto bet? Even his “B” game seems to be good enough to run away with tournaments. That being said, we have a much lesser field this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scottie Scheffler has an excellent course history at the Colonial Country Club, but is listed at a mere +250 on most books. I will likely be overinvested in him this week while hoping to find some value down the board that could make an unlikely run at winning the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge.
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Who Can Defeat Scottie Scheffler? | The Charles Schwab Challenge Bets 2025
Course Layout
The Charles Schwab Challenge will be played at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. This course features a par of 70 and 7,289 yards of Bermuda Fairways and Bentgrass greens.
Course Strategy
Colonial is tight and tree-lined with tiny greens, so accuracy is critical here. Given that accuracy is needed off the tee to stay in the fairway, distance has not been a weapon. Rather, a strong strategy and excellent approach from all distances is far superior. The greens are heavily guarded by bunkers, with over 80 in play. Water comes into play on six holes, adding even more emphasis to accuracy. The course itself can be tamed by almost any type of golfer… as long as they are accurate.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Approach
- Approach from (200+ yards), (125-150 yards)
- Fairways In Regulation / Greens In Regulation
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Shots Gained Putting on Bentgrass
- Sand Save %
Players to Target for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2025:
Daniel Berger (+2500) | ($9,900)
I took a few weeks off from Daniel Berger but Colonial Country Club seems like a great spot to jump back on him. Berger has a mixed bag of results at Colonial, though inside that mixed bag includes a win in 2020. He has been playing excellent golf all season, and we’ve seen him rising near the top when the course calls for accuracy and scrambling ability over distance. The course does just that. The importance of accuracy and scrambling here far surpasses any other stat profile.
Berger’s approach game has been elite over his last 10 starts, gaining nearly 2.6 strokes on average. He is in the top five for every approach bucket I examined and is third in opportunities gained on approach. Berger is excellent at avoiding bogies, rating out fourth overall, and Colonial can play a little tougher than most courses. He rates out second overall for me, just behind Scottie Scheffler. Statistically, Daniel Berger is the next best course fit and he’s sitting at 10 times the odds of Scheffler. He seems like a great value at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Si Woo Kim (+4000) | ($8,900)
Si Woo Kim is getting hot. He had a strong performance at the PGA Championship and now holds the record for the longest hole-in-one at a Major. Kim rates ninth for strokes gained approach and that rank has been on the rise week after week. His iron play has been elite.
The big knock on Si Woo Kim has always been his putting, but that has actually been near flat over his last five starts. He had an excellent week on the greens at Quail Hollow, gaining 6.8 strokes. Kim doesn’t have the best recent history at Colonial, but he does fit the course. He has a great approach game and excellent bunker skills, and Kim can get hot on the greens occasionally. If that putter keeps rolling, Si Woo Kim is likely to be competing hot and heavy come Sunday.
Sami Valimaki (+15000) | ($6,900)
Sami Valimaki is a misprice. He rates out fourth in my model and despite missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he has been on a hot streak. The cut came courtesy of losing on approach and putting, which are the two strengths of his game. Before Quail Hollow, Valimaki had not lost strokes on approach or putting in five starts. He is averaging 2.1 strokes gained on approach and 1.6 strokes gained putting over his last 10 starts.
He rates out incredibly well in opportunities gained and putts made from 5-15 feet. That’s a recipe for a lot of birdie conversions. Much like my other plays this week, Valimaki is also apt at avoiding bogies, rating out third this week in that metric. He is deadly accurate on approach, elite with the putter and avoids big numbers. Sami Valimaki is checking all the boxes at Colonial Country Club with tantalizing odds.
Other Outrights to Consider:
- Scottie Scheffler (+250): I think we all know by now that you can never fade Scottie Scheffler. I will probably invest less heavily on the +250 and hope to go bigger on a live bet if he gets off to a slow start.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2500): I keep getting sucked into betting on Tommy Fleetwood. He fits the course well and has been playing great golf this year. He has to win at some point, right?
- Ryan Gerard (+6500): I love Ryan Gerard this week, fresh off his eighth-place finish at the PGA Championship. He is having a great season that features a lot of top tens and this seems like a spot to break through.
- Henrik Norlander (+15000): Henrik Norlander doesn’t make my card often, but he popped to second in approach this week, which caught my attention. What kept my attention was his sand game and bogey avoidance, where he came in inside the top ten. And speaking of the top ten, he was ninth overall in the model this week.
- Frankie Capan III (+100000): I’ll throw $5 at 1000-1 odds for Capan. He has not been able to get it going on the PGA Tour yet, but this is a player with a very solid iron game and one of the best putters. He is inside the top 25 for strokes gained around the green, which is important with the green complexes at Colonial. We would need the stars to align a bit, but if Capan finds his confidence, this is a really good fit for him.
DFS Plays for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,700)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000)
- Daniel Berger ($9,900)
- Mav McNealy ($9,500)
- Aaron Rai ($9,100)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Jordan Spieth ($9,800)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600)
- Keith Mitchell ($9,000)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Si Woo Kim ($8,900)
- Ben Griffin ($8,700)
- J.J. Spaun ($8,400)
- Ryan Gerard ($7,900)
- Bud Cauley ($7,800)
- Alex Smalley ($7,700)
- Lee Hodges ($7,300)
- Seamus Power ($7,000)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Davis Riley ($8,600)
- Kurt Kitayama ($7,600)
- Tom Kim ($7,600)
- Tom Hoge ($7,400)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Sami Valimaki ($6,900)
- Ricky Castillo ($6,900)
- Neal Shipley ($6,900)
- Henrik Norlander ($6,800)
- Andrew Putnam ($6,700)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,600)
- Frankie Capan ($6,100)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Isaiah Salinda ($6,900)
- Matt Kuchar ($6,800)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700)
- Karl Vilips ($6,400)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The Charles Schwab Challenge.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Daniel Dunn – USA Today Sports*
