Welcome to “Jack’s Place!” The Memorial at Muirfield Village Golf Club should prove to be one of the more challenging events of the season. The course always plays tough and since it’s a signature event, the stakes are high and the field features the best of the best. The U.S. Open is just over two weeks away and this will likely serve as a tune-up and a bit of assessment as to how these players are stacking up coming into the next Major.
This is yet another week with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite by a large margin and at this point, rightfully so. Will this be another cake walk for Scheffler? I, for one, am not diving into the +280 waters. Read on and we will find some players with some real win equity and better odds!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Who Leads the Fleet of Golfers To Defeat Scottie Scheffler? | The Memorial Tournament Bets 2025
Course Layout
The Memorial Tournament Presented by Workday will be played at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. This Jack Nicklaus-designed course has a par-72 with 7,569 yards of Bentgrass Fairways and greens.
Course Strategy
This signature event features 73 players, and the top 50 and ties make the weekend. Muirfield is a very difficult track and demands accuracy both off the tee and on approach. The fairways are tree-lined and a smidge wider than we have seen in previous weeks, but bunkering and hazards are still in play. Not to mention, the rough is some of the deepest and most punishing that players see outside of the Majors. The greens are small and surrounded by bunkers. Around the green and scrambling are firmly in play this week, and it’s rare to see a player excel here who does not possess the skills to get up and down. Water is in play on 70% of the holes as well, so there is plenty of trouble to get into this week.
Building Our Betting Model
- Shots Gained Tee to Green
- Shots Gained Approach
- Opportunities Gained
- Approach from 150-200 Yards
- Shots Gained Around the Green
- Sand Save %
- Shots Gained Putting on Bent
- Bogey Avoidance
Players to Target for The Memorial Tournament 2025:
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) | ($9,400)
Tommy Fleetwood continues expanding his record of top ten finishes without a win, racking up lucky number 41 last week. There are many people out there who think Fleetwood will never win, but I’m not one of them. He is far too good a player not to win multiple times in his career. I will say, not winning after 156 PGA Tour starts may suggest it’s probably wishful thinking at this point. However, I’m going to ignore the past and look at the golfer Fleetwood is today, who is in excellent form.
He is rated fifth overall this week for me and is one of the few golfers not in the red in any category I considered. Muirfield requires excellent play from tee to green and Fleetwood rates out fourth over the last 36 rounds for strokes gained. There is a correlation between winning at Muirfield with strokes gained around the green and he is second in this field. This event is often a modest winning total and given Fleetwood’s steady game, which is generally devoid of risk, this does set up quite well for him. There are a few scoring opportunities here as well; Par-5s are the key to making hay and he rates out 15th. There is a lot to like about Tommy Fleetwood this week. I’m going to ride with him at “Jack’s Place.”
Si Woo Kim (+4000) | ($8,300)
I liked Si Woo Kim last week and will stick with him again this week. Everything I liked about him last week translates over to The Memoria Tournament, plus he has a good course history here. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in his last five starts and has two top tens as well.
I mentioned that there are limited scoring opportunities at Muirfield, and Kim is fourth in this field for avoiding giving strokes back and fifth for Par-5 scoring. He rates out as the best in the field for strokes gained around the green, which will be very important this week. Kim is always live to burn you in the form of terrible putting, but over his last two starts, he is averaging almost 4.5 strokes gained putting. He is hot and when Si Woo gets hot, he can absolutely win at any moment.
Andrew Novak (+6000) | ($7,100)
I had been taking a small break from Andrew Novak, whom I had been betting literally every week, but couldn’t resist this week. Novak is not necessarily known for his accuracy, but he is elite around the greens and has had a hot hand on approach.
He is fresh off an 11th-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he gained four strokes on approach and 3.5 strokes off the tee. My hope is that he found something within controlling his shots. The fact that he rates eighth in strokes gained around the green and sixth in strokes gained on Par-5s tilts the scales in his favor with the way Muirfield sets up.
Bud Cauley (+10000) | ($6,800)
Bud Cauley finished in third place last week at the Charles Schwab on the back of an excellent around-the-green game and scorching putter. We’ve been calling for a Bud Cauley win this season and though this is a big stage, it is definitely within the realm of possibilities.
Cauley spiked to seventh in my model this week and while there isn’t a specific stat that jumps off the page, he is good in almost every category I examined. Specifically, he excels at long approach shots, bogey avoidance, sand save percentage, strokes gained around the green and strokes gained putting. With an already-consistent game, he has all the right strong points to make a run at winning at “Jack’s Place.”
Outrights to Consider:
- Justin Thomas (+1800): I love everything “JT” is doing this season and now that he’s back in the win column, I expect his confidence to continue to rise. Thomas may very well own the back half of the season and could start this week. If he’s playing, I’m betting on him.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3500): Hideki Matsuyama plays at “Jack’s Place” as well as anyone and has the approach game and up-and-down skills to win this tournament going away. Don’t sleep on Matsuyama this week.
- Sepp Straka (+4000): Sepp Straka had an outlier week at the PGA Championship, losing strokes on approach and missing the cut. That isn’t likely to repeat itself and I expect him to show why he has won twice this season and come out guns blazing.
- Keegan Bradley (+5000): “Captain” Keegan Bradley is well-positioned this week, with a solid long approach game, excellent around the green and scrambling stats. Bradley is having a heck of a season and has been close to winning multiple times, so I love the way he sets up here.
- Akshay Bhatia (+7000): I know it’s not always a widely accepted take, but Akshay Bhatia has brilliant shot-shaping skills, especially in the wind. I love the iron play he brings to the table. This is the type of tournament where every shot counts and when Bhatia is on with the irons, he is nearly infallible.
Longshots To Consider:
- Christian Bezuidenhout (+11000): Christian Bezuidenhout spiked in our model unexpectedly last season and came through with a fourth-place finish. His short game and around-the-green game catapulted his value at Muirfield. He was close last season, so with the same guy and the same course, it’s worth the longshot.
- Brian Campbell (+25000): Brian Campbell surprised once already this season with his victory. This course is longer than I would like for Campbell, but his iron play and particularly his wedge play border on elite. On a course that requires good wedge play around the green, I’ll throw a little money on Campbell, who can play steady and not give shots back. This is a course on which Campbell could shock the world. Five dollars seems like a high percentage lottery ticket.
DFS Plays for The Memorial Tournament 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,300)
- Xander Schauffelle ($10,900)
- Justin Thomas ($10,100)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,400)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,500)
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,300)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Sepp Straka ($8,800)
- Shane Lowry ($8,700)
- Russell Henley ($8,400)
- Si Woo Kim ($8,300)
- Keegan Bradley ($8,000)
- Ben Griffin ($7,800)
- J.J. Spaun ($7,500)
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,300)
- Andrew Novak ($7,100)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Tony Finau ($8,200)
- Sungjae Im ($8,100)
- Mav McNealy ($7,700)
- Min Woo Lee ($7,400)
- Wyndham Clark ($7,200)
- Rickie Fowler ($7,000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Christian Bezuidenhout ($6,900)
- Bud Cauley ($6,800)
- Michael Kim ($6,800)
- Ryan Gerard ($6,700)
- Brian Campbell ($6,100)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Sahith Theegala ($6,900)
- Cam Young ($6,700)
- Matthias Schmid ($6,400)
- Tom Hoge ($6,400)
- Nick Dunlap ($6,000)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins The Memorial Tournament.
Be sure to check out our golf crew every week on the 19th Hole for more golf betting and DFS analysis. Plus, follow me on Twitter/X at @CoughDFS for more content!
*Photo Credit: Jim Dedmon – USA Today Sports*
