“Between Bets” is an article series revealing our staff’s best wagers across the NFL, NASCAR and PGA Tour. This week’s bets feature our favorite wagers for the 2023 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP 2023 Betting Picks
Collin Morikawa (+1100)
It’s been a while since I have bet Collin Morikawa outright, but his form coming in is too good to ignore. He rated out No.1 in my statistical model this week, and for good reason: He is possibly the most elite ball-striker on Tour. Morikawa is gaining strokes weekly off the tee and on approach, showing no signs of slowing. He doesn’t have a great course history, but his accuracy is enough to overcome that. The putter is what tends to hold him back, and even that has been steady when you look at his last 10 starts. He is No.1 in this field for good drives gained and No.1 for greens in regulation percentage.
At Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, you will need the most accurate players who avoid big numbers, and Morikawa is the best in the field in those departments. I love everything about how this sets up for him. He is very live to win the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP!
Min Woo Lee (+1600)
Speaking of players who avoid big numbers, Min Woo Lee is No.1 in this field for bogey avoidance and No.1 in scrambling, which will come in handy here. Lee is not always the best from the mid-range approach distances, but he does tend to be very consistent and accurate with the shorter irons. This being a shorter course than Tour average, I foresee him having those clubs on approach more often than not. He is a long hitter, which should help him on the par 5’s that are some of the best scoring opportunities for players at Accordia this week. He is consistently in the top five for strokes-gained par 5’s. That should remain the status quo this week.
I like Lee in tournaments that will be more of a grind and less of a birdie-fest. The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP sets up really well for him, and I think the books are hip to it with a shorter-than-normal number.
Adam Svensson (+4000)
Adam Svensson has been trending up gradually since early July and has been on quite the run. He has not missed a cut and has been gaining in every single shot-gained metric during this stretch. He is hot! As hot as Svensson gets, at least.
Joking aside, he sets up great here. He has been very accurate off the tee (No.3 in the field for good drives gained), and his approach game has been pretty stellar since July, gaining an average of 2.5 strokes per tournament. Svensson rates out fourth and third, respectfully, for the key proximity ranges of 125-150 and 200+ yards. He avoids big numbers and scores on par 3’s and par 5’s far more frequently than 90% of this field. I can see the path to victory for Svensson, and he will definitely be making the betting card at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP this week.
Sam Ryder (+8000)
I can’t understand why Sam Ryder is so long here. +8000 doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, given the form he is in. He rates out No.4 in my modeling overall and leads the field in shots gained approach over the last 24 rounds. Ryder is in the top 10 for every key proximity distance I looked at for this course, with his weakest range being inside of 100 yards. I don’t see him hitting many approach shots from less than 100 yards this week. This is a shorter course that Ryder will be able to exploit with his elite approach game. He has one start here.
Last year, he finished T36 – Not stellar, but he also didn’t have the form leading that he has currently. If this red-hot approach game continues, Ryder is definitely capable of winning here. The odds of 80/1 seem like an extreme value.
Other Outright Bets to Consider for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- Sungjae Im (+1400)
- Rickie Fowler (+1600)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
- Ben Griffin (+7000)
- Ryo Hisatsune (+7200)
Prop Bets to Consider for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- Top Rest-of-the-World Player
Thanks for reading my best bets for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and be sure to catch us live every Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST on the 19th Hole Live! Good luck this week!
*Photo Credit: Vincent Carchietta – USA TODAY Sports*