The 125th US Open heads to Oakmont, Pennsylvania and the Oakmont Country Club is one of the most challenging courses in the US Open rotation. The last time the US Open was held at Oakmont was in 2016, when Dustin Johnson won. However, it’s highly unlikely that we see Johnson return to his World Number 1 form of 2016 this time around.
Scottie Scheffler comes in as the undeniable World Number 1 golfer, especially after Rory McIlroy’s rapid decline since the Masters. Oakmont is a very challenging course; the greens are exceedingly difficult and will likely be rolling at a 15 on the Stimpmeter. That is not necessarily a prime setup for the Scheffler, who is at exceedingly short odds this week.
The US Open is a Major and the world’s best golfers are here. It’s going to take the whole bag this week!
(Odds and salaries courtesy of DraftKings)
Can Denny McCarthy Overcome the Carnage in Oakmont? | US Open 2025 Bets
Course Layout
The 125th US Open is at Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania. The course’s par is 70 and 7,372 yards. The greens are tricky as they are Poa.
Course Strategy
Oakmont is one of the most difficult courses in the US Open rotation. The par 5s are all exceedingly long, with two measuring 600+ yards. The par 3s can be stretched out quite long as well and during practice rounds, the 8th hole has been stretched out to nearly 300 yards. On this course, the par 4s are relatively short compared to other events and will allow the players some reprieve from the very challenging par 3s and 5s. The layout is built to encourage accuracy. The fairways are very narrow, measuring less than 20 yards wide on some holes. The bunkering at this course is brutal, with close to 200 bunkers firmly in play, including the iconic church pews.
The green complexes are also very challenging. Not only are the greens the fastest of any other course in North America, but Oakmont is filled with tricky reads and plenty of opportunities for tucked and dangerous pin locations. If that isn’t enough, they are Poa Annua grass and will be rolling between 14-15 in the Stimpmeter. The rough is ever-present and has grown out to 5+ inches, which will come into play both off the tee and also around the greens. There is very little fringe to speak of, providing next to no runoff before the ball vanishes into the rough.
The final score here is very likely to be in the single digits under par, and may end up closer to even or slightly over par. The weather is supposed to be a mixed bag; Thursday and Friday look pretty tame, but Saturday and Sunday are projected to have rain and winds gusting over 20 mph. There will be plenty of carnage this week.
Building Our Betting Model
- Fairways Gained
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained Par 5’s (500+ Yards)
- Strokes Gained Par 3 (180+ Yards)
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting on Poa/Very Fast
- 3 Putt Avoidance
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained Approach
Players to Target for US Open 2025:
Scottie Scheffler (+280) | ($14,400)
Scottie Scheffler is on very short odds this week, but he’s out-ranking everyone in almost every metric. It has become exceedingly difficult not to bet on Scheffler. He wins a lot. The only knock on his game is his putting, which has been better as of late but could very easily become his undoing here. Oakmont has some of the fastest and slipperiest greens anywhere on tour. If Scheffler remains adequate on the greens, he can handily win the US Open.
Scheffler’s approach game is nearly infallible, and his scrambling and wedge play are rated out at the top over the last 36 rounds. When he misses greens, he’s getting up and down and not giving any strokes back. I can’t find a valid reason not to bet on Scheffler to win again.
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500) | ($8,800)
I can’t quit Tommy Fleetwood. This is yet another situation that should allow him to play to his strengths. He rates out third overall for me, which is partially fueled by his never-ending string of top ten finishes. The overwhelming sentiment toward Fleetwood is that he can’t win, but the reality is that he can and will win. He is far too consistent and makes far too few mistakes not to get a win eventually.
Fleetwood tends to play even better in tough conditions and tougher scoring events, which is yet another reason why I like him for the US Open. As mentioned, the weather will come into play over the weekend and he is very capable of staying the course as the weather declines. He doesn’t rise to the top in any stat but Fleetwood rates well in all of them and that level of consistent play through the entire bag is precisely what Oakmont demands.
Sepp Straka (+5000) | ($7,700)
Sepp Straka is having an incredible year. I’m looking for accurate players and Straka rates out in the top three in every metric that involves accuracy. He is in contention almost every time he tees it up. He has two wins this season and finished third in his last start at The Memorial. Straka continues to model well, rating second overall this week. His accuracy on approach and ability to stick it close continue to drive the ranking.
Straka’s only concern is his around-the-green game in the rare instance that he misses the green. I feel more comfortable with him than most, given that he’s third overall in opportunities gained, and he is giving himself more birdie looks inside of 15 feet than most of this field. It’s not his scoring possibilities I’m looking at on this course, but rather his pinpoint accuracy that the stats can help underscore. Straka has been hot and I don’t see any signs of slowing down.
Denny McCarthy (+11000) | ($6,600)
Denny McCarthy is always live in an event that requires strong scrambling skills, avoiding big numbers and making a lot of putts. McCarthy isn’t going to jump off the page for accuracy, which is concerning, but this is a course where he can plot his way around and not feel the need to push the limits of his distance. McCarthy isn’t a long hitter and contrary to the speculation, this is not a course on which only bombers can find success. Oakmont can be beaten by restrained and calculated plotting. I believe McCarthy has the short game to avoid big numbers and can keep himself firmly in contention over these four days.
Outrights to Consider:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+750): I’m hopeful we get the mad scientist, not the Incredible Hulk. Bryson DeChambeau can plot his way around this course and avoid the tendency to bomb and gauge. I’m crossing my fingers that he shows restraint this week. If he does, he will be squarely in the mix come Sunday.
- Rory McIlroy (+1200): Rory McIlroy is fine, everyone! Don’t forget he just completed the “Career Grand Slam” and is still the best driver of a golf ball on Earth. Taking the star at double digits is an insult and an insane value. Don’t lose faith.
- Jon Rahm (+1200): John Rahm needs to stay out of his own way. If he can keep a level head, he can win here. The most interesting thing about Rahm this weekend is that he has the shot type I would look for in windy and wet conditions, low and penetrating, which could bode well with the forecast.
- Joaquin Niemann (+3000): Joaquin Niemann is fresh off a win on the LIV Tour and looked great in his last outing at the PGA Championship. He has an arsenal of shots and has the short game going.
- Shane Lowry (+4500): Shane Lowry is lingering around the top of the leaderboard every week. He is fourth overall for me this weekend and the accuracy and approach game are on fire. He can grind with the best of ’em and this course requires it.
Longshots To Consider:
- Patrick Reed (+10000): Patrick Reed is a grinder and tends to rise to the occasion in majors. There are some similarities to Augusta this week, and Reed has always been competitive at The Masters. Reed is a great scrambler and tends to have a very efficient putting game.
- Matt McCarty (+40000): Matt McCarty has been having a great season. He is one of the best short game players in this field, and his putting is up there with the likes of Sam Burns and Denny McCarthy. McCarty is underrated off the tee and rates inside of the top 20 for fairways gained. He also stays out of the rough better than most, which will be absolutely critical here this week.
DFS Plays for US Open 2025:
High-Tier Plays ($9,000+)
- Scottie Scheffler ($14,400)
- Rory McIlroy ($12,400)
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000)
- Jon Rahm ($10,200)
High-Tier Fades ($9,000+)
- Xander Schauffele ($10,400)
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,600)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,300)
Mid-Tier Plays ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800)
- Joaquin Niemann ($8,600)
- Brooks Koepka ($8,200)
- Shane Lowry ($7,800)
- Sepp Straka ($7,700)
- Russell Henley ($7,400)
- Corey Conners ($7,300)
Mid-Tier Fades ($8,900 to $7,000)
- Viktor Hovland ($8500)
- Hideki Matsuyama ($8000)
- Jordan Spieth ($7500)
- Tony Finau ($7300)
- Sam Burns ($7100)
- Wyndham Clark ($7000)
- Sungjae Im ($7000)
Low-Tier Plays (Below $6,900)
- Si Woo Kim ($6,900)
- Patrick Reed ($6,900)
- Daniel Berger ($6,800)
- J.J. Spaun ($6,700)
- Harris English ($6,700)
- Denny McCarthy ($6,600)
- Nick Taylor ($6,300)
- Michael Kim ($6,300)
- Eric Cole ($6,100)
- Ryan Gerard ($6,100)
- Matt McCarty ($5,700)
Low-Tier Fades (Below $6,900)
- Justin Rose ($6,900)
- Maverick McNealy ($6,800)
- Ryan Fox ($6,800)
- Tom Kim ($6,800)
- Dustin Johnson ($6,700)
- Andrew Novak ($6,300)
Good luck this week! Thanks for checking out our PGA Tour picks & predictions for who wins the US Open 2025.
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*Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA Today Sports*
